US embassy cable - 05MANAMA375

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000375 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2015 
TAGS: KDEM, PGOV, BA 
SUBJECT: LEADING BOYCOTTER DISCUSSES PROSPECTS FOR 
PARTICIPATION IN 2006 
 
REF: A. MANAMA 228 
 
     B. MANAMA 174 
 
Classified By: DCM Susan L. Ziadeh for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C) Aziz Abul, Director of International Relations for 
the Quartet Alliance of boycotting societies and organizer of 
the February 10 conference on constitutional reform, told us 
that the boycotting societies want to be a part of the 
democratic process but they do not believe that the current 
system is a real democracy.  He warned that without a serious 
dialogue with the GOB, the Alliance will be more pro-active 
than ever in keeping people away from the polls.  End Summary. 
 
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Independent Sunni chosen to represent the Alliance 
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2.  (SBU) Aziz Abul, who served as the head of the 
preparatory committee for the February 10 conference on 
constitutional reform (Ref A), told PolOff February 26 that 
the four political societies that hosted the conference chose 
him as their point of contact for foreign governments and 
international organizations.  Abul is not affiliated with any 
of the political societies, known as the Quartet Alliance. 
While the vast majority of Alliance members are Shi'a, Abul 
is Sunni. 
 
3.  (C) Abul noted that Minister of Social Affairs Dr. Fatima 
Al Belooshi had both publicly and privately forbidden the 
Alliance from raising the constitutional reform issue with 
foreign governments or foreign organizations.  The press 
reported and Abul confirmed that the Baathist society in the 
Alliance, Al Tajomo' Al Qowmi, vowed to break apart from the 
Alliance if members appealed for help from the U.S. or UK. 
Abul made it clear that to avoid trouble with the GOB and Al 
Tajomo' Al Qowmi, he was representing himself and not the 
Alliance in his meeting with PolOff.  However, he indicated 
that he was expressing the Alliance's views.  He mentioned 
that the Alliance had unofficial communication with the 
International Crisis Group, the International Commission of 
Jurists, the Public International Law and Policy Group, and a 
French socialist organization. He added that a British lord 
offered to draft an analysis critical of the 2002 
constitution. 
 
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Frustration with the King's refusal to negotiate 
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4.  (C)  When asked if the Alliance was seeking a return to 
the 1973 constitution, amendments to the 2002 constitution, 
or a totally new constitution, Abul replied that all three 
options were viable.  He said the Alliance's starting point 
in any future negotiations with the GOB would be the National 
Action Charter, which he stated was based on the 1973 
constitution.  Strategically, he said, the Alliance could not 
begin with the 2002 constitution as this would imply that the 
societies accept it. 
 
5.  (C) Abul said he knew that the Alliance could not 
possibly get 100% of what it wanted, and noted that the 
boycotting societies would likely agree to participate in the 
elections if they see that the GOB has good intentions 
regarding constitutional reform.  He emphasized that the 
Alliance respects the King and does not want to harm his 
image, but promised that if the King refused to engage the 
boycotting societies they will be more active than ever and 
"out in the streets" convincing people not to vote.  He 
mentioned that Sheikh Issa Qassem and other influential 
religious leaders assured the Alliance that they would 
support a decision by the societies to boycott.  He added 
that the Alliance would be active in getting Sunnis as well 
as Shi'as to refrain from voting. 
 
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Issues other than constitution 
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6.  (C) Beyond the constitution, Abul said there were several 
other important issues that concerned the Alliance.  The most 
important was the demarcation of district lines in Bahrain, 
which he claimed guaranteed Shi'a under-representation in 
parliament and violated the principle of one man, one vote. 
He noted that the size of the average Shi'a-dominated 
electoral district is significantly larger than the size of 
the average Sunni-dominated district.  (Note: In a separate 
meeting, Al Wifaq board member Nizar Al Qari told PolOff that 
if the district lines were re-drawn in a fair way, at least 
half of Al Wifaq's members would participate in the 2006 
elections even without a dialogue on the constitution. End 
Note.)  In addition, he stressed the importance of changing 
the election law to give political societies more freedom. 
Alliance members also oppose the rule that required voters in 
2002 to have their passports stamped to show they voted. 
 
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Praise for the constitutional process in Iraq 
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7.  (C) Abul praised the USG's support for a fair 
constitutional process in Iraq.  He said he knows the United 
States is worried about Shi'a majority rule and Islamists 
taking power in Bahrain, but emphasized that Bahrainis are 
ready for democracy and should be able to exercise their 
rights. 
 
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Comment 
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8.  (C)  Abul's comments confirm that Alliance members want 
to be a part of the democratic process.  Since the breakdown 
of the constitutional dialogue in October 2004, the King has 
shown no interest in engaging in a debate about the 
constitution outside of established political institutions. 
There is still plenty of time to work out a face-saving 
solution, if the parties choose to go this route. 
 
9.  (U) Baghdad minimize considered. 
MONROE