US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN476

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000476 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/ACE, NEA/ARPI 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2025 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, GG, IR, AM 
SUBJECT: DESPITE IRAN PIPELINE HEADLINES, ARMENIA-GEORGIA 
PM MEETINGS MOSTLY PHOTO OPS, COOPERATION TALK 
 
REF: TBILISI 605 
 
Classified By: DCM A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) Despite headlines suggesting that the March 11-12 
visit of Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Noghaideli focused on 
energy issues including the announced Iran-Armenia gas 
pipeline project, sources tell us that this was only casually 
mentioned during one of the sessions and that the quick 
series of meetings was mostly protocolary in nature.  The one 
deliverable to come out of the meetings was a formal 
commitment by the two Prime Ministers to revive the mostly 
defunct Georgia-Armenia Inter-Governmental Commission.  Our 
sources in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of 
Finance and Economy told us that meetings were quick and 
suggested that the offhand nature of the visit resulted from 
an effort to facilitate the meetings so that not too much 
time would pass between Noghaideli's meetings in Azerbaijan 
and his trip to Yerevan.  Armenian Prime Minister Andranik 
Markarian, who hosted the visit, featured more prominently 
than usual in the public events.  The Nogadieli visit may 
have done more to help Markarian's image here in Yerevan than 
it did to advance Georgia-Armenia relations.  End Summary. 
 
 
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CASUAL, "UNPROFESSIONAL" MENTION OF PIPELINE 
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2. (C) Press coverage of the March 11-12 visit of Georgian 
Prime Minster Zurab Noghaideli suggested that the meetings 
revolved around the issue of the announced Iran-Armenia gas 
pipeline.  Our sources tell us, however, that the issue was 
only casually mentioned during one of the sessions. 
Discussion of the pipeline (including a suggestion that it 
eventually extend into Georgia) was initiated by the Georgian 
side and, according to the Deputy Minister of Energy, was 
viewed by the GOAM as a mostly "unprofessional" overture.  He 
told us that they raised the subject without a solid analysis 
of the data and without any investigation about the 
feasibility on the Georgian side. 
 
3. (C) Beyond what was discussed between the two Prime 
Ministers, Isayan explained that the Georgians appear 
concerned about dependence on Russia for energy and that they 
have made clear in the past that an alternative source of gas 
to Armenia would, in their opinion, remove a major 
disincentive for Russia to cut gas deliveries to the line 
that serves both Georgia and Armenia.  He said that the GOAM 
will float the possibility of an extension with the Russian 
government during Putin's visit to Armenia scheduled for the 
end of March (Note:  the GOAM and the GOR had reportedly 
agreed that Armenia would limit the pipeline to a diameter 
that precluded the possibility of onward sales of gas.  In 
order to extend the pipeline to Georgia, this agreement would 
have to be modified.  End Note.) 
 
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PRIME MINISTERS REVIVE GEORGIA-ARMENIA COMMISSION 
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4. (C) The one deliverable to come out of the meetings was a 
formal commitment by the two Prime Ministers to revive the 
mostly defunct Georgia-Armenia Inter-Governmental Commission 
(a forum for discussion of bi-lateral assistance and 
cooperation).  Advisor to the Minister of Finance and Economy 
Mher Hayryan told us that there was pressure on both the 
Ministry of Finance and Economy and Prime Minister's Office 
to take advantage of the new Georgian counterpart's arrival 
to reinvigorate the institution.  President Robert Kocharian 
had reportedly gotten word from Armenian groups abroad of a 
perception that the two governments were not cooperating on 
technical issues and that Georgia-Armenia relations had not 
moved past pleasantries at the presidential level following 
events in Georgia in 2004.  The Prime Ministers announced 
that the next session of the Commission would take place in 
2005. 
 
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KEEPING UP APPEARANCES 
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5. (C) Our sources in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs told us 
that the meetings were quick, mostly protocolary and even 
suggested that the almost unannounced nature of the meeting 
(as suggested by some of the more reactionary local press) 
was part of the perennial local effort to maintain 
appearances vis-a-vis Azerbaijan.  Noghaideli's last-minute 
travel to Azerbaijan March 4-6 (reftel) had reportedly raised 
concerns that too much time would pass before he came to 
Yerevan and therefore leave the impression that Georgia 
valued its relations with Azerbaijan more than its relation 
with Armenia.  The Armenians found a mutually acceptable 
window for Noghaideli's visit and put the itinerary together 
"over the course of a few days." 
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COMMENT:  MARKARIAN ACTUALLY THE WINNER? 
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6. (C) Armenian Prime Minister Andranik Markarian, who hosted 
the visit, featured more prominently than usual in the public 
events and even received a lukewarm vote of confidence from 
President Robert Kocharian in the ensuing press coverage. 
Following February's press rumors that the President 
Kocharian and Prime Minister were on the outs, the Noghaideli 
visit may have done more to help enhance Markarian's image 
here in Yerevan than it did to advance Georgia-Armenia 
relations. 
EVANS