US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN451

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000451 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2015 
TAGS: PARM, PBTS, PREL, AJ, AM 
SUBJECT: SPIKE IN N-K CEASE-FIRE VIOLATIONS "SEASONAL" 
 
 
Classified By: DCM A.F. Godfrey for reasons 1.4 (b, d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) The number of cease-fire violations along the line of 
contact between ethnic Armenian and Azerbaijan forces in the 
Nagorno-Karabakh region has increased dramatically since the 
beginning of March.  Although accusations of responsibility 
and casualty figures vary according to the source of the 
press reports, all confirm that there have been casualties -- 
including deaths -- on both sides of the line.  While these 
incidents are alarming, local experts, including the OSCE 
Special Representative for N-K, assure us that they are a 
seasonal occurrence.  With weather conditions improving, 
soldiers are moving about more and are reconnoitering 
opposing positions.  End Summary. 
 
2. (C) General Mikael Melkonyan of the Ministry of Defense 
confirmed Azeri press reports of up to seven cease-fire 
violations between January 30 and March 6, and the Armenian 
press reported cease-fire violations which occurred on March 
7, 8, 9, and 10.  The press reported gunfire across the line 
of contact in the Agdam region of Azerbaijan during the March 
incidents and stated there were several Azeri casualities. 
The Armenian press has reported no ethnic Armenian 
casualties, but General Melkonyan stated that one or two 
solders were killed and two wounded on the Armenian side 
March 7. 
 
3. (SBU) Armenia's sensationalist press emphasized the 
solidity of the Armenian defenses and stated that all 
incidents had been provoked by Azerbaijan.  There was even 
some press speculation about whether the incidents are part 
of an Azeri strategy to take strategic positions near the 
line of contact.  One editorial concluded that the Azeris 
only sought to test the resolve of the Armenian defenders and 
assured readers that the Armenians could stop and counter any 
serious attack by Azerbaijan.  The Government of the Republic 
of Armenia has made no official statement on the incidents, 
but statements by representatives of the so-called 
"Nagorno-Karabakh Republic" have been broadly covered in the 
Armenian press. 
 
4. (C) On March 13, Andrzej Kasprzyk, the representative of 
OSCE's Chairman in Office on N-K, told the Ambassador that 
the increase in incidents on the line of contact is seasonal. 
 Each year when the weather improves, forces on both sides of 
the line of contact probe opposing forces and the 
unfortunate, but inevitable results are cease-fire violations. 
 
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COMMENT 
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5. (C) While the increase in reports of cease-fire violations 
may be an annual occurrence, they are still cause for concern 
and serve as a reminder of the potential volatility of this 
long-dormant conflict. 
EVANS