US embassy cable - 05MUMBAI756

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MUMBAI 000756 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, ECON, PHUM, IN, GOI 
SUBJECT: GUJARAT BJP PARLIAMENTARIANS OPENLY CHALLENGE CM MODI 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) Some of our contacts in Gujarat tell us that BJP Chief 
Minister (CM) Narendra Modi is facing the most serious challenge 
to his power yet, as a growing number of BJP Members of the 
Legislative Assembly (MLAs) are openly speaking out against him. 
 The MLAs are criticizing what they consider to be Modi's 
autocratic leadership style that strips the cabinet and 
legislative assembly of their respective powers and 
responsibilities.  A group comprising over half of the BJP MLAs 
in the state parliament has already aired its complaints with 
BJP national leader L.K. Advani, who admonished the group for 
airing its complaints so openly, but agreed to hear them out 
after the end of the Gujarat parliament's current session on 
March 17.  Our contacts confirm that Modi is becoming 
increasingly unpopular in Gujarat, where he is perceived to be 
arrogant and increasingly out of touch with political realities. 
 Some Gujaratis also criticize Modi for failing to repair the 
negative image that continues to linger over the state as a 
result of the 2002 riots.  Most, however, are not willing to 
write Modi off, as the central leadership will likely continue 
to back the Chief Minister if only because it has no viable 
alternative at the moment.  End Summary. 
 
Over Half of BJP Faction Speaks Out Openly Against Modi 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
2. (U) On March 9, about 65 out of the 127 elected members of 
Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Gujarat Parliament 
met at the home of former Chief Minister and long-time Modi 
rival Keshubhai Patel in the state capital Gandhinagar.  The 
gathering was intended to signal the party's central leadership 
that the state legislators would revolt unless CM Modi was 
removed from office.  Later that same day, Patel left for Delhi 
to argue his case in front of party chief L. K. Advani.  Patel 
reportedly promised his supporters, "This time, I am not going 
to return empty-handed." Former union textile minister Kanshiram 
Rana accompanied him. 
 
3. (U) On March 10, Advani publicly reprimanded Patel and Rana 
for airing party differences, telling a BJP parliamentary board 
meeting, "A fight within the family should remain inside the 
four walls.  It should not be taken to the media."  However, 
Advani indicated that he would hear the legislators' grievances 
after the Gujarat parliament session concludes on March 17. 
 
Protest Targets Modi's Leadership Style, Power Grab 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
4. (SBU) The legislators are protesting what they believe is 
Modi's heavy-handed and autocratic rule in Gujarat. 
Parliamentarians resent the centralization of power in the Chief 
Minister's Office (CMO), which they say increasingly denies the 
state parliament a meaningful role in the rule of the state. 
Even state ministers are reputed to feel powerless, as they 
believe that the CMO has usurped much of their authority.   Many 
MLAs complain that Modi uses intimidation and fear to keep tabs 
on his own party members.  In March, for example, rumors 
surfaced that the CMO was tapping the phones of BJP MLAs. 
 
Sources:  Opposition Far Larger Than Appears 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) According to BJP activist Tejas Patel (protect), the 
March 9 demonstration did not reflect the full scope of 
opposition to Modi.  Patel estimated that the revolt encompasses 
more than 90 of the BJP's 127 legislators.  Patel expected them 
to all come forward, once Advani starts polling legislators for 
their opinion.  Anoosh Malekar, an Ahmedabad-based journalist 
who writes for "The Week," told us that the uprising was the 
most serious challenge that Modi has faced as Chief Minister. 
Malekar said he spent the day of March 9 with the 60-odd MLAs 
that had met at Patel's house.  Malekar predicted that over 100 
BJP MLAs would like to see Modi go.  However, many were still 
sitting on the fence and would not openly speak out against Modi 
unless they saw that the political momentum was clearly moving 
towards Modi's removal.  The true extent of the opposition to 
Modi would become visible if BJP leader Advani were to signal 
that he was prepared to drop Modi. "His own faction may not like 
him (Modi)," Malekar said, "but this is India so ultimately the 
party high command will decide what happens to him." 
 
