US embassy cable - 05OTTAWA761

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000761 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CA, PGOV, PREL, Budget, Conservative Party, Liberal Party 
SUBJECT: LIBERAL BUDGET PASSES AT CONSERVATIVE,S EXPENSE 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: The Liberal Government,s Federal budget 
passed March 9 by a vote of 132 to 73, after the largest mass 
abstention in Canadian Parliamentary history by the 
Opposition Conservative Party.  The Conservatives were 
anxious to avoid an election, and given the roughly even 
numbers of opposition and government in Parliament, were 
effectively forced to abstain from their own opposition 
amendment lest they bring the government down.  The big 
winners in the showdown were the Bloc Quebecois, which showed 
itself as the only party that is truly ready to go to 
elections, and the Liberals, who watched their opponent flail 
about but in the end got their budget passed.  End Summary 
 
2. (SBU) The federal budget was tabled on February 23.  The 
Official Opposition Conservative Party (99 of 308 seats) 
stated that with polls indicating Canadians do not want an 
election, they would not work to defeat the budget.  The key 
question was what the Bloc Quebecois (54 seats) and the New 
Democratic Party (19 seats) would do.  The approval system 
calls for a vote on a sub-amendment by the third largest 
party (Bloc Quebecois), followed by the main amendment by the 
Official Opposition (Conservatives).  Under a normal majority 
government, these amendments are merely a chance for the 
opposition to register complaints and score political points, 
but in the end the governing party will simply pass the 
budget.  In a minority government, however, the amendments 
take on much greater importance, especially since the budget 
is an obvious confidence vote.  The trick for the 
Conservatives was how to play the role of the opposition 
without forcing an election.  They hoped to do this by 
inserting things the Bloc and NDP could not accept, such as 
tax cuts, criticism of environmental and child-care spending, 
and lamenting the budget,s &lack of Conservative values,8 
thus forcing the Bloc and NDP to vote for the government,s 
budget and leaving the Conservatives alone in opposition. 
 
Shoot Out with the Bloc 
----------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) The Bloc, emboldened by its continuing popularity in 
Quebec and not fearing elections, was in no mood to go along, 
however.  The voting process for the budget began on March 7 
with the Bloc Quebecois, sub-amendment being quickly 
defeated.  Prior to the vote on the Conservative amendment 
March 8, Liberal House Leader Valerie announced his 
understanding that the Bloc would vote to support the 
Conservative amendment, thus passing the amendment and 
crashing the government.  Chief of Staff to the Bloc House 
Leader told us that this was a possibility, but would only be 
decided at a Bloc caucus meeting an hour before the vote. 
The Conservatives could not take a chance, so were forced to 
position their member,s votes such that they ensured the 
defeat of their own amendment.   They did this by leaving 
some members outside the House to guarantee the amendment 
would fail even with Bloc support, which did not come 
through.  In the end the Bloc voted against and the 
Conservatives abstained from the Conservative amendment, not 
a good day for opposition coalition building. 
 
Mass Abstention 
--------------- 
 
4. (SBU) The final budget vote was held on March 9. 
Following the previous day,s close call, Conservative House 
Leader Jay Hill announced that the Conservative Party would 
abstain en masse from the budget vote in order not to spark 
an undesired election.  Later, Conservative Leader Harper 
suggested the mass abstention was actually a protest, 
designed to send a message of disapproval to the government 
while still allowing the budget to pass.  In the largest 
abstention in Canadian Parliamentary history, the 82 
Conservatives MPs on the floor did not vote for or against 
the budget but simply remained sitting throughout.  (Note: 
traditionally MPs only abstain when they wish to voice strong 
personal or constituent opposition to a motion without openly 
defying their leaders or the party position.  The 
conventional way to influence voting when numbers must be 
withdrawn, is to arrange for MPs to be absent from the House, 
something that is easier to explain to constituents than the 
passive-aggressive motion of simply not participating.  End 
Note)  The final vote was 132 in favor of the budget (all 
Liberals plus one independent), to 73 against (all the Bloc 
and the NDP). 
 
5. (SBU) Comment:  In the end there appears to be several 
winners and one loser in this process. The Liberal Party 
clearly came out on top because their budget was passed and 
they did not have to give much up in the process.  With a 
generous budget and a recent, successful party convention 
behind them the Liberals have come across looking good and 
may see their numbers start to go up as a result, especially 
as the new spending kicks in.  The Bloc Quebecois was also a 
clear winner, by making both the Liberals and Conservatives 
stand up and take notice that the Bloc must be reckoned with. 
 The NDP wins with their own constituents because they are 
the only party to have avoided brinkmanship games while 
sticking to party policy throughout the process.  An NDP 
official also told us that the party will be jumping on this 
opportunity to target ridings in Western Canada where a 
Conservative defeated an NDP candidate by less than 200 
votes.  Reportedly, there are 20 such seats ready for NDP 
plucking.  The NDP will use the mass abstention as proof that 
the Conservative Party plays political games and is not 
representing the people effectively.  The clear loser was the 
Conservative Party, which not only had to scramble to ensure 
the defeat of its own amendment, but was forced to abstain 
from the most important vote of the season.  It was not what 
the Opposition is supposed to be doing on the Hill, and 
tarnished the Party,s image considerably.  The Conservatives 
will need to dig out at the upcoming convention. 
 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
CELLUCCI