US embassy cable - 05ANKARA1334

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001334 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2015 
TAGS: PREL, TU, LE, SY, IS 
SUBJECT: TURKISH MFA ON SYRIA, LEBANON, AND MIDDLE EAST 
PEACE 
 
REF: ANKARA 1213 
 
(U) Classified by Ambassador Eric Edelman, E.O> 12958, 
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary. Turkish MFA DG Celikkol told us the MFA 
called in the Syrian Ambassador March 9 and urged Syria to 
"avoid a crisis" in Lebanon, but stopped short of anything 
stronger.  MFA officials still assert that a reduced Syrian 
role in Lebanon will threaten "stability."  They view Assad 
as a would-be reformer contending with old-guard Ba'athists. 
MFA officials claim PM Erdogan has made a decision to visit 
Israel and the only remaining issue is timing.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (U) Ankara DCM hosted a March 10 luncheon for Turkish MFA 
DG for Middle East Affairs Celikkol, and Middle East 
Department Heads Bozay and Botsali. 
 
MFA Calls in Syrian Ambassador on Troop Withdrawal 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
3.  (C) Instead of sending a letter to Assad from PM Erdogan 
on Syria withdrawing its troops from Lebanon (reftel), 
Celikkol said the MFA ultimately decided to call in the 
Syrian Ambassador on March 9.  Celikkol said FM Gul and U/S 
Tuygan urged Syria to "avoid a crisis."  The Gul meeting 
lasted about ten minutes.  As Celikkol described it, Gul 
urged the Syrians to "beware of escalation" but "did not tell 
them (the Syrians) what to do." 
 
4.  (C) After the Gul meeting, Celikkol said, U/S Tuygan met 
with the Ambassador, urged full compliance with UNSCR 1559, 
and stressed that Lebanon's upcoming elections should be free 
of outside influence.  The Ambassador reportedly responded 
the world will be surprised at the speed of Syria's 
withdrawal but that is "the easy part;"  subsequent internal 
Lebanese politics will be difficult. 
 
Focus on "Stability" 
------------------- 
 
5.  (C) To this, Celikkol added his own concern about 
Lebanon's stability and wondered who will disarm Lebanon's 
militias.  DCM responded that Syria's presence is 
destabilizing and that UNSCR 1559 requires that militias 
disarm.  The international community will have to help 
Lebanon in this regard, and free Lebanese elections will 
increase incentives to disarm and pursue change through 
politics instead of violence.  Democratic change is occurring 
throughout the region and we all need to move forward. 
 
6.  (C) Celikkol expressed concern about "extreme Islamic 
elements" coming to power in elections.  DCM asked what the 
alternative is:  change is inevitable, trying to freeze the 
situation will only stoke extremism. 
 
Turkey's Lebanon and Syria Policies 
------------------------------------ 
 
7. (C) DCM asked Celikkol about Turkish media criticism that 
on Syria and Lebanon, Turkey's policies are "out of step" 
with the international community.  Celikkol admitted that a 
group of academics went even further with him recently, 
saying Turkey has "no policy."  Still, Celikkol maintained 
Turkey's Lebanon policy is clear:  support for 1559 and 
insistence on no outside interference with Lebanese politics. 
 
8.  (C) On Syria, Celikkol said "our leadership" sees Assad 
as flexible and susceptible to being influenced to promote 
change.  Asked for an example of such change, Celikkol 
replied that Syria is now willing to accede to whatever 
overall settlement terms the Palestinians can agree to with 
Israel and are ready for peace in exchange for return of 
Syrian territory.  Pressed, he claimed that this is an 
important change "as we understand it." 
 
9.  (C) DCM noted continued Syrian support for violent 
Palestinian rejectionist groups.  Celikkol agreed.  He 
admitted neither Gul nor Tuygan made this point to the Syrian 
Ambassador on March 9, but claimed Turkey "always" urges 
"moderation." 
 
10.  (C) Celikkol and Middle East Department Head Bozay 
predicted Assad would make economic reforms now more than 
ever, given Syria's potential loss of control in Lebanon's 
economy.  Asked whether economic reform was in the Assad 
family's interest, Bozay argued the Assad family would be 
able to make real economic reform while simultaneously 
keeping special benefits for itself.  Celikkol and Bozay 
claimed Turkey's FTA with Syria was consistent with EU 
harmonization requirements.  When pressed, Celikkol then 
admitted the EU is not currently pushing Turkey on the FTA. 
Under further questioning, Celikkol and his colleagues said 
the FTA has not yet been submitted to the Turkish Parliament 
and Turkey will follow the EU's lead on economic relations. 
 
11.  (C) Celikkol averred that Turkey wants a democratic 
Syria but that the "old system" could still beat down what he 
perceived as Assad's desire for reform. 
Turkey/Israel/Palestine 
----------------------- 
 
12.  (C) Celikkol said he will visit Israel and the 
Palestinian territories April 6-7.  DCM asked when PM Erdogan 
will visit Israel.  Celikkol replied the PM is committed to 
visiting Israel and only the timing remains to be worked out. 
 DCM noted the PM had recently found time to visit Ethiopia. 
PolCouns asked Celikkol whether Erdogan's failure to schedule 
a visit may be hindering a greater Turkish role in the peace 
process and whether the MFA has paid attention to subtle but 
unmistakeable Israeli hints in this regard.  Celikkol made as 
if he did not understand the point.  In response to the 
Turks' complaint that Turkey was excluded from the recent 
London conference on assistance to the Palestinians, DCM 
suggested that Turkey clarify what type of assistance it is 
prepared to offer. 
EDELMAN