US embassy cable - 05PARIS1684

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001684 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY (FRANK); BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; 
AF/PA; EUR/WE (DEBORAH MENNUTI)/P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA 
(BERBENA); INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE 
HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA 
(ANN LUZZATO); USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA; 
BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - SYRIA - MIDDLE EAST 
DEMOCRATIZATION IRAN 
PARIS - MONDAY, MARCH 14, 2005 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
1. SYRIA - MIDDLE EAST DEMOCRATIZATION 
2. IRAN 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
SYRIA'S DECISION TO WITHDRAW FROM LEBANON AND WASHINGTON'S 
SUPPORT TO THE EU-3 INITIATIVE WITH IRAN ARE TWO OF TODAY'S 
MAJOR INTERNATIONAL STORIES, WITH COMMENTATORS WIDENING THEIR 
SCOPE TO ANALYZE THE REALITY OF AN "ARAB SPRINGTIME." WHILE 
LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION ASKED ON SATURDAY'S FRONT PAGE:  "AN 
ARAB SPRINGTIME?" EDITORIALIST MICHEL SCHIFRES ASSERTS THE 
PRESENCE OF "AN ARAB SPRINGTIME" IN LE FIGARO. BUT HE WARNS 
THAT "ISLAMISTS MAY ALSO BENEFIT FROM THE DEMOCRATIZATION 
PROCESS UNDERWAY." IN LE JOURNAL DU DIMANCHE GILLES DELAFON 
ALSO WONDERS WHETHER "BUSH IS THE SAVIOR OF THE ARABS," IN A 
COLUMN THAT NEVERTHELESS CONCLUDES THAT "THE WAR IN IRAQ, 
REMAINS A POLITICAL AND MILITARY FIASCO." "STILL," SAYS 
DELAFON, "THE PRAGMATISM WHICH DOMINATED PRESIDENT BUSH'S TRIP 
TO EUROPE CAN ALSO BE DETECTED IN WASHINGTON'S DECISION TO 
SUPPORT THE EUROPEAN INITIATIVE WITH IRAN." FOR PIERRE 
ROUSSELIN IN SATURDAY'S LE FIGARO, IN DEMONSTRATING SUPPORT 
FOR THE EU-3, "PRESIDENT BUSH IS HONORING HIS PROMISE MADE 
WHILE HE TOURED EUROPE." FOR RADIO COMMENTATOR BERNARD GUETTA, 
"BUSH IS DEFINITELY BECOMING MORE EUROPEAN." (SEE PART C) 
 
THE EUROPEAN CONSTITUTION AND THE MAY 29 REFERENDUM ELICIT 
MANY COMMENTARIES ON THE FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION. AS PART 
OF A SERIES ON "WHAT EUROPE DO WE WANT?" LE FIGARO INTERVIEWS 
FRANCIS FUKUYAMA: "WITH ITS EXPANSION TO THE EAST, EUROPE HAS 
PROVEN ITS ABILITY TO MANIPULATE SOFT POWER EXPANSION. BUT AS 
BOB KAGAN SAYS, EUROPE WILL ALSO NEED AT TIMES TO EXERCISE ITS 
HARD POWER. IN THE PAST TWO YEARS, THERE HAS BEEN A 
CONFRONTATION BETWEEN TWO ERRONEOUS THESES: EUROPE'S BELIEF 
THAT THE SOLE SOURCE OF INTERNATIONAL LEGITIMACY LIES WITH THE 
UN. AND AMERICA'S BELIEF THAT IT WAS DOING WHAT WAS BEST FOR 
THE COMMON GOOD AND THAT THE WORLD WOULD FINALLY RECOGNIZE 
THIS. I THINK THAT MOST AMERICANS WANT A EUROPEAN UNION THAT 
RESEMBLES THE U.S.: A FEDERATION OF STATES THAT CAN PLAY ITS 
ROLE ON THE WORLD SCENE. PRESIDENT BUSH'S SECOND TERM PROVES 
CLEARLY THAT THE AMERICANS SUPPORT EUROPE. AND IF THE 
AMERICANS ARE PUSHING FOR TURKEY'S EU MEMBERSHIP, IT IS NOT TO 
WEAKEN EUROPE BUT TO STRENGTHEN TURKEY. TURKEY IS AN ESSENTIAL 
ELEMENT TO COUNTER THE TERRORIST THREAT AND THE CULTURAL 
DIVISIONS THAT FOLLOWED 9/11. IN ORDER TO DEFUSE THE DYNAMIC 
OF THE WORST, WE MUST INVENT IN MUSLIM NATIONS AN EQUIVALENT 
TO CHRISTIAN DEMOCRACY." 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
SYRIA - MIDDLE EAST DEMOCRATIZATION 
 
