US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI1090

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 001090 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CHINA'S ANTI-SECESSION LAW 
 
1. Summary: Major newspapers in Taiwan continue to 
scrutinize the progress and possible impact of China's 
anti-secession law. Taiwan newspapers played up 
comments made by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice 
that maintain that the law clearly raises cross-Strait 
tensions and several reported on possible moves the 
United States would take following the legislation of 
the law.  The centrist "China Times," in a Washington 
dispatch on page three, reported March 14 that 
Secretary of State Rice might urge Beijing to make a 
 
SIPDIS 
good-will gesture toward Taiwan when she visits China 
later this month. The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily," 
in a page-three story March 14, quoted sources close to 
President Chen Shui-bian as saying Taiwan is likely to 
adjust its cross-Strait policy in the wake of the 
legislation of the anti-secession law. 
 
2.  A news analysis in the pro-independence "Liberty 
Times" said Beijing's mention of using non-peaceful 
means to resolve the Taiwan issue will force the United 
States, Japan and European Union to seriously ponder 
the possibility of a war breaking out in the Taiwan 
Strait -- and, as a result of this contemplation, to 
seriously consider strengthening their county's 
cooperation with Taiwan.  A "Taiwan Daily" article by 
Washington correspondent James Wang urged Washington 
and Tokyo to review their obsolete "one China" policies 
and to look into the fact of Taiwan's democratization 
and China's hegemonic mindset.  The editorial of the 
limited-circulation, pro-independence "Taiwan News" 
also urged the Chen Shui-bian administration to seek 
more explicit support from the international community, 
especially from the United States and Japan, to protect 
Taiwan's hard-won democracy in the face of Beijing's 
militarism and unilateralism. 
 
3.  The centrist "China Times," on the other hand, 
suggested in its editorial that both the ruling and 
opposition parties in Taiwan recognize and treat the 
"Republic of China" as the greatest common denominator. 
By doing so, the editorial said, it will all the more 
highlight the flaw in legitimacy of Beijing's anti- 
secession law.  A "United Daily News" news analysis 
questioned the Chen Shui-bian administration's plan to 
hold a mass rally on March 26 because it is unsure 
whether such a move will lead to confrontation or 
reconciliation across the Taiwan Strait.  A limited- 
circulation, pro-unification, English-language "China 
Post" editorial said one can foresee strained relations 
across the Taiwan Strait as well as some uncertainty in 
Washington-Beijing ties in the aftermath of the passage 
of the anti-secession law.  End summary. 
 
A) "Taiwan Should Make More Prior Arrangements for 
Cross-Strait Situation" 
 
Washington correspondent Nadia Tsao wrote in the pro- 
independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 800,000] 
(3/13): 
 
". It is understood that the United States not only 
does not support the anti-secession law, but also 
lobbies Japan, New Zealand, Australia, and the European 
Union countries such as the United Kingdom to express 
their concerns [toward China].  It is clear for the 
international community that Taiwan at best can trigger 
a war once it declares independence, but it is China 
that is solely capable of waging a war [in the Taiwan 
Strait]. 
 
"Beijing's attempt to adopt anti-secession law, 
especially the non-peaceful measures to solve the 
Taiwan issue, will force the United States, Japan, and 
the European Union to seriously ponder on the 
possibility of a war breaking out across the Taiwan 
Strait.  They will also contemplate on the contingency 
plans and the possible damage a cross-Strait war may 
bring to the entire regional balance, and as a result, 
their cooperation with Taiwan would only be 
strengthened.  Former U.S. Secretary of State Collin 
Powell once said the way Beijing adopts to resolve the 
cross-Strait issue will influence how other countries 
view China's emergence.  China's insistence on pushing 
for the passage of the anti-secession law is in reality 
promoting the credibility of the China threat theory to 
the international community.  Other than making use of 
the current situation and putting hope in the United 
States and Japan, Taiwan should work harder on its 
relations with the Asian countries which still keep 
silent or even acquiesce to China's position." 
 
B) "The International Community Should Take Actions to 
Counter and to Balance China's Anti-secession Law" 
 
Washington correspondent James Wang wrote in the 
"Washington Review" column of the pro-independence 
"Taiwan Daily" [circulation: 150,000] (3/14): 
 
". No matter how China tries to explain or cover it up, 
the anti-secession law does not merely involve issues 
concerning Taiwan's interests, but also seriously 
provokes Washington's understanding of the 
normalization of U.S.-China relations, the United 
States' vital interests as well as its laws.  The anti- 
secession law has fundamentally challenged two major 
U.S. policies toward the Taiwan Strait: the facts that 
the United States has not acknowledged China or PRC's 
sovereignty over Taiwan, and that cross-Strait 
differences should be solved peacefully. . 
 
"The United States and Japan should re-evaluate the out- 
of-date `one China' policy, and review again the fact 
of Taiwan's democratization and the wills of the people 
in Taiwan.  They should also face China's hegemonic 
mentality and its attempt to ruin the more than 50 
years' status quo in East Asia.  The United States 
should also realize that its refusal to recognize 
Taiwan as a sovereign state for 26 years has only 
fostered China's ambition to ruin the status quo and to 
annex Taiwan.  The United States does not want to see 
Taiwan adopt drastic countermeasures, but and the most 
appropriate, most efficient and most timely fashioned 
way is to coordinate other democracies to establish 
normal diplomatic relations with Taiwan and to 
officially recognize Taiwan's current status as a 
sovereign state in the name of `Republic of China.'" 
 
