US embassy cable - 02KATHMANDU882

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000882 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/05/2012 
TAGS: PTER, MCAP, PGOV, NP, Maoist Insurgency 
SUBJECT: ARMY SCORES INTELLIGENCE, PR VICTORY IN ATTACK ON 
MAOIST CAMP 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 872 
 
Classified By: A/DCM MICHAEL HOZA.  REASON:  1.5(B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) Royal Nepal Army (RNA) troops have been engaged since 
late May 2 in an attack on what may be a major Maoist 
logistics base in Lisne Lek, Rolpa District in western Nepal. 
 According to the RNA, the Maoists, who have sustained at 
least 100 casualties, are attempting to withdraw from the 
area in small groups, without engaging government troops. 
The RNA is still conducting blocking operations and expects 
to recover a significant number of weapons previously stolen 
by the insurgents from the security forces in previous 
attacks.  The RNA attack was prompted by information on the 
camp's location from a local villager--the first time, to our 
knowledge, the army has proven able to act on intelligence so 
successfully.  Reports of the attack--and positive reaction 
from Parliamentarians invited to visit the relevant RNA 
division headquarters--are giving the Government of Nepal 
(GON) and the RNA a timely public relations boost just as 
Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba prepares to meet President 
Bush in Washington May 7.  End summary. 
 
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FIGHTING IN ROLPA CONTINUES 
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2.  (SBU) Fighting between Royal Nepal Army (RNA) troops and 
Maoist insurgents at what appears to be a major Maoist 
logistics base in Lisne Lek, Rolpa District, continued for 
the fourth day today (Reftel), according to Director of 
Military Operations Brig. Gen. Pradeep Malla.  Malla 
reiterated that information, conveyed from the field in 
western Nepal by radio, remains sketchy.  At least 100 
insurgents have been confirmed dead, Malla asserted; blood 
trails and RNA rounds fired are pushing RNA estimates of 
Maoist dead past the 300 mark, however.  (Note:  Local press 
reports on May 6 noted that only 15 bodies had been recovered 
thus far.  End note.)  Only three RNA soldiers and one 
civilian policeman have been killed in the fighting to date. 
Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Pyar Jung Thapa told the 
Ambassador late May 4 that he believed Maoist casualties were 
between 350 to 400. 
 
3.  (C)  According to Malla, the RNA first learned the 
location of the site from a local villager, who reported 
insurgents gathering in the jungle with food supplies, 
weapons, and water buffalo.  On May 2 three platoons from the 
4th Brigade in Surkhet District were dispatched toward the 
area from three different sides.  Insurgents fired on one of 
the platoons, forcing it to withdraw to a 6,000-foot 
elevation (Reftel).  A local journalist said RNA sources had 
told him the Maoists fired with machine guns and SLRs 
captured from the RNA during the attacks on RNA bases at Dang 
and Achham.  The platoon was encircled, and the Maoists began 
launching human wave attacks, firing weapons and throwing 
pipe bombs, in an apparent attempt to get the RNA to use up 
its ammunition.  The soldiers could hear the Maoist 
commanders ordering the cadre forward by megaphone. The RNA 
source said the encircled platoon selectively picked off the 
attackers in the human wave, instead of wasting ammunition in 
long bursts of firing.  Members of the platoon estimated they 
saw at least 350 bodies of insurgents in the vicinity. 
 
4.  (C)  Later that night, the platoon retreated from the 
elevation to a more defensible position.  Some reinforcements 
arrived the morning of May 3, but when the reinforced company 
went back up the hill, the piles of bodies seen the night 
before had disappeared.  There was evidence of bodies having 
been dragged through the underbrush, according to the source. 
 Malla reported further reinforcements (about 200 troops) 
reached the area mid-day May 4.  At present, Malla said, the 
Maoists are generally not fighting back, but are instead 
attemtping to retreat from the densely forested area in 
groups of two or three, likely in an effort to re-consolidate 
personnel and weapons in another location.  The RNA is still 
establishing blocking positions in an effort to interdict the 
retreating insurgents.  He could offer no figure on the 
possible number of Maoist prisoners captured thus far. 
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MAJOR BASE? 
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5.  (C) Malla said the villager's information had helped the 
RNA stumble upon what seems to have been a major logistics 
base for the Maoists.  Troops in the area have discovered 
1,000 dishes and plates cached in the jungle, he reported, as 
well as other cooking gear, bunkers, and houses with 
(presumably Maoist) families living in them, indicating that 
the area was used as a large staging area for the insurgents. 
 The RNA anticipates being able to recapture from the area at 
least half of the weapons stolen from Army and police in 
previous Maoist attacks, Malla said, without explaining the 
basis for this estimate.  He speculated that the insurgents 
were likely staging for a major attack--possibly on district 
headquarters in Rolpa--in the near future.  The RNA's 
aggressive action had pre-empted the planned strike, he noted 
with satisfaction.  Lt. Gen. Thapa also believes that the 
Maoists had assembled in number in advance of a planned major 
attack. 
 
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MORALE BOOST 
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6.  (C) The good news trickling out of Rolpa seems to have 
given the beleaguered Government of Nepal (GON) a significant 
morale boost just as Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba 
prepares to meet President Bush in Washington May 7.  A local 
journalist who attended a speech given by the often less than 
fully articulate Prime Minister May 3 in Kathmandu said he 
had not seen Deuba so forceful and confident in his public 
comments--in which he discounted prospects for peace talks 
until the Maoists lay down their arms--since his early days 
as a freedom fighter, before Panchayat regime torture 
permanently damaged his tongue.  Also atypical was the RNA's 
decision to invite 17 Members of Parliament for a tour, 
escorted by CGS Gen. Thapa, of some of the western division's 
area of operations May 5.  (Note:  The idea of inviting the 
politicians had been first suggested to the RNA by the 
Ambassador.  End note.)  The tour was apparently well 
received by both ruling and Opposition MPs, who were quoted 
in the local press voicing (equally atypical) praise for the 
RNA's efforts.  Embassy DATT suggested to Malla that the RNA 
invite the press corps and resident DATTs on a tour of the 
site once the battle concludes; Malla agreed. 
 
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COMMENT 
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7.  (C)  Although details of the engagement remain hazy, the 
verdict from the local press, the GON, and the RNA is that 
the Army has scored a significant victory.  From what we can 
tell right now, we would agree.  While the casualty count 
sounds a bit skewed, the real significance of this battle 
lies not in the number of Maoists killed or captured, or even 
in the volume of weapons the RNA (perhaps optimistically) 
expects to recover, but in several other factors.  With this 
engagement, the RNA has proven that it can react to reliable 
intelligence to seize the initiative from the insurgents. 
The villager's willingness to volunteer the information can 
only count as a major breakthrough in the ongoing battle for 
hearts and minds.  The RNA's invitation to Paliamentarians, 
coupled with a possible follow-up invitation to the press 
corps, demonstrates the army's evolving awareness of the 
importance of public relations to the success of their 
efforts--also a signficant breakthrough.  Finally, the 
Maoists' response to the RNA initiative is also instructive. 
In the past, the insurgents have typically chosen their own 
battle sites, launching surprise attacks on police or army 
locked in static positions, such as a barracks or police 
post.  That the insurgents are apparently electing to retreat 
when surprised in the field indicates that they are likely 
unable to engage the RNA in a meeting encounter.  It is too 
soon to tell if the RNA has turned the corner in this fight, 
but the signs so far are encouraging. 
MALINOWSKI