US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI1125

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001125 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/TC 
DEPT PASS AIT/W 
/ 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, TW 
SUBJECT: NEW KAOHSIUNG MAYOR ON CROSS-STRAIT AND OTHER 
ISSUES 
 
 
Classified By: ROBERT W. FORDEN, AIT KAOHSIUNG PRINCIPAL OFFICER. 
REASON:  1.4(B/D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C) In an initial call by AIT/K Branch Chief on newly 
appointed Kaohsiung Acting Mayor Chen Chi-Mai, Chen described 
himself as a DPP moderate who sees expanded cross-Strait 
economic ties as the best way to build confidence across the 
Strait.  Widely seen as a protege of President Chen, Mayor 
Chen took office last month to serve out the remaining 22 
months of now-Premier Frank Hsieh's term as Kaohsiung Mayor. 
A former three-term legislator from Kaohsiung, Chen is the 
son of former Presidential Office Deputy Secretary General 
Chen Che-nan, himself a major powerbroker in Kaohsiung 
politics.  Chen saw Beijing's passage of an Anti-Secession 
Law as a major mistake and said a Taiwan reaction was 
inevitable, likely to include a freeze on progress in 
cross-Strait flights as well as a major Legislative Yuan 
debate and action.  He believed a referendum would be 
proposed and fail, but might lead the LY to lower the 
threshold requirements for holding referenda in the future. 
Surprisingly, Chen made a point of discounting the widespread 
belief that he was appointed because of support from 
President Chen, instead attributing his appointment to 
Premier Hsieh's recommendation.  Chen expressed optimism for, 
and implicit support of, Hsieh's chances to win the 
Presidency in 2008.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (C) In an initial call by AIT/K Branch Chief on Chen 
Chi-Mai, Kaohsiung's new Acting Mayor, Chen described himself 
as a DPP moderate, especially with respect to cross-Strait 
issues.  He noted that cross-Strait relations were 
characterized by both cooperation and competition, and he 
believed the best approach was to identify and pursue areas 
of mutual benefit.  He acknowledged, however, that his 
moderate approach on this issue might bring pressure from the 
11-12 percent of Kaohsiung's population -- the highest of any 
of Taiwan's cities or counties -- that supports the Taiwan 
Solidarity Union (TSU) and Taiwan independence. 
 
Taiwan Reaction to Anti-Seccession Law Inevitable 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
3.  (C) Chen saw the expected passage of China's 
Anti-Seccession Law as a major mistake.  He believed 
Beijing's pursuit of the law was primarily for domestic 
political reasons, but it would unfortunately have extremely 
negative repercussions for cross-Strait relations.  Chen said 
a Taiwan reaction was inevitable.  He expected that at a 
minimum, progress on direct flights would be frozen and 
believed it could even last long enough to prevent a repeat 
of Chinese New Year flights next winter.  Chen also stated 
that a debate and some action in Taiwan's LY would be 
unavoidable.  The TSU would likely propose a referendum and, 
while it would likely fail, Chen believed the LY might end up 
lowering the threshold for holding referenda in the future. 
Overall, the TSU would likely take the opportunity to step up 
its activities considerably and Chen worried that the result 
would create new obstacles to making cross-Strait progress. 
 
Criticism of Chen-Soong Meeting Will Not Last 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Commenting on criticism of President Chen for his 
meeting with People First Party Chairman James Soong, Mayor 
Chen said the President had little choice.  President Chen 
had no more elections to run and primarily was concerned with 
his place in the history books.  However, without a 
legislative majority, he had to compromise to get through 
legislation that would help ensure his legacy.  Mayor Chen 
saw the President's three priorities as boosting the economy, 
improving cross-Strait relations and completing 
constitutional revisions to make Taiwan's constitution 
relevant and improve its political system.  While Mayor Chen 
understood those in the DPP who had criticized Chen for the 
meeting with Soong, he did not believe the criticism would 
last nor would it have much impact on future elections. 
Looking at the year-end elections for county magistrates and 
city mayors, Chen said he saw no reason for concern anywhere 
in the South; all the DPP incumbents were safe. 
 
Will KMT Elders Accept Ma? 
-------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Chen, who worked closely with many Pan Blue 
legislators during his 10 years in the LY, said he did not 
believe Wang Jyn-ping had much chance to win the Kuomintang 
(KMT) Chairmanship.  Mainlanders in the KMT liked Taipei 
Mayor Ma Ying-jeou and so did reformers.  Wang has local 
factional support in the South, but cannot match Ma for 
charisma.  The wild card, Chen believed, was whether KMT 
party elders could accept Ma, who is seen by many of them as 
weak and easily backed down.  Chen believed if current KMT 
Chairman Lien Chan decides to stay, Ma would not fight.  For 
the DPP, Chen noted, Lien continuing to run the KMT would be 
the best possible result. 
 
Looking at 2008 Presidential Race -- Hsieh will Beat Ma 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
6.  (C) Turning to the next presidential race, Chen expressed 
confidence that Premier Frank Hsieh would prove a formidable 
candidate.  Hsieh has strong DPP credentials, but is also 
seen as moderate, safe and stable.  He is more popular than 
DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang, Chen opined.  While Hsieh did 
not have anything like Ma Ying-jeou's support in the North, 
Hsieh would do very well in the central regions and of course 
even more strongly in the South. 
 