"AN ARAB SPRINGTIME" 
PIERRE ROUSSELIN IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (03/14): 
"SYRIA'S DECISION TO PULLOUT FROM LEBANON MUST BE APPLAUDED. 
IT MARKS THE SUCCESS OF INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE ON SYRIA AND 
EMPHASIZES THE ROLE PLAYED BY THE LEBANESE PEOPLE. SYRIA'S 
PULLOUT WILL NOT RESOLVE EVERYTHING, IF ONLY BECAUSE BACHAR EL- 
ASSAD HAS NOT GIVEN UP ON CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE LEBANON'S 
POLITICAL PROCESS. SIMILARLY, THE AMERICANS WILL NOT BE DONE 
WITH HIM. THEY SUSPECT HE FACILITATES BORDER CROSSING INTO 
IRAQ FOR ARMED MEN WHOSE PURPOSE IS TO FIGHT AGAINST THE 
COALITION. WHETHER THIS IS A COINCIDENCE OR A CONSEQUENCE, 
SYRIA'S DECISION IS COMING ON THE HEELS OF A WAR IN IRAQ AND 
THE TOPPLING OF SADDAM HUSSEIN. SO MUCH SO THAT WASHINGTON IS 
PREDICTING AN `ARAB SPRINGTIME.' AS A CONSEQUENCE OF ITS 
STRATEGY AND THE CONFIRMATION THAT THE VIRUS OF DEMOCRACY HAS 
SPREAD, ALL OF WHICH MARKS THE BEGINNING OF BUSH'S GREATER 
MIDDLE EAST. IT WOULD BE VISCERALLY ANTI-AMERICAN NOT TO SEE 
THE ROLE PLAYED BY WASHINGTON IN THIS PROGRESS. ALL THE 
SIGNALS ARE ENCOURAGING, INCLUDING WASHINGTON'S LARGER ROLE IN 
THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT. BUT NOTHING PROVES THAT THE 
DEMOCRATS WILL COME OUT WINNING. THEY ARE NOT THE ONLY ONES 
THAT CAN BENEFIT FROM THESE CHANGES. SO CAN THE ISLAMISTS. THE 
WORST WOULD BE IF THIS DEMOCRATIC IMPROVEMENT LED TO THE 
SUCCESS OF FUNDAMENTALISM." 
 
"BURGEONING" 
PATRICK SABATIER IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (03/12): "FOR 
TOO LONG WESTERN POWERS, WITH FRANCE IN THE LEAD, HAVE GIVEN 
THEIR SUPPORT TO THE STATUS QUO IN THE ARAB WORLD. BEN LADEN 
HAS OPENED THE EYES OF THE WORLD TO THE PERILS OF POLITICAL 
IMMOBILITY AND THE CORRUPTION WHICH SPUR ISLAMIC TERRORISM. 
THIS IS WHY WE MUST REJOICE IN THE MOVEMENT THAT IS TAKING 
PLACE, FROM IRAQ TO EGYPT, LEBANON, SAUDI ARABIA AND PALESTINE 
AND WHICH PRESIDENT BUSH SALUTES AS A `WIND OF FREEDOM.' IT IS 
TOTALLY DIFFERENT TO SAY THAT THIS ANNOUNCES AN `ARAB 
SPRINGTIME.' THE DOMINO THEORY WOULD BE DANGEROUS IF IT WERE 
USED IN REVERSE TO LEGITIMIZE THE WAR IN IRAQ. NOTHING 
GUARANTEES THAT DEMOCRACY WILL SOON FLOURISH IN THE ARAB 
WORLD. IT CAN JUST AS WELL GIVE SOME BITTER FRUIT. IN THE 
MIDDLE EAST IT OPENS THE DOOR TO CERTAIN SHIITE MINORITIES, 
AND TO THE PROPONENTS OF AN ISLAMIZATION OF SOCIETY. THIS 
MEANS THAT DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENTS MAY NOT DO ANY BETTER IN 
TERMS OF LIBERTIES AND DEVELOPMENT. AN ELECTION DOES NOT MAKE 
A DEMOCRACY." 
 
