US embassy cable - 05DARESSALAAM551

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000551 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: 3/16/15 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, EAID, TZ 
SUBJECT: Bumps in the Road for Voter Registration on 
Zanzibar 
 
 
Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason 
1.4(b) 
 
REF: A) Dar es Salaam 532, B)Dar es Salaam 342, 
C) Dar es Salaam 317, D) Dar es Salaam 214 
 
1. (C) Summary: At the midpoint of voter registration, 
the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) continues to 
conduct a generally peaceful and credible exercise. 
Informed observers nonetheless note some disturbing 
recent developments that could undermine the 
credibility of the Permanent Voters Register (PVR). 
The astonishingly large turnout at some constituencies 
in North Ugunja, and the disproportionate registration 
of young men at some centers, gives weight to 
accusations that some party activists are resorting to 
irregular tactics to pad the voter rolls.  The ZEC's 
surprise announcement that it would undertake 
redistricting now, rather than after the elections, is 
fueling suspicions of pre-election gerrymandering. 
Members of the diplomatic group feel blindsided, but 
see few alternatives to their previously unreserved 
support for the ZEC.  End Summary 
 
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The ZEC Posts Astonishing Registration Results 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
2. (U)  The ZEC's voter registration teams completed 
voter registration on Ugunja Island's Northern Region 
February 18, then opened registration in the Southern 
Region a few days later.  Registration has proceeded 
quietly in the pro-CCM south, even as the ZEC compiled 
and published the final tallies for voter registration 
in the north.  Zanzibar is highly politicized, so it's 
not surprising that Zanzibaris are turning out in 
droves to register.  The results in some Northern 
Region constituencies, however, are causing raised 
eyebrows among opposition party leaders, academics, 
and foreign diplomats alike.  According to the ZEC, 
110 percent of the estimated electorate registered to 
vote throughout Ugunja's Northern Region.  In the 
northern constituencies of Bumbwini, Donge and 
Tumbatu, registration tallies were respectively 115 
percent, 121 percent and 122 percent of the estimates. 
The Northern Region figures are particularly startling 
when they are compared with registration figures for 
Pemba Island, the stronghold of the opposition CUF, 
where a more reasonable 83 percent of the estimated 
electorate turned out to register. 
 
3. (C) The estimated size of the electorate is based 
on data from the 2002 Census.  Midway through the 
North Region's registration process, the Acting 
Minister for Good Governance had told poloff that he 
expected very high registration tallies, because so 
many people had moved to Ugunja Island since 2002. 
These three constituencies are far from Uguja's 
booming tourist destinations, however, and it does not 
seem likely they have received such a large influx of 
newcomers in the last three years.  All three of these 
constituencies do have one characteristic in common: 
these are constituencies where the opposition CUF 
party is strong enough to pose a challenge in what is 
otherwise a pro-CCM region. 
 
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Rough Edges Appear in a Smooth Procedure 
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4. (C) The January newsletter by the Tanzanian 
election observation NGO "TEMCO" had a generally 
favorable portrayal of voter registration on Zanzibar, 
and reported only minimal procedural errors and 
irregularities.  (TEMCO's observation of voter 
registration on Zanzibar is supported entirely through 
ESF funding.)  In a March 8 meeting, TEMCO director 
Rwekaza Mukandala said that the next newsletter would 
be more critical.  Mukandala described several 
practices that became widespread during registration 
in Ugunja's Northern Region, which seemed intended to 
pad the voter rolls. 
 
5. (C) Professor Mukandala was especially concerned 
about registration activity in the two newly- 
established and controversial centers in Bumbweni 
constituency, Pangatupu and Kichaka Pwiriri.  These 
two centers are very remote, yet large numbers of 
voters registered there, including a disproportionate 
number of young men.  Mukandala thought these facts 
supported the opposition's complaints that the CCM 
government had deliberately transferred members of the 
volunteer security forces to register in the most 
competitive constituencies.  (In a March 9 meeting, 
CUF Secretary General Seiff Sharif Hamad produced 
numbers: he said that 1,700 voters had registered in 
Pangatupo, even though the nearby village had a 
population of only 350 people.  Hamad said that two 
thirds of Pangatupo's registered voters were male, 
with the 18 -20 age cohort predominating.) 
 
6. (C) Professor Mukandala thought that both CCM and 
CUF partisans were guilty of another irregular 
practice that may have been widespread in Northern 
Region, the registration of underage voters.  In 
addition, CCM party agents questioned the eligibility 
of prospective voters originating from pro-CUF Pemba 
Island, while CUF agents challenged those who traced 
their roots to the mainland.  At least some of these 
challenges may be justified, in the light of reports 
that activists from both parties sought to facilitate 
registration of visitors whose current residency on 
Zanzibar was open to question.  Mukandala noted that a 
mere 20,000 votes could swing Zanzibar's Presidential 
election.  The contests in some of the Isles' small 
constituencies could be swung by a mere handful of 
extra votes. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Subjective Decisions Cloud an Objective Process 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
7.  The ZEC's computerized voter registration 
technology, funded in part by ESF, is capable of 
storing vast amounts of data, photographs and 
thumbprints of registered voters, and of cross- 
checking for duplication.  Given the paucity of 
reliable documents on Zanzibar, however, local 
officials at the registration centers often must make 
subjective decisions about which applicants are 
eligible for entry into this sophisticated database. 
Under the reformed voter registration procedures, 
mandated by the bipartisan Muafaka Accord and later 
written into law, the highest-ranking ZEC official at 
a registration center makes the final determination 
about eligibility for registration. 
 
