US embassy cable - 05ANKARA1339

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001339 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, TU 
SUBJECT: EU TROIKA VISIT HIGHLIGHTS DEFICIENCIES IN 
TURKEY'S EU DRIVE 
 
REF: A. ANKARA 1074 
 
     B. ANKARA 1049 
 
Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Eric S. Edelman; reasons 1.4 b 
and d. 
 
1. (C) Summary: In a visit overshadowed by media images of 
police beating demonstrators in Istanbul (septel), the EU 
Troika visited Ankara March 6-7 to discuss the upcoming 
accession talks with Turkey.  PM Erdogan and FM Gul insisted 
the GOT remains focused on EU-related reform.  However, EU 
contacts said the Turks presented no program for further 
progress, and appeared to be suffering from "reform fatigue." 
 Troika representatives praised past GOT reforms, urged 
further progress on the rights of non-Muslims, and advised 
the GOT to address the allegations of a "genocide" committed 
by the Ottomans against Armenians.  Enlargement Commissioner 
Rehn said the EU cannot begin accession talks before the 
official start date in October, but can open some EU aquis 
chapters before the end of 2005.  The Troika urged the GOT to 
move quickly to initial the Ankara Agreement extension 
protocol.  Troika officials also advised GOT leaders to 
support the international consensus calling for a Syrian 
withdrawal from Lebanon; Gul said the GOT is cooperating with 
Syria's Assad to promote reform, which he claimed Assad 
favors.  End Summary. 
 
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Rehn Issues Subtle, Direct Warning 
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2. (C) The EU Troika -- represented by Enlargement 
Commissioner Rehn, Luxembourgian FM Asselborn, and UK 
Minister for Europe MacShane -- met with PM Erdogan and FM 
Gul in Ankara March 6 and 7 to discuss Turkey's upcoming EU 
accession negotiations.  The visit came in the wake of a 
public dispute over the lack of progress in Turkey's EU 
accession drive  since the December 17 Summit (reftel A), for 
which each side has blamed the other.  According to European 
and GOT contacts, Erdogan and Gul insisted in public and 
private that the GOT has not lost momentum in the EU reform 
process.  Gul claimed EU accession will remain the GOT's top 
priority.  However, a Danish diplomat told us MFA Spokesman 
Namik Tan admitted privately on the margins of the meetings 
that the GOT has lost focus since the Summit.  A number of 
contacts from the European Commission and EU-member-state 
embassies said the GOT appears to be suffering from "reform 
fatigue."  GOT representatives briefed the Troika on past 
reform legislation, but had very little to say about future 
plans.  "There was no program for the coming year," said 
Martin Dawson, head of the Political Section at the European 
Commission Representation to Turkey.  Dawson said Rehn 
expressed his disappointment in a direct but subtle manner. 
Rehn advised Erdogan and Gul to "look at Slovakia, Croatia, 
and Romania," three countries for which the EU postponed, or 
considered postponing, negotiations when political reforms 
stalled.  Rehn also emphasized that all states, big and 
small, will be treated equally, a warning that the EU will 
not go easy on Turkey because it is large, Dawson said. 
 
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EU: Process Cannot Start Before October 
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3. (U) The GOT pressed the Troika to speed up Turkey's 
accession schedule, by starting the screening process before 
the official opening of talks in October and setting earlier 
deadlines for two upcoming reports on Turkish accession. 
Rehn said the Commission cannot advance the schedule, but 
will expedite the process by opening negotiations on certain 
chapters of the EU aquis while simultaneously screening 
others.  Rehn identified research and education as two 
chapters requiring little or no screening, and for which 
formal negotiations could be opened before the end of 2005. 
 
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Freedom for Non-Muslims Emphasized 
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4. (U) The EU representatives praised the GOT for its 
adoption of a new Penal Code and five other major new laws 
that will take effect in April.  They called on the GOT to 
make more progress on the rights of non-Muslims, including by 
adopting new legislation enabling non-Muslim foundations to 
regain expropriated properties.  They also encouraged further 
reforms limiting the political influence of the military. 
Neither side raised the issue of Erdogan's failure to date to 
name a lead EU negotiator. 
 
