US embassy cable - 05CARACAS750

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000750 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2014 
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, VE 
SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN MILITARY:  SEEKING PLOTTERS BEHIND 
EVERY BUSH 
 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR 1.4 (D) 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C)  Summary:  The Venezuelan Government and supporters 
of President Hugo Chavez continue to prepare for a suspected 
US coup attempt and invasion.  Although the Venezuelan Navy 
chief played down the late February visit of a US Navy vessel 
at Curacao, Chavez and other GOV officials called it a 
provocation.  According to DAO sources, about 50 civilians 
rallied at a Maracay airbase March 1 to support the GOV 
during a minor agitation of anti-Chavez soldiers that the 
left-wing press described as a military insurrection.  The 
new Venezuelan military doctrine is poised to call for 
greater civilian involvement in national defense, and 
reserves may be growing in number and activity, according to 
Embassy contacts and press reports.  Separately, the 
retirement of armed forces joint command chief Maj. Gen. 
Julio Quintero Viloria sparked a series of shifts of senior 
military personnel, a continuation of the promotion of Chavez 
loyalists.  End summary. 
 
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Rumors of US Invasion 
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2.  (U)  The February 27 visit of the amphibious assault ship 
USS Saipan to Curacao--about 40 nautical miles from the 
Venezuelan coast--sparked rumors that the US was threatening 
Venezuela.  Vice Admiral Armando Laguna, the commander of the 
Venezuelan Navy, cautioned the following day that what the 
pro-GOV press billed as the mobilization of "combat aircraft, 
amphibious ships, and 1,000 marines" was a routine operation. 
 He reported that Venezuela had increased air and maritime 
surveillance to confirm US intentions.  On 2 March, President 
Hugo Chavez (visiting Uruguay) called the ship a 
"provocation," and over the following weekend he reiterated 
charges that the United States was trying to assassinate him. 
 National Assembly president Nicolas Maduro led a government 
and press delegation to Curacao after the Saipan's departure, 
where he characterized the ship's arrival as a veiled threat 
at the Venezuelan people.  For his part, Army chief Gen. Raul 
Baduel also took the opportunity to affirm that the USG could 
resort to killing the President. 
 
3.  (U)  A group claiming to be institutionalist, active-duty 
military personnel circulated an email bashing Chavez and 
praising the US Government and military.  The three page 
letter signed "Comando Operacional Conjunto 507" listed 
historical US military interventions in the name of freedom 
and reminded readers that the United States intervened to try 
to prevent Great Britain from seizing parts of eastern 
Venezuela (now Guyana) in the 19th century.  It closed by 
describing Chavez as a buffoon who spends Venezuela's riches 
on countries willing to give him the audience he lacked at 
home. 
 
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"People in Arms" 
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4.  (U)  A pro-GOV press report described a "spontaneous" 
gathering of some 3,000 civilians and cars bearing the slogan 
"people in arms" at El Libertador airbase in Maracay the 
night of March 1 to help the military combat an insurrection 
rumored to be in process.  GOV civilian and military 
officials also made public statements attesting to a 
disturbance of anti-Chavez soldiers.  According to DAO 
sources, only 50-100 civilians--mainly Tupamaros and 
Bolivarian Circle members--showed in response to military 
reports of a minor agitation of anti-Chavez soldiers, and a 
journalist was detained to ensure the publication of the more 
alarmist version of events.  According to the opposition 
press version, Maracay mayor Humberto Prieto, brother of 
former Defense Minister Jose Luis Prieto Silva, rallied the 
people, warning that the USS Saipan's presence made the 
threat of an uprising more credible.  The activists arrived 
to witness the mobilization of tanks of the 42nd armored 
brigade.  The armed forces inspector general, Vice Adm. 
Orlando Maniglia, later told reporters the tanks were 
participating in a routine maneuver. 
 
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Military Reserves 
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5.  (U)  Venezuela's new military doctrine--scheduled to be 
released this summer--will prescribe the use of "reserves" to 
augment national security, as promised in 2003-04.  Chavista 
rhetoric is ambiguous about whether these reserves will be 
military or civilian; Chavez has attended several ceremonies 
that highlight military reservists, but some ultra-leftists 
have called for a broader arming of Chavista supporters.  One 
of the chief theorists of the new doctrine is Vice Minister 
of Foreign Affairs Lt. Col. (retired) William Izarra.  In 
late January, the GOV news agency published an article by 
Izarra outlining the structure of "popular commands" made up 
of "basic action units" in charge of community defense, 
supplies, communications, and intelligence collection. 
During a February meeting with government officials at the 
armed forces headquarters, Chavez urged supporters to call up 
retirees and ex-guerrillas, according to a press transcript 
of his remarks.  He expressed hope that mayors could offer 
garrison commanders lists of local "reservists" with 
sharpshooting, sniper, and grenade-throwing skills. 
 
6.  (C)  Such reserves appear to be increasing in number and 
activity.  A private but government-influenced military news 
website has reported the activation of a new naval reserve 
battalion under the Venezuelan Marine Corps.  A security 
chief for a US-based company told poloff that he had noticed 
personnel in civilian attire drilling at the military base in 
Valencia over the past six months.  Representatives of the 
business organizatioon Conindustria told the Ambassador that 
their members were under pressure to permit recruiting and 
training at the worksite. 
 
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Command Shuffle 
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7.  (U)  The GOV kept staunch loyalists in key positions 
after the announced retirement on March 4 of Armed Forces 
Joint Command chief Maj. Gen. Julio Quintero Viloria touched 
off a shift of senior officers.  (The press cited 
"unconfirmed" reports that Chavez forced Quintero to retire 
because he had ordered the Maracay tank maneuvers without 
authorization.)  Chavez shifted most of the officers 
laterally.  Army inspector general (second-in-command) Maj. 
Gen. Ali Uzcategui Duque, who helped mount the operation that 
returned Chavez to power from his refuge at La Orchila Island 
in April 2002, replaced Quintero.  Maj. Gen. Wilfredo Silva, 
head of the first infantry division, replaced Uzcategui, and 
the Casa Militar chief, Maj. Gen. Virgilio Lameda Hernandez, 
filled Silva's position.  Lameda Hernandez's deputy, Col. 
Carlos Alcala Cordones, took command at Casa Militar. 
 
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Comment 
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8.  (C)  The top Venezuelan military leaders are maneuvering 
to convince the public and the international community that 
Chavez's invasion and assassination predictions are credible. 
 The Venezuelan military is also operating on the assumption 
that the threat is real.  Chavez will continue to reinforce 
the high command with proven loyalists, while the focus on 
establishing a new doctrine to guide Venezuela's military 
will remain largely theoretical for the time being. 
Nonetheless, the GOV appears poised to recruit civilians to 
help defend the revolution, and its contract with Russia to 
purchase 100,000 AK-47 rifles for fewer than 80,000 active 
duty personnel could help arm them.  Chavez's accusations 
against the USG are tactical and short-term; his efforts to 
create an armed, loyalist reserve force are strategic and 
long-term. 
Brownfield