US embassy cable - 05FRANKFURT2147

UNCLAS FRANKFURT 002147 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, GM 
SUBJECT: SPD Bucks Trend, Wins Local Races in Hesse 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for Internet distribution. 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Social Democratic Party (SPD) candidates 
have won a series of off-cycle election victories in 
formerly Christian Democratic (CDU) governed areas in Hesse 
-- most recently in Kassel (Hesse's third largest city) -- 
signaling a competitive battle for communal elections in 
early 2006.  Observers view the SPD's victory over an 11- 
year incumbent in Kassel as a sign of the CDU state 
government's difficulties communicating with local voters. 
The SPD is optimistic about its prospects in other mayoral 
races this year.  State-wide communal elections in early 
2006 will be an important test of Minister-President Roland 
Koch's popularity in the lead-up to national elections later 
next year.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) On February 27, SPD candidate Bertram Hilgen (former 
aide to Federal FinMin Hans Eichel) unseated long-time 
incumbent Lord Mayor Georg Lewandowski (CDU) in Kassel by a 
convincing margin of 54 to 46 percent.  This SPD victory  -- 
in the year's most important election in Hesse -- is also 
noteworthy because Kassel was one of the few major cities in 
Germany governed by a CDU-Green coalition.  In the run-off, 
Green voters overwhelmingly supported Hilgen (a critic of 
the CDU-Green coalition), prompting SPD and FDP (Free 
Democratic) politicians to declare the end of the "black- 
green era" in the city. 
 
3. (U) The SPD victory in Kassel follows a series of recent 
SPD victories in CDU-controlled cities, including Hanau 
(early 2004) and Marburg (late 2004).  The SPD has also won 
county races in CDU rural strongholds (most recently on 
March 6 outside Frankfurt).  The SPD now holds six of 12 
lord mayorships and two thirds of local mayoral positions; 
it also now controls the majority of Hesse's counties. 
 
4. (U) Political analysts at the University of Marburg told 
a consulate representative that CDU incumbents have lost 
recently due to (1) the party's disconnect with local 
issues, (2) successful voter-mobilization by SPD candidates, 
and (3) the CDU's absolute majority at the state level which 
makes it a "lightning-rod" for criticism.  Sources in the 
state CDU office opined that recent election defeats are a 
setback for state-wide communal elections next year and for 
M-P Koch's ambition to make the state CDU a hegemonic "Party 
of Hesse" along the lines of Bavaria's Christian Social 
Union (CSU).  The Hesse FDP (in opposition since 2003) 
portrays a CDU "disconnect with voters" that "starts at the 
top in Wiesbaden and runs down into small villages". 
 
5. (SBU) COMMENT: After his convincing victory in 2003 state 
elections, Minister-President Koch said the Hesse CDU would 
take the battle to the local level and transform the party 
into a dominating force like the CSU in Bavaria.  The SPD's 
local victories, while not overwhelming, are a setback for 
the CDU and show that SPD candidates are still able to 
mobilize voters on local issues despite the party's weakness 
at the state and national levels.  Communal elections in 
Hesse (due before April 2006) will be the most important 
test of Koch's popularity in advance of national elections 
later next year.  Recent losses mean that Koch will have to 
make up more ground in the coming months and may act as a 
temporary brake on national ambitions.  END COMMENT. 
 
BODDE