US embassy cable - 05KUWAIT1091

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 001091 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR NEA/ARPI BERNS AND DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, KWMN, PHUM, KU, WOMEN'S POLITICAL RIGHTS 
SUBJECT: KUWAITI WOMEN'S RIGHTS: WEEK IN REVIEW 
 
REF: A. KUWAIT 1016 
     B. KUWAIT 991 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Indications continue to point toward 
Parliamentary approval of the GOK's draft bill granting women 
the right to vote. The Ambassador's contacts during the week 
shared their belief that women will be voting in the 2007 
elections. Similar sentiments were heard on the diwaniya 
circuit. A second opinion poll this week showed Kuwaiti men's 
support for women's rights. A soon-to-be issued religious 
edict is to affirm the Amir's purview to rule on the suffrage 
issue. Even the GOK's opponents believe women will gain their 
political rights if the Government exerts sufficient pressure 
on the National Assembly. End summary. 
 
Counting the Votes: Senior Officials Predict GOK Victory 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
2. (C) During a March 13 meeting between the Ambassador and 
Energy Minister Ahmad Fahd Al-Sabah, the Minister declared 
that women's rights "100% will happen." He projected the 
current parliamentary breakdown at 32-31 in favor of the 
Government. Other officials have also pointed to an even 
split in the vote count. On March 15, an English-language 
newspaper reported that the Government is seven votes short 
of an simple majority of 33. Thirteen of 50 MPs have publicly 
announced support for the draft bill. Another ten MPs are 
officially undeclared. Fourteen of the 15 current ministers 
are anticipated to vote in favor; Justice Minister Ahmad 
Baqer, a Salafi Islamist, is the expected lone dissenter. 
Canadian and Italian diplomats speculated to PolChief that 
Baqer would be asked to resign so that he would not vote 
against the GOK. There has been no movement in that direction 
to date. 
 
3. (C) The Ambassador on March 14 met Shaykh Sabah Al-Khaled 
Al-Sabah, President of the National Security Bureau, who 
mentioned that the vote was turning into a big battle. 
Although it is a difficult issue, he added, there are 
positive indications that the Government will prevail. 
Regarding the Ambassador's public stance on women's rights, 
the Shaykh said that "everyone" knows the U.S. position, and 
no one would blame the Ambassador if he spoke out. However, 
he fell short of recommending a higher U.S. profile on the 
issue. Others with whom the Ambassador met this week all 
cautioned that U.S. re-statements of our well-known support 
for women's rights would likely be employed by those who 
argue that outsiders are imposing their will on Kuwait. 
 
4. (U) Kuwait TV and Al-Hurra Satellite televised a March 13 
debate during which Salafi MP Waleed Al-Tabtabaei stated his 
support for women's voting rights but opposition to women 
running for office, effectively confirming his "no" vote on 
the draft bill. Does he think the legislation will pass? 
"Absolutely not," he declared. In contrast, his fellow 
parliamentary opponents of the bill, MPs Marzouq Al-Hubaini 
and Mohammed Al-Busairi, agreed that the GOK will succeed as 
long as it continues to pressure the Assembly. 
 
Fatwa to Permit Women's Rights 
------------------------------ 
 
5. (U) The Minister of Islamic Affairs announced that a fatwa 
would be issued March 19, affirming Amir Shaykh Jaber 
Al-Sabah's perrogative to grant women the right to vote. The 
fatwa will acknowledge that Islamic scholars have differing 
views on the issue, and therefore the Amir must decide the 
matter. The new fatwa, which is expected to sway a portion of 
religious voters in favor of the GOK's position, will replace 
a 1985 edict that declared unequivocally that Islam forbids 
women from participating in the electoral process. 
 
 
New Poll Confirms Men Support Voting Rights 
------------------------------------------- 
 
6. (U) Half of Kuwaiti men support granting full political 
rights to women according to an opinion poll published March 
15 in an Arabic-language daily, mirroring a similar result 
from a survey of men and women (reftel A). Twenty-two percent 
of respondents back the woman's right to vote, but not to 
seek elected office while 28% of men oppose women's 
participation in the political process. The poll included a 
random sample of approximately 2,000 men. 
 
 
Women's Rights: Talk of the Town 
-------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Women's political rights was the main topic of 
conversation during March 15 visits to several diwaniyas, 
drawing spirited discussion from attendees, most of whom 
agreed that the new law would be passed when voted on by the 
Parliament. Prominent columnist Abdulatif Al-Duaij insisted 
that expanding voting rights to Kuwait's female population 
was a logical and correct progression of Kuwait's democratic 
trend. When asked why the GOK had chosen to push for these 
rights now, he cited unspecified "foreign pressures" as well 
as a desire to avoid the embarrassment of not being seen as a 
leader in the Gulf. Another guest commented that recent 
developments -- voting in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, the deaths 
of Arafat and Hariri and subsequent calls for political 
reform -- spurred the GOK to take action and not be left 
behind. Although one of the diwaniya guests did not agree 
with expanding voting rights to women, all agreed the GOK 
would spare no effort to get the law passed. 
 
8. (C) Echoing what the National Assembly Speaker told the 
Ambassador on March 5 (reftel B), Deputy National Assembly 
Speaker Meshari Al-Anjari told Poloff at a diwaniya that PM 
Shaykh Sabah would threaten MPs with the dissolution of the 
National Assembly if members proved obstructive to GOK 
efforts to amend Kuwait's electoral law to expand suffrage to 
women.  In the event of a dissolution, Al-Anjari said, the 
Prime Minister planned to have an Amiri decree issued 
granting women political rights (as was done in 1999) and 
calling for new elections.  In a fait accompli, any new 
National Assembly would then be accountable to its new female 
constituents, making a repeat of the 1999 defeat of the Amiri 
decree unlikely. Al-Anjari said he expected the National 
Assembly to vote on the issue of women's political rights by 
"the end of April." 
 
9. (C) Liberal MP Jamal Al-Omar spoke extensively with 
PolChief and Poloff about the prospects for the law. He said 
that although he supported the expansion of voting rights, he 
and other like-minded MPs were prepared for an inevitable 
short-term diminution of the power of progressive MPs should 
it be passed. He said that the rapid expansion of the voting 
base in his and other districts would leave progressive MP's 
scrambling to shore up the female vote, whereas Islamists, 
who are much more organized, could rely upon their women to 
follow their lead at the polls. Al-Omar predicted the first 
two election cycles after extending the franchise to women 
would be dominated by Islamists. Despite the short-term 
damage, he said, progressives in the National Assembly would 
support the law, which he characterized as "not popular," as 
a matter of principle. He opined that the GOK could pass the 
law now with a simple majority, but was working hard on 
undecided MPs so the legislation would pass with the broadest 
possible support. He discounted reports that the Prime 
Minister would ask the Amir to dissolve Parliament, but said 
a Cabinet reshuffle was possible and needed. 
 
Uncle Sam behind Push for Women's Rights 
---------------------------------------- 
 
10. (U) At a March 11 rally in Jahra, MP Mohammed Al-Busairi 
of the Islamic Constitutional Movement (ICM), Kuwait's 
version of the Muslim Brotherhood, attributed the GOK's 
renewed push for women's rights to an attempt to appease the 
United States. Al-Busairi said, "President Bush has recently 
praised all GCC states except Kuwait. This has motivated the 
Prime Minister and certain parties to move for approval of 
women's rights..." Meanwhile, ICM member Mubarak Sunaideh 
echoed a commonly heard refrain that the West is pressuring 
Kuwait to grant women's rights only 40 years after the 
country's founding even though most Western nations waited 
more than 100 years to extend universal suffrage. 
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