US embassy cable - 05PARIS1680

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001680 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL AND INR/EUC 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB 
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ELAB, FR, PGOV, PINR, PREL, SOCI 
SUBJECT: SARKOWATCH: NICOLAS SARKOZY REGAINS SEAT IN THE 
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: In a special by-election on March 13, 
Nicolas Sarkozy regained his old seat in the National 
Assembly representing the affluent town of Neuilly in the 
suburbs west of Paris.  Sarkozy won handily in the first 
round garnering 71 percent of the vote.  It was the most 
comfortable margin of victory in Sarkozy's career.  Sarkozy 
will continue as president of the Union for a Popular 
Movement (UMP) party and as president of the council of Hauts 
de Seine department.  Sarkozy will use his return to the 
National Assembly to try and solidify support among UMP 
legislators for his 2007 presidential bid.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
EASY WIN IN SPECIAL BY-ELECTION 
------------------------------- 
2. (U) In a special by-election on March 13, Nicolas Sarkozy 
regained his old seat in the National Assembly representing 
the affluent town of Neuilly in the suburbs west of Paris. 
Sarkozy won handily in the first round garnering 71 percent 
of the vote.  He easily bested the Socialist Party candidate 
who placed second with 12 percent.  Facing a field of nine 
largely unknown candidates, Sarkozy's victory was nearly a 
foregone conclusion.  It was the most comfortable margin of 
victory in Sarkozy's long political career (he was first 
elected to public office in 1983 as mayor of Neuilly).  In 
his victory remarks, Sarkozy focused on the mediocre 
performance of the National Front (FN) candidate, Bruno 
Ligonie, who won 5.6 percent of the vote.  "This is the first 
time that the FN received such a low score in this district," 
Sarkozy said.  "The center-right, when it presents a coherent 
message, knows how to win over voters who are stuck in a 
dead-end." 
 
 
VICTORY CONTINUES WELL-ESTABLISHED PATTERN 
------------------------------------------ 
3. (U) In the most recent legislative elections (2002), 
Sarkozy won this same constituency handily with 69 percent of 
the vote.  In that contest, none of his 16 adversaries 
received more than 13 percent of the vote in the 6th district 
of the affluent Hauts de Seine department which comprises the 
western suburb towns of Neuilly and Puteaux.  Sarkozy was 
first elected to that Natonal Assembly seat in 1988.  He has 
kept that seat since that time -- giving it up only to serve 
as a minister in the governments of Edouard Balladur from 
1993-95 and of Jean-Pierre Raffarin from 2002-04. (NOTE: 
French law requires that ministers resign from national 
elective office in order to maintain the separation of powers 
between the executive and legislative branches. Ministers and 
legislators, however, can continue in local office.  Sarkozy 
has been president of the Hauts de Seine departmental council 
since 2004.  END NOTE.) 
 
REACTION TO SARKO'S RETURN 
-------------------------- 
4. (U) Following Sarkozy's victory, National Assembly 
President -- and the de facto leader of the Chirac loyalists 
in the National Assembly -- Jean-Louis Debre commented that 
he awaited with "serenity" Sarkozy's return to the Assembly. 
COMMENT: As president of the UMP party, Sarkozy had the right 
to attend all meetings of the UMP groups in both the National 
Assembly and the Senate.  However, now as a member of the 
Assembly, Sarkozy's activism will carry that much more weight 
in Assembly UMP councils -- as will his arm-twisting of 
colleagues who may be undecided about supporting him or 
President Chirac.  END COMMENT. In remarks to the press, 
Bernard Accoyer, leader of the UMP group in the Assembly, 
said that "The return of Nicolas Sarkozy will enrich our 
debates and aid the government in its modernization program 
which is indispensable to our country."  For his part, PM 
Raffarin noted in a radio interview that he did not believe 
Sarkozy's return to the Assembly would result in "a crisis" 
between Sarkozy and the government. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
5. (SBU) In his victory remarks, Sarkozy focused on the poor 
showing of his FN rival.  Sarkozy insisted that a liberal (in 
the French sense), center-right candidate can give hope to -- 
and win the votes of -- lower income voters who are 
economically insecure and feel threatened by social change. 
 Both the UMP and PS consider that many of those who have 
voted FN in the recent past have done so more from 
frustration and fear than from deep-seated bigotry or fascist 
predilections.  In competing for these voters -- why they 
should look to the future with hope -- UMP, center-right 
"opportunity" will go head-to-head against PS, center-left 
"solidarity".  END COMMENT. 
Leach