US embassy cable - 05HARARE384

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000384 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR BNEULING 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE, D. TEITELBAUM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, ZI, March 05 Elections, MDC 
SUBJECT: MDC CANDIDATES OPTIMISTIC 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Eric T. Schultz under Section 1. 
4 b/d 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  The Ambassador met February 23 with three 
MDC officials: sitting Ministers of Parliament Willias 
Madzimure and Job Sikhala who are defending their seats, and 
MDC candidate for Parliament Goodrich Chibaira.  The 
candidates were optimistic that the MDC would do well in the 
elections, especially given that political violence was much 
lower than in the past.  They offered various theories as to 
why President Mugabe had directed that the elections be 
non-violent, including international pressure, a desire to 
retire gracefully, or because he was falsely confident that 
ZANU-PF could win without violence.  The three MDC officials 
agreed that a government of national unity following the 
elections might provide a resolution to Zimbabwe,s crisis. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
 
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Less Political Violence 
------------ 
 
2. (C) Willias Madzimure and Job Sikhala are both incumbent 
MDC M.P.s in constituencies in Harare and are running in the 
March 31 election.  Goodrich Chibaira, also an MDC candidate 
in a Harare constituency, is a first-time candidate.  All 
three MDC officials reported continuing low levels of 
violence compared to 2000 and 2002.  There were some 
incidents.  Sikhala for instance said there had been some 
altercations between ZANU-PF and MDC supporters after one of 
the rallies in Harare and that the police had not arrested 
the ZANU-PF supporters who had inciteded the incidents. 
However, Sikhala and Madzimure confirmed that levels of 
violence were clearly lower this election. 
 
3. (C) Sikhala attributed the lack of violence to President 
Mugabe,s public statements that no political violence would 
be tolerated.  This marked a major change from the past, when 
Mugabe himself called for and incited violence.  Even lower 
levels of party and government structures were heeding the 
call for non-violence, albeit reluctantly.  Sikhala said the 
MDC leadership had barred officials from verbally attacking 
Mugabe personally and that Mugabe was also attacking MDC as 
an institution rather than individuals within the party. 
Madzimure also noted that in contrast with past elections, 
there was no military command center running the ZANU-PF 
campaign.  Sikhala added that Mugabe and Mujuru were 
themselves campaigning instead of using soldiers and war 
veterans to campaign.  Without Mugabe directing violence and 
with the reduced involvement of the military and war 
veterans, all three officials predicted there would be very 
little violence this time. 
 
---- 
But Why? 
---- 
 
4. (C) In response to the Ambassador,s question as to why 
there was less violence, Madzimure said he worried that 
Mugabe had some other plan for ensuring ZANU-PF supremacy, 
perhaps in the counting of the ballots, and that he knew he 
would not need to rely on violence.  He said Mugabe might 
also have been influenced by international pressure and by a 
desire to ensure that the elections were seen as legitimate. 
Mugabe knew that political violence might not work in 
ZANU-PF,s favor and that, if ZANU-PF must lose, it would be 
better to lose in a peaceful environment.  Sikhala suggested 
that Mugabe might even want the MDC to win because he had no 
clear successor in ZANU-PF and that the MDC would treat a 
retired Mugabe better than would members of a factionalized 
ZANU-PF with scores to settle.  Madzimure and Sikhala said 
another possibility was that Mugabe falsely believed that 
ZANU-PF would win the elections without violence because his 
advisors were lying to him about ZANU-PF,s prospects. 
Finally, both Madzimure and Sikhala suggested that Mugabe 
might be concerned with protecting his legacy and wanted a 
peaceful election before he stepped down. 
 
----- 
MDC Prospects 
----- 
5. (C) Madzimure and Sikhala both predicted the MDC would win 
with 60 seats or more out of 120 elected seats, due to 
voters, awareness that ZANU-PF had done nothing in five 
years to improve their daily lives.  They said that, with 
continued low levels of political violence, Zimbabweans would 
feel free to vote as they wished -- for the MDC.  Madzimure 
said that voters were most interested in better employment, 
pensions, health, and education, and knew that ZANU-PF did 
not care about those issues.  Sikhala added that ZANU-PF had 
won the last election by fraud but with more open elections 
this time, they would not win a majority of the elected seats 
or an overall two-thirds majority.  The MDC would retain its 
ability to block unilateral constitutional change and could 
force ZANU-PF to the negotiating table. 
National Unity Government? 
------------- 
 
6. (C) Madzimure said that a source of his within ZANU-PF had 
heard top party leaders discussing the possibility of 
negotiating a national government of unity with the MDC.  The 
MDC leadership was also quietly discussing this possibility, 
in particular as a means to a new constitution.  Sikhala said 
that some MDC supporters would not be happy with the idea of 
a power-sharing arrangement because they counted on the MDC 
to provide new ideas after years of ZANU-PF mismanagement of 
politics and the economy.  However, following a discussion of 
what the MDC might gain from a place in government, such as 
the ability to deliver services to constituents and the like, 
he embraced the idea along with his colleagues as a way 
forward that could resolve Zimbabwe,s crisis peacefully. 
Madzimure added that ZANU-PF leaders were willing to consider 
unity with the MDC due to deep divisions within ZANU-PF. 
There was a backlash against the Zezuru ethnic group to which 
Mugabe and Vice-President Joyce Mujuru belonged and an 
anti-Zezuru group was forming to counter a perceived attempt 
by Mugabe to fill all top leadership positions with Zezuru. 
 
Moyo,s Legacy? 
-------------- 
 
7. (C) Madzimure and Sikhala said ZANU-PF would not win 
Matabeleland without Jonathan Moyo because the Ndebele did 
not identify with John Nkomo and had no other emotional ties 
to ZANU-PF.  Sikhala said that Moyo was running as an 
independent solely as retribution against ZANU-PF because his 
candidacy would split the ZANU-PF vote and ensure that 
ZANU-PF candidate could not win. 
 
Outside Influence 
-------------- 
 
8. (C) All MDC candidates agreed that international pressure 
was an important factor in ZANU-PF,s decision to reduce the 
level of political violence.  They expressed appreciation for 
U.S. policy toward Zimbabwe but Sikhala said he thought 
Zimbabwe should not be compared with the other &outposts of 
tyranny," Most of which had never had elections.  Mugabe had 
always had elections, even if they were &done wrong.8 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9. (C) The lower levels of political violence thus far in the 
campaign period are significant and as we have said elsewhere 
may produce a surprise.  If the MDC wins at least 51 seats, 
it would retain its ability to block constitutional change. 
This could force ZANU-PF to negotiate with the MDC and might 
lead to calls, including especially from South Africa, for a 
government of national unity.  This was the first time we 
have heard MDC officials openly discuss such a prospect and 
it was interesting to see how quickly they convinced 
themselves that this could be a way forward after the 
election.  They could be right.  Civil society activists 
might accuse the MDC of selling out but if such a government 
led to real change, including paving the way for Mugabe,s 
departure, it might merit support. 
SCHULTZ