US embassy cable - 05QUITO585

UNCLAS QUITO 000585 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KJUS, PREL, EC 
SUBJECT: COURT SAGA CONTINUES, PROSPECTS IMPROVE 
 
REF: QUITO 534 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  There are signs that the three-month 
crisis over the packing of the Supreme Court is nearing 
resolution.  On March 8, President Gutierrez submitted a 
simplified referendum proposal to Congress.  The opposition 
had favored a law to immediately terminate the current 
Supreme Court.  Despite several attempts, neither the 
government nor the opposition mustered the 51 votes needed to 
act.  The stalemate finally led to dialogue and on March 10 
an anonymous compromise proposal circulated combining the two 
alternatives.  With the possibility of a compromise crossing 
the aisles in Congress, the PRIAN still resisting change of 
the Court, compromise could cost the government its defensive 
alliance.  End Summary. 
 
Dueling Approaches; President's New Referendum 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) The president's current referendum has been reduced 
from ten to just one question, and proposes to shrink and 
replace the Supreme Court with another selected by an 
electoral college consisting of 13 civil society 
institutions.  The PRIAN has objected to the use of an 
electoral college and called instead for the controversial 
Supreme Court president to resign to restore the court's 
legitimacy.  Opposition members have criticized the lack of 
an immediate cessation of the current court, portraying the 
referendum as a trap designed to string out the current 
court's term indefinitely.  Civil society groups have told us 
they would support the president's proposal if it were 
modified with a near-term date the current court would cease 
to function.  Court workers declared an indefinite strike on 
March 14, effectively shuttering the entire justice system, 
while calling for the Supreme Court to be replaced. 
 
3.  (SBU) Presidential legal advisors have thus far refused 
to modify the president's new proposal, citing judicial 
uncertainty should the current court be terminated prior to 
the naming of a new one.  Within the government's 
congressional alliance, opinions are still mixed.  PRE 
congressional leader Mario Touma has expressed openness to 
dialogue and compromise to change the court.  The PRIAN, 
however, had publicly opposed any change in the court by 
means of an indirect electoral college. 
 
New Compromise Proposal 
----------------------- 
 
4.  (U) On March 10, a new, unsigned proposal began 
circulating.  It combined the termination of the current 
court, declared a judicial vacancy, and qualified the 
President's referendum proposal as a matter of national 
urgency.  The proposal reportedly had the backing of the main 
opposition parties (PSC, ID and Pachakutik), and members of 
the president's PSP and independents. 
 
UN Rapporteur Visit Could Help 
------------------------------ 
 
5.  (SBU) After initially denying a request for an earlier 
visit, MFA Multilateral Affairs U/S Jose Piedrahita claimed 
the GOE was looking forward to the visit to Ecuador by UN 
Judicial Rapporteur Leandro Despouy.  He expressed hope that 
Despouy's visit might spur dialogue between opposing factions 
in Congress on the court issue.  Despouy arrived on March 13 
to begin a round of talks and will leave on March 17. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.  (SBU) Our efforts to promote dialogue and compromise to 
government, civil society and opposition leaders appear to be 
paying off.   Perhaps taking the Ambassador's March 7 advice 
to heart (RefTel), President Gutierrez has noticeably lowered 
the level of his anti-opposition rhetoric.  Prospects for 
dialogue have certainly improved as a result.  Much will 
depend on the willingness of the government's allies, 
especially the PRIAN, to release the current court.  We 
understand the government's reluctance to accept a transition 
period with no top court.  But with the justice workers now 
on strike, we have effectively entered a judicial vacuum. 
There is clearly some way to go yet, but prospects for a 
workable compromise are improving. 
KENNEY