C) "Use Democracy to Counter PRC `Law'" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" 
[circulation: 20,000] editorialized (3/14): 
 
".  We strongly encourage the Chen administration to 
accurately weigh international reactions and concerns 
and ensure that any response or countermeasures to the 
PRC law are adopted and designed to protect our 
democracy and are not being made merely for the sake of 
domestic consumption. 
 
"By adhering to the principles of democracy and peace, 
Taiwan can contrast its principled response with 
Beijing's unilateral and callous and anti-democratic 
maneuver.  Besides correcting our long-distorted image 
as a `trouble maker' in cross-strait relations, a 
pragmatic response will show the world that it is 
Beijing that is actually rocking the boat or `pushing 
the envelope' in the Taiwan Strait. . 
 
"Since the `anti-secession law' poses a `clear and 
present' danger and threat not only to the people of 
Taiwan but also to regional peace and stability, the 
DPP government should also ask for more explicit 
support from the international community, especially 
the U.S. and Japan, to protect our hard-won democracy 
in the face of Beijing's militarism and unilateralism. 
 
"Incorporation of Taiwan into the U.S.-Japan security 
dialogue and the passage of proactive legislation to 
safeguard Taiwan's security in the face of this 
qualitatively new threat are steps that should be 
fostered. ..." 
 
D) "To Love the Republic of China is Practically the 
Only Way to Love Taiwan" 
 
The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" 
[circulation: 600,000] editorialized (3/12): 
 
". [W]hen it comes to [the issue that] the Republic of 
China (ROC) is not tantamount to Taiwan independence, 
it is in fact a position that we have advocated for 
many years.  As for anti-separation, needless [for 
Beijing] to day, we have always been opposed to the 
splittism movements pushing for Taiwan independence. 
For the part of the ROC, the idea to establish another 
independent country [other than the ROC] is more than a 
betrayal for the ROC; moreover, it has never become a 
mainstream public view in Taiwan's politically diverse 
society.  Besides, in terms of political reality, the 
pursuit of Taiwan independence and building a new 
country will only evoke irrational use of force from 
Beijing and lead Taiwan to an immediate disaster.  This 
is certainly not an action that a responsible 
government should do.  . 
 
"[When we examine] the current political reality, the 
ROC in Taiwan and the PRC on the mainland, despite the 
fact that they are not equal with regard to territory, 
population, or national strength, are separate 
political entities whose powers of governing do not 
cover each other. .  Thus, as long as Taiwan 
acknowledges the ROC and treats it as the greatest 
common denominator for both the ruling and opposition 
parties, Beijing's insistence on enacting the anti- 
secession law would only highlight its major flaws of 
legitimacy and necessity [to do so].  To protect and 
safeguard Taiwan, [we must] protect and safeguard the 
ROC.  [We need to] get rid of the impractical and 
dangerous illusion of seeking Taiwan independence 
because to love the ROC is exactly the only way to love 
Taiwan." 
 
E) "[Taiwan] Government Upgrading Reaction; Is It a 
Move toward Confrontation or Reconciliation?" 
 
Journalist Sean Liu observed in the conservative, pro- 
unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 600,000] 
(3/13): 
 
". Over the past few years, the Taiwan government, in 
consideration of its domestic political situation and 
elections, insisted on promoting issues such as the 
`one country on each side of the Taiwan Strait' 
doctrine, referendum, writing of a new constitution and 
rectification of Taiwan's name - all of which have 
resulted in a severe damage to the mutual trust 
foundation between Taiwan and the United States. 
Recently, because of President Chen's adjustments in 
his behaviors, no evident conflict has occurred between 
the two.  But still, the U.S. government has doubts 
about the possible direction the Chen Shui-bian 
administration might take with regard to cross-Strait 
issues, and it continued to `listen to [Chen's] words 
and watch his behaviors. .' 
 
"China's promotion of the `non-peaceful' anti-secession 
law has offered Taiwan, originally badly defeated in 
the triangular relationship between Washington, Beijing 
and Taipei, an opportunity to catch up.  But the 
question of whether President Chen will be able to 
resist temptations of domestic political gains and 
prevent himself from falling into the same trap will 
determine whether Taiwan will be able to secure a 
victory in this round of game and keep its results from 
the battlefield. ." 
 
F) "On Collision Course" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language 
"China Post" [circulation: 30,000] noted in an 
editorial (3/12): 
 
". In the aftermath of the [anti-secession] law's 
passage, one can foresee strained relations across the 
Taiwan Strait as well as some uncertainly in Sino-U.S. 
ties.  President Bush and his hawkish secretary of 
state Condoleezza Rice many not remain silent if they 
see the law as a unilateral decision to change the 
status quo.  Rice will visit Beijing later this month 
to express U.S. concerns about the law. 
 
"Taiwan's reaction is more measured, a far cry from the 
usually angry outbursts during the past.  President 
Chen Shui-bian said on Thursday that he was grateful 
for the deep concerns expressed by the United States 
about Beijing's anti-secession law.  The president also 
correctly pointed out that the biggest obstacle lying 
across the Taiwan Strait is not political division, but 
the gap of political systems.  Only when this gap 
narrows down, he said, can the two sides come closer. 
 
"Is there a silver lining to the dark cloud?  Not in 
the foreseeable future.  Hu Jintao's olive branch 
extended to Chen Shui-bian last week call for the 
recognition of the `1992 consensus' on one China. 
That's the pre-condition for a cross-strait dialogue 
and rapprochement.  Chen can't afford to yield on that 
point, which is seen as a `betrayal of Taiwan' by his 
comrades.  Beijing, on the other hand, is equally 
inflexible on the consensus reached 13 years ago in 
Hong Kong regarding the definition of one China. 
Without a breakthrough on that stalemate, there's no 
prospect for a thaw in relations, at least during 
Chen's presidency." 
 
PAAL