US embassy cable - 05DUBLIN300

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000300 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, PGOV, ECON, EAIR 
SUBJECT: SCENE-SETTER FOR IRISH PRIME MINISTER AHERN'S 
MEETING WITH THE PRESIDENT -- ST. PATRICK'S DAY, 2005 
 
Classified By: Ambassador James C. Kenny; Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
1.  (C) Prime Minister (Taoiseach) Bertie Ahern will visit 
the White House for the annual St. Patrick's Day events on 
March 17 at a time of uncertainty in the Northern Ireland 
peace process, but also at an opportune moment to advance 
trans-Atlantic dialogue.  Snowballing evidence of Sinn 
Fein/IRA involvement in criminality has reshaped this year's 
White House ceremonies and has complicated efforts by Ahern 
and the British Government to keep the peace process alive. 
The impasse in Northern Ireland, however, has by no means 
overshadowed the Republic of Ireland's growing influence 
within Europe -- as an economic pace-setter, as a role model 
for the accession states, and as an effective diplomatic 
broker.  Dublin's influence makes Ahern an important 
interlocutor on sustaining the positive momentum in U.S.-EU 
relations created by the President's European trip.  British 
diplomats in Dublin have said that Ireland can be more of a 
resource to the United States in its partnership with Europe. 
 Politically, the Taoiseach is focused on Ireland's elections 
in 2007 and on an Irish "yes" vote for the EU Constitution. 
 
Northern Ireland 
---------------- 
 
2.  (C) Near-certain IRA involvement in a December 26 Belfast 
bank robbery, the January 30 murder of Belfast resident 
Robert McCartney, and an alleged money-laundering scheme 
uncovered on February 17-18 in the Republic of Ireland has 
frozen the peace process at least until after the UK's May 
Westminster elections.  Ahern is committed to the process and 
believes that Sinn Fein must be included.  Along with Tony 
Blair, however, he has cited IRA criminality and 
intransigence on weapons decommissioning as the chief 
obstacles to a deal, adding to a steady drumbeat of public 
criticism that has put Sinn Fein/IRA on their heels.  In a 
significant shift, the GOI seems unwilling to leave 
decommissioning and criminality to the final stages of a 
deal, now seeing Sinn Fein/IRA good-faith actions on those 
fronts as necessary before intensive negotiations resume.  On 
March 17, Ahern will likely say that USG engagement, 
including tough messages on criminality, is essential in 
moderating Sinn Fein behavior and advancing the prospects for 
a deal. 
 
The European Agenda 
------------------- 
 
3.  (C) The President's meeting with Ahern provides an 
excellent opportunity to promote the Administration's agenda 
with Europe.  Ireland worked to repair strained U.S.-EU 
relations during its 2004 EU presidency, hosted a successful 
U.S.-EU Summit in June, and has since sought to maintain its 
role as a diplomatic bridge between Washington and Brussels. 
Recognizing Ireland's credentials in that role, the 
Commission chose former Irish Prime Minister John Bruton as 
the EU's Ambassador to the United States.  Ireland provides a 
moderating, mostly pro-U.S. voice in EU fora, especially on 
large issues of trans-Atlantic cooperation.  On individual 
trade and foreign policy issues, however, the GOI has been 
less helpful.  Ireland is conscious of its small country 
status and, in EU voting, tends to put its economic interests 
first and to follow the EU consensus. 
 
Irish Domestic Politics and Economics 
------------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) In European politics as in Irish politics, Ahern is 
savvy.  Earlier in 2004, his ruling Fianna Fail party 
suffered from popular perceptions that it was out of touch 
with social welfare concerns, despite having created 
unprecedented wealth in Ireland.  Ahern took steps to recast 
the party as more socially conscious by reshuffling his 
cabinet and reshaping the budget in favor of social spending. 
 These efforts have revived Fianna Fail's support, and Ahern 
now seeks to consolidate the party's position in the run-up 
to the 2007 general elections, which he hopes will deliver 
his valedictory term as Prime Minister. 
 
