US embassy cable - 05ROME897

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ROME 000897 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2015 
TAGS: KNNP, PARM, PREL, TRGY, MNUC, IR, IT, IAEA 
SUBJECT: ITALIAN AMBASSADOR TO TEHRAN SHARES INSIGHTS ON 
IRANIAN POLITICS AND SOCIETY 
 
REF: DUBAI 838 
 
Classified By: Pol M/C Tom Countryman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary. Italy's Ambassador to Iran believes that most 
Iranians favor better relations with the United States, but 
at the same time support Iran's efforts to obtain nuclear 
capabilities.  The upcoming Presidential elections could help 
resolve this dilemma by offering prospects, if Rafsanjani 
were to become President, of more constructive cooperation 
with the United States.  The Ambassador also offered 
suggestions on how the United States could better target its 
programs aimed at promoting reform in Iran, and said that the 
G-8 offers a valuable forum for discussing Iran, since it 
would help reign in Russia.  End summary. 
 
Nukes or Better Relationship with the US? 
----------------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Italy's Ambassador to Iran, Roberto Toscano, told Pol 
MC and PolOff during his recent visit to Rome that most 
Iranians list improved relations with the United States as a 
top priority.  The only other equally pro-American country, 
he said, is Cuba.  At the same time, however, an equally 
large majority of Iranians view their nuclear program as an 
issue of national pride.  They look at Pakistan and "other" 
regional countries with nuclear capabilities and ask, why not 
Iran, a major power in the region?  Toscano acknowledged that 
the Iranian government's quest for nuclear capabilities puts 
it at odds with the desire of most Iranians to have a better 
relationship with the US. Iran faces the dilemma of how to 
choose between these two incompatible goals, he said, and the 
West needs to help force their hand. 
 
3. (C) On Iranian interference in Iraq, Toscano said he 
believes that the Iranian government recognizes that a stable 
Iraq is in its own interests.  Toscano suggested that the G-8 
would be an excellent venue in which to discuss Iran, not 
least of which because it would draw Russia in.  He didn't 
understand why the UK resisted this idea. 
 
Presidential Elections Offer Glimmer of Hope 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Toscano said that Iran is having difficulties coming 
up with two viable conservative candidates (he dismissed any 
chances of a reformist candidate) for the June Presidential 
election.  Rafsanjani, he said, would be the lesser of the 
evils, and would offer better chances for improved relations 
with the United States.  He argued that Rafsanjani wants to 
reestablish dialogue with the United States, and, as someone 
who could actually bring some power back to the Presidency, 
would have some say over the nuclear program.  In the 
meantime, the mullahs are hanging on to power as long as they 
can and, at least until the elections, any renouncement of 
the nuclear program would be "political suicide."  There will 
therefore be no resolution on the nuclear issue before the 
elections. 
 
Iranian Society: Potential But No Will For Political Reform 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
5. (C) Toscano described Iranian society as having a young, 
educated, and sophisticated population.  Iranians travel 
abroad extensively and the better off often maintain separate 
homes (along with separate passports) in London, Paris, etc. 
Unfortunately, however, after decades of "revolution," most 
people are resigned to the current political situation and do 
not believe that anything will change or that there are 
adequate political mechanisms to promote change.  Young 
people cannot reconcile the country's wealth with the 
widespread poverty and blame it on the mullahs' blatant 
kleptocracy.   And, Toscano said, they are right. 
 
US Should Shoot For More Bang for the Buck 
------------------------------------------ 
 
6. (C) Toscano offered suggestions on how US programs could 
have a more effective impact on cultivating reformists in 
Iran.  Iranians, he said, already have plenty of access to 
the outside world through satellite TV, the internet, 
international travel, etc.  Rather than throw money into 
radio broadcasting (along the lines of the VOA program during 
the Cold War), Toscano advocated more strategic funding 
initiatives, such as sponsoring purely cultural exchanges and 
other events that can help rekindle Iranian interest in 
political activism.  He cited the visit of a US philosophy 
 
 
professor as having been a major event, intellectually and 
politically.  Toscano was working on an idea to bring in a 
group of Italian Christian Democrats to show that a 
faith-based party can play a role in politics without having 
religion dominate its agenda. 
 
SEMBLER 
 
 
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 2005ROME00897 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL