US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV1456

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 001456 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, IS, GOI INTERNAL, ECONOMY AND FINANCE 
SUBJECT: MOST KNESSET MEMBERS, PUNDITS PREDICT BUDGET WILL 
PASS, BUT NO ONE KNOWS HOW 
 
REF: TEL AVIV 1362 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Prime Minister Sharon postponed the final 
votes on the 2005 budget, originally scheduled for March 17, 
counting on the fact that parties and MKs that could provide 
the crucial votes will not show their cards until they are 
pressed against the March 31 deadline -- and facing the 
prospect of public castigation for any collapse of the 
government.  Sharon concluded that a budget vote two weeks 
before the deadline might fail, and thus only serve to make 
him look weak, even if he managed to win in a re-vote.  Most 
Embassy contacts, including Shinui and opposition leader 
Tommy Lapid, and other MKs from a range of parties, have 
expressed certainty that the budget will pass, but few are 
prepared to predict which party(ies) or MKs will, in the end, 
provide the deciding combination of votes and abstentions. 
Most wavering parties want to make sure that their votes are 
indeed necessary for Sharon's -- and disengagement's -- 
survival, since, if Sharon were assured a surplus of budget 
votes, they would otherwise oppose the budget on political 
grounds.  End summary. 
 
2.  (C) Sharon can now count on 52 MKs, including 
unaffiliated MK Michael Nudelman, to support his budget.  In 
recent negotiations, the Finance Ministry agreed to certain 
United Arab List budget demands, which will likely yield 
Sharon that party's two votes or abstentions, perhaps giving 
Sharon a total of 54 votes.  Yahad MKs have told poloff that 
five out of its six members would either abstain in the vote 
or support the budget, depending on what is necessary for the 
government's survival, possibly providing Sharon 59 votes. 
Sharon, at that point, would thus appear to need a 
combination of only a few votes in favor or a few abstentions 
to ensure budget passage.  (Note: In a tie vote, the budget 
would fail.  End note.) 
 
3.  (C) Sharon, Finance Minister Netanyahu, and Finance 
Ministry officials have all met with wavering parties and 
MKs, trying to win their support.  Sharon met March 10 with 
unaffiliated MKs Joseph Paritzky, Michael Nudelman, and David 
Tal in attempts to secure their support, but Tal demanded 
(unsuccessfully) budget concessions, and Paritzky agreed only 
to abstain.  Netanyahu has been meeting with several of the 
13 Likud MK "rebels" who threaten to oppose the budget unless 
Sharon holds a disengagement referendum, but none of the 13 
has indicated that (s)he will fold.  Sharon used a speaking 
opportunity to mark International Women's Day to urge the 
wives of Likud members to use their influence to convince the 
Likud rebels to support the budget. 
 
4.  (C) Shinui and Shas continue to oppose the budget, but 
pundits continue to talk about the possibility that either A) 
Shinui will provide 11th hour support, or B) Sharon and 
Netanyahu will get Shas to drop its opposition to the budget 
by agreeing to Shas's demand to restore child allowances. 
Shinui leader Lapid told the Ambassador March 9 that he still 
believes the best option for Sharon is to take Shinui back 
into the coalition, and thus acquire Shinui's 14 votes for 
the budget.  Lapid dismissed the argument that such an action 
would prompt even more Likud MKs to rebel against Sharon, 
stressing that a Likud-Labor-Shinui coalition would not be -- 
as some in Likud charge -- a secular, leftist coalition. 
While Lapid indicated that he is still deliberating on how 
Shinui will vote in the end, he highlighted the difficulty 
Shinui would have in either casting abstentions or voting for 
the budget, given the fact that Shinui chose to leave the 
coalition over the budget.  Lapid cited recent polls showing 
that Shinui voters support Lapid's opposition to the budget. 
Responding to the Ambassador's query, Lapid acknowledged that 
differences of opinion exist within the Shinui faction, but 
said he will impose party discipline in the vote.  Shinui's 
holdout on the budget notwithstanding, Lapid predicted that 
the budget would pass with the help of Yahad and the Arab 
parties. 
 
 
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KURTZER