US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK1933

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001933 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/BCLTV. HQ USPACOM FOR FPA (HUSO) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TH, Southern Thailand, Elections - Thai, BURMA, US-Thai FTA 
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR CALLS ON FORMER PRIME MINISTER CHUAN 
LEEKPAI 
 
REF: (A) BANGKOK 1578 (B) BANGKOK 0948 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR RALPH L. BOYCE.  REASON: 1.4 (D) 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  During a March 8 meeting with the 
Ambassador, former Prime Minister and Democrat Party (DP) 
leader Chuan Leekpai said that Prime Minister Thaksin did not 
understand the problems in southern Thailand and indeed his 
policies were exacerbating the situation.  Chuan feared that 
if Thaksin's hard-line policies in the region continue, 
international terrorist organizations such as the Jemaah 
Islamiyah (JI) or al-Qaeda could be tempted to take advantage 
of the situation.  Chuan described the recent general 
elections as the dirtiest he had seen in his political career 
and accused the Thaksin administration of using troops and 
provincial government officials to interfere in the voting. 
Chuan described Thaksin as a formidable politician who uses 
his control over much of the media to extend his political 
power.  End Summary. 
 
CHUAN CONCERNED OVER SITUATION IN THAILAND'S DEEP SOUTH 
 
2.  (C)  During a March 8 meeting with the Ambassador, former 
Prime Minister and Democrat Party leader Chuan Leekpai said 
that Thaksin's policies are exacerbating the situation in the 
southern Muslim majority provinces bordering Malaysia.  To 
Chuan, the Government does not appear to be interested in 
solving the real problem, but variously blames the violence 
on drugs, criminal gangs and separatists.  Thaksin's approach 
was superficial and frivolous, he said.  The Thai Rak Thai's 
(TRT) massive electoral loss in the southern border provinces 
demonstrated the populace's rejection of his policies.  "They 
saw the video of the security forces actions at Tak Bai," 
Chuan said. 
 
3.  (C)  According to Chuan, when the military was initially 
in charge of security in the region during the tenure of the 
Southern Border Provinces Center and the 
Civilian-Police-Military Task Force 43, things were 
relatively peaceful.  With Thaksin's disbanding of those 
structures and the ascendancy of the police in these "special 
areas," the situation deteriorated.  Muslim feelings of 
alienation increased. 
 
4.  (C)  The Ambassador noted that the Indonesian Government 
had a policy of recruiting police from local villages.  Thai 
officials, on the other hand, have maintained that most Thai 
Muslims in the southern region who take the written test fail 
because of inadequate education from the "pondok" (Islamic 
school) system.  This results in a police force that is from 
the outside and does not understand local culture and 
customs.  The Ambassador added that Thaksin seemed 
insensitive to Thai Muslim feelings by initially blaming the 
suffocation deaths at Tak Bai on the weakness of arrested 
protesters from Ramadan fasting. 
 
SAYS THAKSIN ALIENATING MUSLIM NEIGHBORS 
 
5.  (C)  Chuan said that he was concerned that if Thaksin's 
hard-line policies continue, international terrorist 
organizations such as Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) or al-Qaeda could 
be tempted to try to take advantage of the situation created 
by the conflict.  He criticized Thaksin,s accusations that 
neighboring countries Malaysia and Indonesia are sites for 
training separatists.  This is not the policy of these 
countries and all Thaksin succeeds in doing is to anger them, 
Chuan said.  Chuan noted that Thaksin did not call Prime 
Minister Badawi to discuss a suspected separatist held by the 
Malaysian authorities but instead talked to the press about 
wanting the prisoner turned over to Thailand.  There are 
complicated ties involved between Muslims living in southern 
Thailand and in Malaysia, he continued.  Malaysia and 
Indonesia are majority Muslim countries and their people feel 
for their fellow Muslims in southern Thailand when they see 
films of Tak Bai.  Chuan also expressed concern that Muslim 
religious schools, by not concentrating on teaching 
marketable skills, are producing graduates with poor 
employment prospects who could turn to violence in 
frustration.  Chuan said that the southern Thailand region 
needs investment in education and industry.  He noted the 
earlier success of "growth triangles" in the region and 
suggested that an Indonesia/Malaysia/South Thailand triangle 
with complementary factory and industrial production would 
energize the region's economy. 
 
