US embassy cable - 05CALCUTTA100

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CALCUTTA 000100 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS AND INR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT'S RULE DECLARED IN BIHAR 
 
REF: A) NEW DELHI 1519,  B) NEW DELHI 1304 
 
1.  (U)  SUMMARY.  On March 6 Governor Buta Singh concluded that 
no party or coalition had the numbers to govern in Bihar, and 
recommended President's Rule.  President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam 
accepted the recommendation and imposed President's Rule on 
March 7.  This marks the end - for now at least -- of Lalu 
Prasad Yadav's 15 years as the ruling power in Bihar.  The 
"kingmaker" could become Ram Vilas Paswan, whose 29 Lok 
Janashakti Party (LJP) seats could have given a governing 
majority to either of the main contending coalitions - except 
that he had forsworn them both.  The elected Members of the 
Legislative Assembly (MLAs) receive no pay, perks or power when 
the Assembly is not formed, providing a strong incentive to move 
toward a quick compromise.  Most observers are predicting that 
one side or the other will lure the LJP into its camp in the 
near future, but an extended President's Rule of six months or 
beyond remains a possibility.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U)  As the deadline of March 6 for the formation of popular 
government in Bihar expired, and having exhausted all efforts by 
every political combination to form the government, Governor 
Buta Singh recommended the imposition of President's Rule.  At 
the cabinet's behest, President Abdul Kalam promulgated Article 
356 of the Constitution the evening of March 7 imposing 
President's Rule in Bihar.  This means that Governor Singh 
becomes the Chief Administrator of the state with the help of 
advisors nominated by the Center, while the senior civil 
servants run their respective ministries under the overall 
guidance of the Chief Secretary.  This continues until a 
majority of the elected MLAs approach the Governor asking to 
form the government, or until a new election is - hopefully - 
able to produce a governing majority.  President's Rule can be 
imposed for a maximum period of six months from the date of its 
promulgation.  If need be, it can be extended for another six 
months, upon ratification by both the Houses of  Parliament. 
During this period, state budgetary proposals will be passed by 
the Parliament in New Delhi in the absence of a duly constituted 
State Assembly. 
 
3.  (U)  With a total of 243 seats in the Bihar State Assembly, 
122 MLAs constitute a governing majority.  In the February 
elections, Lalu's Rastriya Janata Dal (RJD) won the most seats 
with 75; in alliance with the Congress and the "secular" Left 
the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) total comes to 99.  The 
National Democratic Alliance (NDA) total comes to 92 (Bharatiya 
Janata Party (BJP) - 37 and Janata Dal (United) (JDU) -- 55). 
This placed Paswan with his 29 MLAs in the position of 
kingmaker.  With him, the UPA could govern outright, or the NDA 
could entice a few independent MLA's to achieve a majority. 
Paswan's LJP had been part of the NDA in the past, but broke 
away in April 2002 following the communal violence that broke 
out in the wake of the Godhra train fire, and Paswan has 
promised his Muslim constituents that he would join no coalition 
that includes the BJP.  Paswan's LJP currently is a part of the 
UPA coalition at the Center and he is himself the Union Minister 
for Chemicals and Fertilizers and Steel.  However, at the state 
level he is a bitter rival of Lalu - made more bitter when Lalu 
took the Railways Ministry that Paswan coveted - and he has 
sworn to join no alliance that includes the RJD.  Therefore, 
Paswan is a kingmaker who has tied his own hands behind his 
back.  Lalu, by contrast, is out of the Chief Minister's seat 
that he or his wife, Rabri Devi, have held almost continuously 
for fifteen years. 
 
4.  (SBU)  For the elected MLAs, the lack of a constituted 
Assembly has serious consequences.  They receive neither pay nor 
perks and enjoy little of the power and status of their office. 
As such, the MLAs have a powerful personal incentive to reach a 
compromise, and to do so quickly.  Most observers we have spoken 
to believe that some arrangement will be worked out, probably in 
as little as a month's time. 
 
5.  (SBU)  Several avenues are possible.  One would have Paswan 
joining the NDA, but promoting a Muslim candidate as Bihar's 
Chief Minister as a way of defusing his Muslim supporters' 
opposition to joining with the BJP.  (Comment:  Former BJP 
President and current MP Kalraj Mishra, told Delhi Poloff on 
March 8 that the BJP inner circle had ruled-out a Muslim Chief 
Minister for Bihar, as it is "unacceptable to the RSS.") 
Another would have the UPA broker a compromise between its 
internally warring factions, the RJD and LJP.  This would 
involve the right mix of flattery and coercion, and finding the 
right combination of benefits - at the Center and in the state - 
to satisfy the two leaders.  Presumably, for example, one party 
would get the coveted Railways Ministry at the Center, and the 
other the Chief Minister's position in Bihar.  A third option 
would involve internal party defections.  Since the 
anti-defection Act was implemented in May 2004, MLAs cannot 
switch parties freely.  However, Schedule X, Part IV of the 
Indian Constitution allows MLAs and Members of Parliament to 
defect and merge into another party -- provided that the group 
of defecting MLAs/MPs constitutes more than two-thirds of the 
party's strength.  Political observers in Bihar suggest that 
growing frustration could lead 20 or more of Paswan's 29 newly 
elected LJP MLAs to abandon him, most likely to join the NDA. 
In such a case, the JDU's Nitish Kumar would be expected become 
Bihar's next Chief Minister. 
 
6. (SBU)  COMMENT.  The permutations for a solution are 
manifold, but the bad blood between the leaders runs quite deep. 
 Paswan, so far at least, seems more determined to keep 
arch-rival Lalu out of power than to take power himself.  His 
elected members are unlikely to stay with him if he retains this 
intransigent position for very long.  However, Buta Singh is a 
Congress man and the Congress - having garnered barely ten MLAs 
at the ballot box -- may prefer to have one of their own 
governing, even by President's Rule.  This could provide 
Congress a platform on which to begin building from its very 
weak base in Bihar.  All of this suggests that a lot of 
back-room horse-trading may lie ahead.  The greatest likelihood 
is that an elected government will form within the next two 
months or so, but the possibility remains for a more extended 
period of President's Rule instead.  END COMMENT. 
 
SIBLEY