5.  (U) Economically, there has never been a better time to 
be Irish.  After a slight dip following the global post-9/11 
economic slowdown, Ireland's Celtic Tiger economy rebounded 
in 2004, registering 5 percent real GDP growth to lead EU 
Member States.  One of Europe's poorest countries in the 
1980s, Ireland now has the second highest GDP per capita in 
the EU, behind Luxembourg.  The Economist magazine also 
recently named Ireland as the world's most livable country. 
The Celtic Tiger economy has been fueled in large part by USD 
55 billion in investment from U.S. firms, which employ over 
90,000 Irish, mostly in the ICT, bio-pharmaceutical, and 
financial services sectors.  The employment and spillover 
benefits provided by U.S. firms is now as positive a factor 
in Irish perceptions of the United States as traditional ties 
of kinship and culture. 
 
Open Skies 
---------- 
 
6.  (C) The Taoiseach would welcome the opportunity to 
discuss with the President the Irish Cabinet's March 8 
decision to pursue a bilateral Open Skies arrangement with 
the United States -- effectively, a quiet deliverable for St. 
Patrick's Day.  The decision to enter into negotiations is a 
big step for Ireland, which for years has maintained 
protectionist elements in its civil aviation relationship 
with the United States.  The Cabinet decision will likely 
expose Ireland to a legal challenge from the EU Commission, 
which has received a mandate from the Member States to 
negotiate on civil aviation with the United States on behalf 
of the Community. 
 
Other Issues of Note 
-------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Based on our discussions with GOI sources, the 
following are other issues that the Taoiseach might raise: 
 
-- Africa/Development.  Ireland has been involved in Africa 
since the 19th century and endorses the UK's intention to 
make Africa/development a key focus of its upcoming EU 
presidency.  The GOI, however, shares U.S. concerns about 
novel UK proposals for development funding.  On Darfur, 
Ireland supports the EU position that human rights abuses 
should be referred to the International Criminal Court. 
 
-- The Middle East Peace Process (MEPP).  Ireland, like 
Europe, sees Mahmoud Abbas' election as the chance for a 
fresh start in MEPP and expresses hope that Gaza will not be 
Sharon's final stop on the Road Map.  Foreign Minster Dermot 
Ahern (no relation to the Prime Minister) plans to visit the 
Middle East this spring to meet with representatives from 
Israel, Palestine, Egypt, and Jordan. 
 
-- Lebanon.  Ahern will possibly have insights on 
investigations into the murder of former Lebanese Prime 
Minister Rafik Hariri, since Irish Deputy Police Commissioner 
Peter Fitzgerald is leading the UN team conducting the 
inquiry. 
 
-- The UN.  We expect the Taoiseach to raise UN reform with 
the President, as Ireland believes that the USG is central to 
reform efforts.  Ireland views the UN as a cornerstone of its 
foreign policy and is a long-time contributor to 
UN-authorized peacekeeping missions.  Ireland favors the 
establishment of UN civilian rapid response units and is also 
is considering a possible role in the proposed "EU 
battlegroups," which would precede UN blue-helmets into 
conflict regions.  British diplomats in Dublin have suggested 
that the USG work more closely with Ireland on human rights 
in the UN, given Irish credibility on such issues. 
 
-- Irish illegals.  Ahern will want to discuss the 
Administration's proposed changes to U.S. immigration laws, 
which would offer scope for working, illegal residents to 
legalize their status.  The number of illegal Irish in the 
United States is estimated at several thousand.  Perceived 
severity in the treatment of Irish illegals by U.S. law 
enforcement officials has received sensationalized treatment 
in the Irish press.  Irish Parliamentarians also plan to 
visit Congress to lobby on behalf of the proposed legislation. 
 
-- Russia.  Ahern might seek a read-out of the President's 
discussion with Russian President Putin in Bratislava, since 
the Taoiseach was tapped by EU colleagues to raise Russia 
with President Bush during discussions in Brussels.  Russia 
is raising its profile in Ireland, with Russian entrepreneurs 
pursuing Irish commercial opportunities. 
 
-- EU referendum.  The GOI has not yet set a date for a 
referendum on the European Constitutional Treaty, which must 
be ratified by all Member States by mid-2006.  Having 
shepherded the Constitution through negotiations during 
Ireland's 2004 EU presidency, Ahern would be embarrassed to 
see Irish voters cast a "no" vote, as happened in the first 
referendum on the Nice Treaty. 
KENNY