"BUSH, SAVIOR OF THE ARABS?" 
GILLES DELAFON IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE JOURNAL DU DIMANCHE 
(03/13): "SOME KEEP SAYING `BUSH WAS RIGHT.' THE WIND OF 
DEMOCRACY IS BLOWING IN THE MIDDLE EAST. WHILE WASHINGTON CAN 
LEGITIMATELY CONSIDER ITSELF RESPONSIBLE FOR STIRRING UP A 
HORNETS' NEST, IT WOULD BE PRESUMPTUOUS AND CERTAINLY 
PREMATURE TO CONSIDER ITSELF THE SOLE FATHER OF THE MOVEMENT. 
IF ONE LOOKS CLOSELY AT THE CHANGES IN THE REGION, THE 
PROGRESS OWES MORE TO THE ARAB POPULATION THAN TO THEIR 
AMERICAN BENEFACTOR. IN ORDER TO GIVE SUPPORT TO THIS 
POLITICAL PROGRESS, WE MUST BE CAREFUL NOT TO MANIPULATE IT. 
THE PROCESS WILL BE A LONG ONE: IRAQ IS STILL A POLITICAL AND 
MILITARY FIASCO, AND IN LEBANON, HEZBOLLAH'S ROLE GIVES AN 
INDICATION OF WHAT MUST STILL BE OVERCOME. NEVERTHELESS, 
PRESIDENT BUSH CAME TO EUROPE LAST MONTH WITH A MORE PRAGMATIC 
APPROACH. THIS SAME PRAGMATISM HAS DICTATED WASHINGTON'S 
SUPPORT TO EUROPE'S INITIATIVE WITH IRAN." 
 
IRAN 
 
"THE EUROPEANS AND THE IRANIAN CHALLENGE" 
PIERRE ROUSSELIN IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (03/12): 
"PRESIDENT BUSH HAS HONORED THE PROMISE HE MADE TO THE 
EUROPEANS DURING HIS RECENT TRIP. THE U.S. IS GOING TO SUPPORT 
EUROPE'S INITIATIVE WITH TEHERAN. THIS TRANSATLANTIC 
COMPROMISE WAS NECESSARY. WHILE IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO BRING 
ABOUT IRAN'S REGIME, IT DOES GIVE A CHANCE TO DIPLOMACY AND NO 
ONE WILL BE ABLE TO SAY THAT PRESIDENT BUSH BELIEVES ONLY IN 
THE USE OF FORCE. THE WEST IS WORKING HAND IN HAND. AND 
TEHERAN IS SENSITIVE TO INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE. WHILE 
WASHINGTON'S NEW ATTITUDE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO MAKE IRAN 
CHANGE ITS POSITION, IT WILL KEEP THE NEGOTIATIONS GOING. THE 
THREE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES HAVE A MAJOR ROLE TO PLAY, VIS-A-VIS 
WASHINGTON AND IRAN: CONVINCING BOTH PARTIES THAT A NEGOTIATED 
OUTCOME IS BEST FOR ALL. THE U.S. IS TOO HEAVILY COMMITTED IN 
IRAQ TO OFFER A CREDIBLE MILITARY OPTION CONCERNING IRAN. THIS 
EXPLAINS THE AMERICANS' NEW ATTITUDE. THE NEGOTIATIONS WILL BE 
LONG AND DIFFICULT. BUT CONSIDERING THE IRANIAN REGIME'S KEY 
ROLE IN THE REGION, FROM LEBANON TO AFGHANISTAN, AN OUTCOME 
CAN BE GUARANTEED ONLY IF IRAN IS REINSERTED IN THE REGIONAL 
POLITICAL ARENA." LEACH #