8. (C) Troubling reports suggest that the local shehas 
(the government-appointed village headmen) sometimes 
made the final decisions about voter eligibilty. 
(March 15 press reports said the prominent opposition 
leaders in the Southern Region, including IV grantee 
Naila Jiddawi, were denied registration after running 
afoul of the local sheha.)  Many shehas keep an 
informal list of the individuals living in their 
districts.  Reportedly some ZEC officials relied on 
the shehas' lists to determine residency, even though 
some CUF leaders had previously discouraged the party 
faithful from registering with the "pro-CCM" shehas. 
An academic specialist on Zanzibar politics, Dr. 
Kjetil Tronvoll, told a group of donor-country 
diplomats that some party agents may also have had 
undue influence. Under the reformed procedures, party 
agents stationed at registration centers are 
authorized to observe and advise on the registration 
proceedings.  In some centers, however, the CCM agents 
reportedly co-opted agents from some of the smaller 
opposition parties to build cheering sections big 
enough to shout down CUF agents and ZEC officials 
alike. 
 
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The ZEC Opts for Re-districting Now 
----------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) As political tensions increased, the ZEC added 
fuel to the fire with its late February announcement 
that it would complete redistricting before the 
elections.  All observers agree that redistricting is 
necessary and overdue, since the 2002 census showed 
significant population movements from Pemba to Ugunja 
Island.  The timing of the ZEC's announcement 
nonetheless raised suspicions.  Previously, the ZEC 
had planned redistricting for March 2004, but the 
exercise threatened to be administratively difficult 
and politically contentious; ZEC Commissioners 
privately told several diplomats that they would 
postpone redistricting until after the 2005 election. 
The ZEC's recent reversal sparked controversy. 
Politically-diverse Ugunja Island stands to gain three 
seats in the Zanzibar House of Representatives, and 
the opposition is convinced the government will 
attempt to gerrymander the new districts to minimize 
their influence.  Reportedly, the ZEC will divide 
small, rural pro-CCM constituencies to accommodate the 
new seats, rather than adding new districts to 
populous, pro-CUF Stonetown.  CUF leaders fret that 
the new constituencies will give the CCM government 
more opportunities to slip extra voters onto the 
rolls, since new boundary lines might not coincide 
with those used during voter registration. 
 
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The Diplomats Discuss their Options 
----------------------------------- 
 
10. (C) A group of donor-country diplomats, assembled 
at the Norwegian Embassy for a March 10 lecture by Dr. 
Tronvoll, were dismayed by some of the recent 
developments in voter registration.  The consensus was 
that the top Zanzibar government officials and CCM 
party leaders had bullied the ZEC into conducting a 
questionable re-districting process and opening the 
Pangatupu and Kichaka Pwiriri centers to quietly 
register militia members and other "extra" voters. 
Canadian First Secretary Jeff McLaren told the group 
he felt betrayed by the ZEC's apparent tolerance for 
shoddy and opaque procedures. 
 
11. (C) Poloff and others reminded the group that, 
whatever the ZEC's failings, the law gave the ZEC sole 
authority to organize and conduct elections and 
declare the winner.  Ultimately, it was up to the ZEC 
to ensure that the process was credible and acceptable 
to the Zanzibari electorate.  The diplomatic community 
could best help by 
 
-- continuing to encourage the political parties to 
challenge disputed registrations, using the legal 
procedures established by the ZEC, 
 
-- continuing to support independent observation of 
voter registration, 
 
-- encouraging the ZEC to consult regularly with the 
political parties and the other Zanzibar stakeholders, 
to keep them informed and to obtain their input on 
redistricting and other electoral procedures, and to 
build stakeholder confidence in those procedures, 
 
-- talking regularly with top CCM and government 
leaders to urge them to respect the ZEC's 
independence, and to remind them that there will be 
repercussions if Zanzibar has a third conflictive 
election. 
 
12. (C) Comment:  During the by-elections of 2003, the 
ZEC demonstrated that it could conduct a free, fair 
and credible election.  During the "Pemba phase" of 
voter registration, the ZEC demonstrated that it could 
handle the sophisticated technology and procedures for 
establishing a Permanent Voters Register; the ZEC also 
demonstrated that it could withstand considerable 
political pressure and maintain its operational 
independence.  Unfortunately, as registration proceeds 
in the high-stakes and closely-contested 
constituencies of Unguja Island, the ZEC is 
demonstrating that it can sometimes also be bullied. 
Muafaka stakeholders and the international community 
have already made a significant investment in 
strengthening the ZEC, and in building its capacity to 
conduct credible elections.  Democratic development on 
Zanzibar can only lose if we give up on the ZEC.  At 
the moment, there are no real alternatives to pressing 
ahead with our efforts to support the ZEC.  End 
Comment. 
 
OWEN