6. (SBU) Malekar said Modi's leadership style was becoming 
unbearable to those around him.  Modi reportedly humiliated and 
degraded those around him, including cabinet ministers.  Modi 
was distrustful of both ministers and parliamentarians, "because 
they could become a threat to him."  He had therefore 
concentrated power and decision making within the Chief 
Minister's Office and the state civil service.  Malekar 
predicted that corruption allegations against Modi, recently 
made by individual MLAs, were unlikely to bring down the CM. He 
contended that many MLAs formerly supported Modi, but now are 
opposed, as his concentration of power has robbed them of the 
ability to hand out patronage and enrich themselves. 
 
Advani's Continued Support for Modi 
----------------------------------- 
 
7. (SBU) Malekar predicted that Advani would probably continue 
to stand behind Modi, if only because the BJP had no alternative 
in Gujarat.  In his determination to solidify his power, Modi 
had destroyed the power base of his potential rivals.  The BJP 
leadership would not want to risk fresh elections, Malekar said, 
as the popular mood in Gujarat had turned against Modi, and the 
UPA could come to power.  Modi's leadership style and perceived 
arrogance had turned off the majority of voters.  In addition, 
voters continued to associate Modi with the 2002 riots and held 
him responsible for the negative image that those events 
continued to cast over the state.  Press reports of mobile phone 
protocols and statements by police officials, both of which 
implicate the state's BJP-leadership in the 2002 riots, have 
also harmed Modi.  The GOG's attempts to re-brand Gujarat as an 
excellent place to do business (septel) have yet to help improve 
the state's image, Malekar said. 
 
8. (SBU) Ahmedabad businessman and former BJP MLA Jai Narayan 
Vyas agreed that Modi's position was now the weakest that it had 
ever been.  Vyas also said that the BJP would lose new 
elections.  He predicted that Modi was becoming untenable for 
the BJP and would likely be removed from office within the next 
six months.  Modi's popularity had plummeted since the elections 
of 2002 that had confirmed his power, Vyas said.  The Chief 
Minister was now perceived to be self-centered, arrogant and 
isolating himself from political realities.  Vyas acknowledged 
that Advani continued to support Modi, but added that Advani's 
backing could disappear if the revolt in Gujarat became 
sufficiently widespread. 
 
9. (SBU) Both Malekar and Vyas agreed that finding an 
alternative to Modi would be the biggest challenge facing the 
BJP leadership.  Vyas said there was no viable candidate in 
Gujarat, since "nobody can emerge as long as a dictator is in 
power."   He criticized the Congress party for failing to 
present a viable alternative to Modi and the BJP.  Malekar 
agreed that Congress had yet to capitalize on Modi's growing 
unpopularity.  The party's leadership in Gujarat was weak and 
not focused. 
 
10.  (SBU) Well-connected journalist and former "India Today" 
editor Zafar Agha told Delhi Poloff on March 15 that Congress 
had determined the BJP government in Gujarat to be very weak and 
was encouraging the revolt in hopes of installing a UPA 
government there.  Although recent events in Jharkhand, Bihar, 
and Goa had put Congress on the defensive, he noted, a Congress 
victory in Gujarat would dent growing BJP momentum and put the 
party on notice that it had its own vulnerabilities.  Agha 
predicted that Advani would not risk his Hindutva support base 
by withdrawing support from Modi. 
 
Comment 
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11. (SBU) Although the 2002 Gujarat riots continue to stain 
Modi's image both within the state and elsewhere, the real 
challenge to his power has its roots in his authoritarian 
leadership style.  Criticism of Modi from within his own party 
is nothing new.  It has accompanied him since October 2001, when 
he became Gujarat chief minister for the first time.  Vyas's 
prediction that Modi would be out of power within 6 months is a 
minority opinion in Gujarat.  Despite the seriousness of the 
current uprising, most of our contacts in Gujarat were not 
willing to write off the Chief Minister just yet, if only 
because the BJP has no serious option at the moment.   Modi's 
leadership tactics have ensured that the party has no candidate 
from within its ranks that could succeed the unpopular chief 
minister, and the party is in no mood to support an outsider. 
The BJP also cannot risk new elections, as that could hand 
Gujarat to the UPA.  Thus a likely scenario is that Advani will 
continue to back Modi, but admonish him to change some of his 
tactics.  This could include a less arrogant leadership style 
and an evolution of power and patronage opportunities to Modi's 
cabinet and the BJP fraction within the parliament.  End comment. 
 
SIMMONS