7.  (C) On the Pan-Blue side, Chen said Ma Ying-jeou had both 
strengths and weaknesses.  He has star quality, but comes 
across poorly at the grassroots level.  Chen did not believe 
he would do well in the South outside urban youth.  While 
Soong did well in the South five years ago in part because of 
his "star quality", it was also because many still identified 
with the KMT and identified him with the KMT.  In addition, 
Soong worked the grassroots well.  Ma had none of these 
advantages and would therefore not be able to repeat Soong's 
success in the South. 
 
Mayor Chen Sees Challenges in Next Year's Election 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
8.  (C) Chen acknowledged that he had an uphill battle in 
trying to establish himself well enough in Kaohsiung over the 
next year and a half before he had to run for election.  He 
felt confident, however, given that the Pan Green and Pan 
Blue split in Kaohsiung was fairly stable at 53 to 47 
percent.  Hsieh had suffered in his last election because of 
the farmer's and fisherman association reform, which had been 
badly handled by the Chen administration and came just before 
Hsieh's re-election.  On his deep-green flank, Chen noted, he 
had to pay attention to the pro-independence vote.  TSU LY 
Caucus Leader and Chairman for Kaohsiung, Lo Chih-ming had 
already indicated he might run against Chen. 
 
Comment -- A Rising Star to Watch 
--------------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) Chen is clearly tapped into the highest reaches of 
Taiwan policymaking, both directly through his official 
position (the Mayor of Kaohsiung has cabinet-level status) 
and close contacts with the President, and through his father 
who continues to play an important role behind the scenes. 
His views on cross-Strait issues, including the 
Anti-Seccession Law, are similar to what we have heard from 
others and likely reflect internal DPP debate over how Taiwan 
should react. 
 
10.  (C) While Chen claims to be a moderate, we have already 
seen him act contrary to his own views for political 
expediency; he insisted up until a day before the TSU's 
anti-Anti-Secession-Law rally in Kaohsiung on March 6 that he 
would not attend, only to reverse himself at the last minute 
and appear as a featured speaker.  While he was probably 
encouraged to do so by President Chen in order to lessen 
pressure on the DPP, the senior leadership of which opted 
out, he also probably assessed it was important for his own 
political future.  With most local Pan-Green officials, 
including the DPP caucus of the Kaohsiung City Council, 
joining the rally, Chen likely realized that the 11-12 
percent of Kaohsiung's voters supporting the TSU, would note 
his absence.  In local politics, unlike the LY, exhibiting 
strong Party discipline does not necessarily win you points. 
Without paying at least some lip-service to the deeper green 
forces in Kaohsiung, Chen Chi-Mai may worry about his 
election chances next year.  TSU's Lo Chih-Ming, in 
announcing early his interest in running for Mayor of 
Kaohsiung, already has highlighted Chen Chi-Mai's potential 
vulnerability with the deep green. 
 
11.  (C) Chen surprised us with his strong endorsement of 
Premier Hsieh, something we never heard from him during his 
years as an LY member.  We suspect he needs to appear close 
to Hsieh in order to ensure support from Hsieh's base in 
Kaohsiung as well as the many of Hsieh's aides still working 
in the Kaohsiung City Government.  It may also reflect the 
"party line" of the President's Justice Alliance Faction, 
which clearly sees Premier Hsieh as the President's best bet 
to build cross-party cooperation toward achieving President 
Chen's legislative agenda.  Finally, Chen Chi-Mai may just be 
hedging his bets, seeing that Hsieh is a rising force and a 
key contender for President.  While Chen Chi-Mai almost 
certainly remains a protege of President Chen, he may assess 
that his future also depends on his ability to establish 
credibility across factional lines. 
 
Bio Note on Chen Chi-Mai 
------------------------ 
 
12.  (SBU) Born February 23, 1965 in Keelung, Chen is the son 
of Chen Che-nan, former Deputy Secretary General of the 
Presidential Office and a key powerbroker on the Kaohsiung 
political scene.  Through his father and as a result of years 
of working closely with President Chen, Chen Chi-Mai enjoys 
direct access to the President and is a member of the Justice 
Faction of the DPP, let by President Chen.  In December 2002, 
Chen Chi-Mai played a decisive role in the resolving 
Kaohsiung City Council scandal when he successfully convinced 
President Chen to intervene and distance the DPP from its 
councilors that had been involved.  President Chen's early 
and direct intervention proved critical in minimizing the 
negative fallout of the scandal on the DPP. 
 
13.  (C) Seen as one of the rising stars in the DPP, Chen 
Chi-Mai maintains close relations with a range of 
similarly-aged DPP stars, including Luo Wen-chia, Chairman of 
the Hakka Affairs Council and a likely candidate this year 
for Taipei County Magistrate, Chiu Tai-san, Vice Chairman of 
the Mainland Affairs Council and a likely candidate for 
Taichung County Magistrate, and Cho Jung-tai, the cabinet 
spokesman. 
 
14.  (SBU) Chen is a medical doctor by training, with a M.S. 
in Public Health from National Taiwan University, and a BS in 
Medicine from Chung Shan Medical College.  He is married -- 
his wife is an OB-GYN on staff at Kaohsiung Veteran's 
hospital, and has two young children.  He speaks some English 
-- perhaps an FSI 2/2 level.  Chen participated in an AIT 
International Visitor program in 2001.  He is surprisingly 
quiet for a politician, almost shy, and takes a more 
intellectual approach to issues than most Taiwan politicians. 
 This may change, however, as he pushes himself to establish 
credibility among Southern Taiwan's traditional 
constituencies that are more accustomed to colorful and 
dynamic local politicians. 
 
FORDEN 
PAAL