US embassy cable - 05DUBLIN315

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000315 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O.  12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL 
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT PARTIES SUFFER MIDTERM REBUFF IN BY 
ELECTIONS TO FILL MCCREEVY AND BRUTON SEATS 
 
1.Summary.  The results of the Kildare North and Meath by- 
elections held on March 11 saw the Government parties 
suffering a more comprehensive mid-term rebuke than 
anticipated, winning neither seat and getting fewer votes 
in these districts than in 2002.  While no government 
party has won a by-election since 1982, PM Ahern's Fianna 
Fail party had shown gains nationally in a February poll 
and expected a better result in these elections. Analysts 
are citing as causes voter dissatisfaction with the state 
of roads, schools and hospitals, and uninspired 
campaigning by local members of Fianna Fail, who are said 
to remain angry that PM Ahern had 'forced' Charlie 
McCreevy to vacate his seat to become Ireland's EU 
commissioner. Opposition parties Fine Gael and Labour are 
likely to see the results as a sign that the government 
could be vulnerable in 2007 national elections. Sinn Fein 
took more than 12 per cent of the vote in Meath, despite 
the pressure the party has been under recently in 
connection with IRA criminality and the murder of Robert 
McCartney.  End summary. 
 
 
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Filling John Bruton's and Charlie McCreevy's Shoes 
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2.  The seat in the Meath constituency was vacated by 
John Bruton (Fine Gael), following his appointment as EU 
Ambassador to the United States.  In Kildare North, 
candidates vied for the seat formerly held by Charlie 
McCreevy (Fianna Fail) who is now European Commissioner 
for the Internal Market.  In an extremely low turnout 
(38.2 per cent in Kildare North, 40.6 per cent in Meath), 
the government parties won fewer votes than in the 2002 
general election.  Shane McEntee won the seat previously 
held by his Fine Gael party colleague John Bruton. 
Independent candidate, Catherine Murphy, took the Kildare 
North seat vacated by Charlie McCreevy.  Major issues in 
the by-elections included transport problems and 
commuting (both constituencies are populated by large 
numbers of commuters who work in Dublin), childcare and 
the health service. Seven candidates ran in each 
constituency. 
 
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Government Parties Punished for Poor Infrastructure 
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3. Traditionally, by-elections have little in common with 
general elections and are used to punish the government 
of the day for perceived inadequacies and failures. 
Although no Government party has won a by-election since 
1982, Fianna Fail, in particular, was disappointed with 
the unexpected double by-election defeat.  In Meath the 
party's vote dropped from 44.9 per cent in 2002 to 32.4 
per cent.  Similarly in Kildare North, first preference 
votes fell from 43.2 per cent to 24.5 per cent.  In a 
radio interview, Prime Minister Bertie Ahern attributed 
the drop in Kildare partly to uninspired campaigning by 
the local party machinery (which reportedly had opposed 
Ahern's move to transfer McCreevy to Brussels).  The 
Progressive Democrats, the junior government party, saw 
their vote drop by a third in Meath, from 11.9 per cent 
to 7.9 per cent, and secured only 5.4 per cent of the 
vote in Kildare North. 
 
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Opposition Sets its Sights on 2007 General Election 
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4.  The outcome for those parties offering to form an 
alternative government was encouraging.  The voting pact 
arrangement between Fine Gael and the Labour Party, where 
supporters of each party are encouraged to give their 
second preference to the other party, worked well, and 
Fine Gael will be delighted by the poll-topping 
performance of Shane McEntee in Meath.  The party also 
performed solidly in Kildare North and was the only party 
to increase its percentage of the vote in both 
constituencies.  Labour saw a slight drop in support in 
Kildare North where Independent candidate and former 
Labour Party councillor, Catherine Murphy, took the seat. 
Labour's vote in Meath rose from 4.3 per cent in 2002 to 
11.2 per cent, giving the party a strong base to work 
from for the next general election. 
 
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Sinn Fein Holds Its Own 
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5.  Sinn Fin's Joe Reilly took 12.2 per cent of the vote 
in Meath (up from 9.4 per cent in 2002), despite the 
pressure the party has been under recently in connection 
with IRA criminality and the murder of Robert McCartney. 
Notwithstanding the low turnout, Councillor Reilly 
attracted 6,087 first preference votes, compared to 6,042 
votes in 2002 when the turnout was almost 60 per cent. 
The vote indicates that Sinn Fein will remain a political 
force despite its perceived association with criminal 
activity.  In the next general election, however, the 
current five-seat Meath constituency will be divided into 
two three-seaters, Meath east and Meath west.  This 
geographical shake up will probably work against Sinn 
Fein's electoral prospects.  Sinn Fein's Chief 
Negotiator, Martin McGuinness had described the Meath by- 
election as 'probably the most critical election we have 
fought in 20 years' and described the party's vote as 'an 
incredible performance' and would be used as a 
'springboard' for the UK elections in May.    Sinn Fein 
did not have a candidate in the Kildare North 
constituency. 
 
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Comment 
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6.  The outcome in the two constituencies has dented the 
conventional political wisdom that the current Fianna 
Fail/Progressive Democrats government is coasting toward 
a third general election victory in a row. Despite their 
good showing, however, the main opposition parties have 
considerable ground to make up before they can offer a 
convincing alternative to put before the electorate in 
two years' time. 
 
 
KENNY