US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI1872

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001872 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, PGOV, PK, NP, IN, Kashmir, India-Nepal 
SUBJECT: HOME MINISTER UPBEAT ON KASHMIR, WORRIES OF 
POTENTIAL MAOIST SPILLOVER FROM NEPAL 
 
REF: NEW DELHI 1274 
 
Classified By: Ambassador David C. Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: In a March 9 meeting with the Ambassador, 
Home Minister Shivraj Patil credited Pakistan with reducing 
infiltration, called the law and order situation in the state 
"more comfortable," and expressed confidence that the first 
Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus would roll on schedule on April 7, 
despite the harsh winter, which had slowed preparatory work. 
The GOI had told President Musharraf that he would be welcome 
to visit India during the ongoing cricket series.  Patil 
downplayed the effects of the Maoist insurgency in Nepal on 
India, commenting that there has not been the spillover he 
expected, but expressed concern and the need to remain 
vigilant about the internal threat of leftist violence inside 
India.  End Summary. 
 
Kashmir 
------- 
 
2.  (C) In a discussion that focused primarily on trafficking 
in persons (septel), the Ambassador told the Home Minister 
that he expected Secretary Rice would be interested in Indian 
views on developments in Jammu and Kashmir during her 
upcoming visit to New Delhi and asked for Patil's assessment 
of trends there.  The Home Minister ascribed the significant 
decline in infiltration not only to the LOC fence, better 
anti-insurgency measures by India, and heavy snow which 
clogged mountain passes, but also to Pakistani efforts to 
reduce the flow of terrorists, commenting that "You have to 
give them credit."  The law and order situation had improved 
in part because of Pakistani actions, he stated. 
 
3.  (C) The problem with the terrorists was not their guns, 
Patil continued, but their grenades and improvised explosive 
devices (IEDs), as a result of which many civilians were 
killed and travel via road remained risky.  He expressed 
great satisfaction that the Kashmiris had braved terrorist 
threats and intimidation during the February municipal 
elections, turning out in large numbers and making them a 
great success.  This was further evidence of strong Kashmiri 
interest in how they are governed, the Minister stated. 
 
4.  (C) Patil expected the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus to roll 
on schedule on April 7, despite harsh winter weather that had 
hampered infrastructure improvements and other preparatory 
work.  The GOI was looking into opening several more roads 
(presumably Jammu-Sialkot, Kargil-Skardu, Poonch-Mirpur, and 
Lahore-Amritsar), but did not elaborate.  The number of 
delegations visiting each country has increased enormously, 
which is helping to keep the atmosphere for rapprochement 
positive.  The Home Minister added that New Delhi had also 
told Islamabad that President Musharraf was welcome in India 
for the Indo-Pak cricket series now underway. 
 
Nepal/Naxalite Nexus 
-------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Turning to the crisis in Nepal, the Ambassador noted 
that the US and India remain very close in their views and 
are consulting regularly.  He apprised Patil that the US had 
postponed a military/medical exercise (the JCET) in our 
ongoing effort to keep pressure on the King, and that there 
was no lethal assistance in the pipeline to the RNA for the 
next few months. 
 
6.  (C) Responding to a question about the impact of the 
Maoist insurgency in Nepal on India's internal security, 
Patil observed that insurgent groups in Nepal were 
communicating with groups here and elsewhere in the 
subcontinent, in Latin America and Africa, and that funds 
were crossing borders.  By dismissing the government, the 
King had removed the buffer between the Palace and the 
Maoists and created even greater problems for himself. 
Ordinary Nepalis were keeping quiet or saying things 
acceptable to the Maoists, but they did not back the 
insurgents.  Patil agreed that the RNA, by increasingly 
withdrawing into the Kathmandu Valley, had conceded territory 
to the Maoists. 
 
7.  (C) The situation was very complicated, Patil continued, 
and India was finding that when it attempted to be of 
assistance in one area, one problem would crop up, while if 
it tried another, it would face still other problems.  The 
GOI had increased its vigil on its borders, so that "those 
who do not believe in democracy do not cross over to India." 
 Whatever spillover there was into India, however, remained 
in small amounts, and was proceeding at a snail's pace. 
Patil professed not to know whether this was the "lull before 
the storm" or that the status quo would continue.  The 
situation in Bhutan and Assam had also not deteriorated as a 
result of Nepal, but India was keeping its fingers crossed. 
Given his responsibilities for internal security, however, he 
remained concerned about the internal threat of leftist 
violence inside India (Reftel). 
MULFORD