6.  (C)  The Ambassador pointed out that in Indonesia, 
religious schools in 99 percent of the cases are moderate, 
almost secular in tone and include mainstream subjects in 
their curriculum.  He noted that in the three Thai provinces 
Sharia law governs issues such as birth, death, marriage and 
divorce.  Religion and country should be able to coexist, he 
said, and all could be made to feel Thai and not singled out 
as different. 
 
RECENT ELECTION "DIRTIEST" YET 
 
7.  (C)  Turning to party politics, the Ambassador asked 
about the recent elections in which the Democrat Party (DP) 
was massively defeated by Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (TRT) 
party.  Chuan responded that election was the dirtiest he had 
seen in his political career.  He accused the Thaksin 
administration of using the bureaucracy to influence the 
voting.  He said that provincial governors and police had 
interfered in the election process and that soldiers were 
used to vote in early elections in attempts to unseat DP 
candidates. 
 
8.  (C)  Chuan specifically noted as an example the election 
campaign fought by prominent DP MP (and former foreign 
minister) Surin Pitsuwan in Nakorn Sri Thammarat.  Surin 
fought a tough race against his TRT challenger.  Fortunately, 
Chuan said, Surin collected enough support to overcome the 
thousands of votes by troops bussed in by the government to 
vote for the TRT candidate in early voting, a misuse of a 
procedure that allows voters unable to get to the polls on 
election day (such as soldiers on duty) to cast ballots 
beforehand (Bangkok 0948).  Chuan said that the use of army 
and police personnel to interfere in the election was 
indicative of increasing control in general by Thaksin.  He 
said that Thaksin controls virtually all of the media, 
including television stations such as ITV and UBC.  The Prime 
Minister has a strong sense of public relations style and 
will continue to use his control over the media for his own 
political ends, he predicted. 
 
ABHISIT HAS WORK CUT OUT FOR HIM 
 
9.  (C)  Following the DP,s loss and Banyat Bantadtan,s 
resignation, it is now Abhisit Vejjajiva,s turn as the 
party's leader, Chuan said.  The DP would have lost by less 
if Abhisit had been leader at the time of the election. 
Banyat was a straight talker but he couldn't compete with the 
populist message of Thaksin.  Abhisit will have to do a 
better job inspiring the voters in his speeches. 
 
BURMA 
 
10.  (C)  The Ambassador noted the unpopularity of Thaksin's 
Burma policy in the United States.  He pointed to sharp 
reaction to Thaksin's recent reported characterization of 
Than Shwe's rationale for Aung San Suu Kyi's continued 
detention as "reasonable."  Even if the remarks were quoted 
out of context, the widespread impression is that Thaksin is 
acting as an apologist for the Burmese regime and his 
engagement policy is helping it to hold onto power. 
 
11.  (C)  Chuan responded that as Prime Minister he never 
visited Burma under the military regime.  He didn't want to 
demonstrate any form of support or sense of legitimacy to the 
regime.  He did meet Than Shwe in Chiang Rai to discuss 
counter-narcotics and border security issues.  Than Shwe 
promised to cooperate on those issues.  Chuan recalled that 
he had used the army to clamp down on violence along the 
border.  He described Than Shwe as a "religious" man who told 
Chuan that he hoped one day to visit the Buddhist temples of 
Thailand. 
 
12.  (C)  The Ambassador said that ASEAN should play a more 
assertive role on the Burma issue.  Next year, Burma will 
have the Chair of ASEAN and that is a problem.  The 
Ambassador cited as "encouraging" the recent efforts by the 
Inter-Parliamentary Myanmar Committee, made up of 
parliamentarians from some of the ASEAN member countries, to 
quietly address this issue (see Bangkok 1578). 
 
CAUTIOUS RESPONSE ON FTA 
 
13.  (C)  In response to the Ambassador's question regarding 
a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the U.S., Chuan said that 
he supports it, but with reservations.  He noted that 
Thailand's FTA with China was "not to our advantage."  He 
said that unfortunately in trade, "one party prospers more 
than the other."  The biggest challenge is to figure out how 
to adjust to the market changes that come about from free 
trade patterns, and how to cushion the effects as industries 
have to restructure in the face of competition.  This is 
difficult to explain to the public, he concluded. 
BOYCE