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Armenian "Genocide" To Be Reviewed 
---------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) MacShane pressed Erdogan, Gul and Deniz Baykal, 
chairman of the opposition Republican Peoples' Party (CHP), 
to support a serious examination by historians of the 
massacre of Armenians under the Ottoman Empire and the 
allegations that these massacres constituted a "genocide." 
MacShane advised the GOT to submit the issue to a UN forum, 
and agree in advance to accept the forum's conclusions.  Gul 
said the GOT will consider the idea. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Syria's Assad "Good Guy Surrounded by Bad People" 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
6. (C) Troika officials urged the GOT to join the 
international consensus on Syrian occupation of Lebanon and 
press the Syrian regime to withdraw.  MacShane stressed that 
Turkey is an important player in the region, and should use 
its newly strengthened relationship with Syria as a lever to 
encourage compliance with UNSCR 1559.  GOT officials did not 
respond directly to the request, except to note the GOT's 
(weak) March 7 statement in support of UNSCR 1559.  Gul, 
describing Assad as a "good guy surrounded by bad people," 
asserted that the Syrian leader wants to reform his country, 
but must proceed carefully.  Gul said the GOT is cooperating 
with Assad to encourage reform. 
 
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Turks Urged to Initial Trade Protocol 
------------------------------------- 
 
7. (U) The Troika pressed the Turks to act sooner rather than 
later to initial the Ankara Agreement extension protocol, 
which would formally extend Turkey's Customs Union agreement 
to new EU member states (reftel B), noting that it will take 
about three months for the EU to translate and ratify the 
document.  However, the EU representatives did not set a 
specific deadline.  Rehn averred that it will be easier for 
the EU to move forward with trade and aid programs aimed at 
the TRNC once Turkey initials the protocol.  Recognizing that 
the GOT will issue a statement declaring that the protocol 
does not constitute Turkish recognition of the Republic of 
Cyprus (ROC), the Troika stressed that the declaration should 
be worded carefully to avoid provoking a diplomatic clash. 
MFA acting DDG Bilman is still confident the Turks and the EU 
will have no difficulty agreeing on the text of the protocol 
itself.  The EU also urged the Turks to change the GOT policy 
of blocking EU-NATO cooperation because of Turkey's 
objections to ROC participation.  As in the past, Gul 
insisted Turkey cannot make concessions in this area in the 
absence of EU progress in ending the isolation of the Turkish 
Cypriots. 
 
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MFA: Visit Successful, But Doubts Remain 
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8. (C) Several European contacts said the scenes of police 
beating International Women's Day demonstrators in Istanbul 
March 6 cast a dark shadow over the visit, made worse by the 
GOT's apparent lack of zeal for further reform.  However, Ali 
Kemal Aydin, department head at the MFA Deputy Directorate 
General for EU Affairs, asserted that the visit was 
essentially a success.  Despite the tensions over the 
Istanbul violence, the meetings allowed Erdogan and Gul to 
establish a "sound working relationship" with Rehn.  Aydin 
said he was pleased to hear Rehn repeatedly refer to the EU 
and Turkey as "partners" in his public statements, which he 
hopes indicates a more open approach to Turkey on the part of 
the EU.  But he said the GOT continues to believe the EU is 
less supportive of Turkey than past candidates.  During the 
meetings, Turkish officials complained that Turkey is 
receiving far less in per capita EU assistance than fellow 
candidate state Croatia. 
 
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Comment 
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9. (C) This visit did get Turkey's EU candidacy back on track 
in a formal sense by enabling GOT leaders to establish 
contact with the new Enlargement Commisioner.  It also 
served, however, to underscore not only the recent stagnation 
in Turkey's accession process, but the GOT's lack of 
enthusiasm for further reform as well.  Moreover, coverage of 
the Istanbul violence erased, for the time being at least, 
whatever improvements the GOT had made to Turkey's image 
through the reform process.  As reported reftel A, the EU is 
partly responsible for the recent lack of progress.  But the 
GOT will have no one to blame if it fails to develop and 
carry out a program to further the reform process. 
EDELMAN