US embassy cable - 05AMMAN2055

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002055 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR OES/PCI/Ellen Shaw 
STATE ALSO FOR NEA/ELA and NEA/RA/Lawson 
STATE PASS USAID/EGAT/MERC/David O'Brien 
INTERIOR FOR International/Washburne and BuRec 
INTERIOR FOR USGS/International 
COMMERCE FOR NOAA/International/Ware-Harris 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
TAGS: SENV, EAID, TPHY, PREL, IS, JO 
SUBJECT: MERC "Red-Dead" Project Promotes Scientific Engagement 
on Controversial Project 
 
Ref:  Amman 1945 (notal) 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: A USAID Middle East Regional Cooperation 
(MERC)-funded project on the proposed multi-billion dollar "Red- 
Dead" project to bring Red Sea water to the Dead Sea is expanding 
scientific and governmental cooperation between Israel and 
Jordan.  There are no conclusions yet on the impacts of the 
project, and the USG remains neutral.  The Jordanian Government 
continues to promote the proposals, most recently during the 
visit of Foreign Minister al-Mulki March 5-6 to Israel.  However, 
the economic case for spending billions on the project has yet to 
be made.  End summary. 
 
Background: Red Sea Water for Desalination, Save Dead Sea 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
2.  (SBU) The notional "Red-Dead" project, strongly supported by 
the GOJ, would transfer water from the Gulf of Aqaba (part of the 
Red Sea) through a canal or pipeline to a hydropower plant and 
onward to a massive desalination plant 1,200 feet below sea level 
near the Dead Sea.  The GOJ hopes for financial support coming 
from outside grants or concessional financing.  The brine from 
the desalination plant, plus water directly from the Gulf of 
Aqaba, would be put into the Dead Sea to reverse its annual one- 
meter drop.  The project has languished for eighteen months while 
Jordan, Israel and the Palestinian Authority negotiate terms of 
reference for a feasibility study. 
 
NGO Coordinating Background Study on Red-Dead 
--------------------------------------------- - 
3. (SBU) The USAID-funded MERC project on the Red-Dead is 
organized by Friends of the Earth Middle East (FOEME), which 
convened a meeting at the Dead Sea on February 28 to review 
progress.  The MERC Red-Dead project has been gradually expanding 
its reach into the scientific and governmental communities in 
Jordan and Israel as participants grapple with the complexities 
of the enormous infrastructure project.  FOEME, the Geological 
Survey of Israel and the Jordanian Royal Scientific Society are 
the principal participants. 
 
Jordanian Government Still Eager 
-------------------------------- 
4. (SBU) During his March 6 visit to Israel, Jordanian Foreign 
Minister Hani Al-Mulki raised the Red-Dead project in his 
discussions with top Israeli officials.  According to press 
reports, Al-Mulki and Deputy Prime Minister Shimon Peres agreed 
to continue studying the project.  No detailed agreements were 
announced.  Israeli MFA contacts told Tel Aviv ESTHOff that there 
has been no change in the Israeli position on the Terms of 
Reference (TOR) dispute.  The Jordanian MFA reports there has 
been no formal agreement.  . 
 
No Answers Yet; USG Remains Neutral on Outcome 
--------------------------------------------- - 
5. (SBU) MERC project participants are still in the early stages 
of planning research, deciding what questions to ask, collecting 
information and assembling the tools needed to analyze the 
complex scientific, ecological and socio-economic impacts of the 
proposed project.  It will be at least a year before any results 
of their study are available.  Amman and Tel Aviv ESTHOffs have 
attended FOEME's Red-Dead project reviews and have encouraged the 
process of Israeli-Jordanian-Palestinian engagement to discuss 
the impacts of Red-Dead but ESTHOffs have maintained the USG's 
neutrality on the advisability of Red-Dead itself. 
 
Ministry Ties Expanding 
----------------------- 
6. (SBU) In a new development in the MERC project, Suhail 
Wahsheh, Advisor to the Secretary General of the Jordan Valley 
Authority within the Ministry of Water and Irrigation (MWI), 
attended the February 28 MERC Red-Dead project review meeting. 
Wahsheh's involvement in the MERC project will boost the effort's 
impact by giving it a connection with official Red-Dead planning 
at the Ministry of Water and Irrigation.  The Royal Scientific 
Society, Jordan's lead partner in the Red-Dead MERC project, is a 
respected but bureaucratically weak quasi-governmental 
organization that lacks direct input into policy channels.  The 
Ministry's participation in the MERC project will help put the 
eventual conclusions of the MERC project into Jordan's 
governmental planning process for Red-Dead. 
 
Project Producing Permanent Gains in Tools, Information 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
7. (SBU) A welcome outcome from the project is the production of 
tools and information that will make a lasting contribution to 
scientific knowledge.  Specifically because of the MERC project, 
the Geological Survey of Israel is developing computer maps of 
the Dead Sea and Wadi Araba/Arava Valley that integrate data from 
satellite images, air photos, tectonic maps, maps of wells and 
water resources, bathymetry and radar images.  These 
sophisticated products will be useful for many other projects in 
the area.  Similarly, the Royal Scientific Society has begun 
collecting marine data for the Gulf of Aqaba and socio-economic 
data on Wadi Araba that will be a resource in the future, as well 
as being a crucial component for the Red-Dead decision-making 
process.  The Geological Survey of Israel is also developing 
computer models from the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) that push 
the boundaries of knowledge with respect to chemical interactions 
in saline water. 
 
Informal Interactions Increasing 
-------------------------------- 
8. (SBU) Even more welcome are the increasingly open back-channel 
exchanges between the participants that go beyond the Red-Dead 
project.  For example, at the February 28 meeting, the Israeli 
side spent some time over lunch talking about the results of 
their multi-year study on sinkholes near the Dead Sea.  Sinkholes 
are a phenomenon attributed to the declining water level in the 
Dead Sea but are not specifically addressed in the MERC Red-Dead 
project.  The Israeli representatives at the Red-Dead meeting 
offered to share their findings on the sinkholes with Jordan, a 
notable act of collegiality.  The Israelis invested years and 
millions of dollars in the study.  The results could be easily 
utilized by Jordan to do hazard mapping and save millions of 
dollars in infrastructure losses. 
 
Good Science Critical to Multi-Billion Dollar Project 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
9. (SBU) Looking narrowly at the scientific aspects, the MERC Red- 
Dead project represents an important step forward in advancing 
scientific knowledge on the Red-Dead that will be crucial to the 
expensive decisions to follow.  The stakes are high.  The Dead 
Sea is a focal point in both Jordan and Israel for two major 
industries, chemicals and tourism, that create thousands of jobs 
and bring in billions of dollars. 
 
But Good Economics Must Also Play A Key Role 
-------------------------------------------- 
10. (SBU) Although there may be political and scientific benefits 
to the MERC project, the economics of the Red-Dead project itself 
must be demonstrated before any final go-ahead is granted.  The 
feasibility study, if the partners ever agree to its Terms of 
Reference, will help determine whether billions would best be 
spent on Red-Dead or on other projects which might better address 
the water and power needs of the region. 
 
HALE