US embassy cable - 05OTTAWA741

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000741 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: CA, PGOV, PINR, PREL, Liberal Party, Conservative Party 
SUBJECT: LIBERAL PARTY CONVENTION WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR 
CONSERVATIVES TO TOP 
 
REF: (A) OTTAWA 640 (B) OTTAWA 696 (C) OTTAWA 713 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: The Liberal Party Convention finished on an 
upbeat note March 6, trumpeting the theme of "Promises Made - 
Promises Delivered" for three days.  The Liberals followed 
the model of successful American convention organizers by 
scripting an overwhelming endorsement of PM Martin,s 
leadership, keeping controversy outside the tent, and using 
big names to draw a crowd.  Of note, convention delegates 
voted 88% in favour of not holding a leadership convention, 
thereby ensuring that Martin will lead the party into the 
next election.  There was little of substance decided on the 
policy side of the convention, although there was animated 
discussion of a number of controversial issues such as 
marijuana, legalization of prostitution and gender/minority 
rights within the party.  The Liberal Party Convention will 
be a hard act to follow for the Conservatives, whose 
convention later in the month in Montreal will deal with more 
fundamental issues of party identity and values against a 
backdrop of consistently flat popularity.  End Summary 
 
WE ARE THE PARTY OF JOE CANADA 
------------------------------ 
 
2. (SBU) As late as last week, media commentators speculated 
that the Liberal Party Convention would be poorly attended 
and tense as candidates-in-waiting lobbied for support and 
Martin and Chrtien supporters squared off.  But for three 
days, the Liberals put on an excellent show, amidst a festive 
atmosphere flush with youthful enthusiasm.  Reports indicate 
that 2500 delegates attended when early predictions were for 
a maximum of 2000.  The Liberal message was clear -- &we are 
the party of mainstream Canada and we are capable of leading 
the country effectively.8  This message was conveyed through 
a skillful combination of keynote speakers, policy workshops, 
an accountability session with the cabinet, and a leadership 
review, all tightly scripted to show unity and avoid public 
controversy. 
 
MARTIN PASSES LEADERSHIP VOTE COMFORTABLY 
----------------------------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) A key piece of the convention was a leadership 
validation, in which 88% of delegates voted against holding a 
separate leadership convention, thus leaving PM Martin to 
lead the party into the next election.  The Prime Minister,s 
approval rating was better than predicted, but according to 
some observers it reflects a desire for party unity more than 
complete acceptance of Martin,s leadership, and they point 
out that his numbers are down from the 95% he had when he 
first won the party leadership. 
 
4. (SBU) There was, despite this show of support, a fair 
amount of speculation about who will one day succeed Martin, 
and while no candidates have announced their intention to try 
to displace the party leader in the near future, the media 
was still willing to speculate.  The following names were 
mentioned as potential candidates for a future leadership 
challenge -- MP Maurizio Bevilacqua, MP and former Minister 
Denis Coderre, Minister of Public Works Scott Brison, Foreign 
Minister Pierre Pettigrew, Minister of Immigration Joe Volpe, 
Ambassador Frank McKenna, former MP and leadership candidate 
John Manley, former MP Martin Cauchon, author Michael 
Ignatieff, and Liberal Party organizer Christy Clark. 
Conspicuous by their absence from the convention were 
high-profile Liberals such as John Manley, Sheila Copps, and 
Jean Chrtien, presumably to avert any controversy and keep 
the attention on Martin. 
 
POLICY ISSUES A SNOOZE 
---------------------- 
 
5. (SBU) The policy element of the convention was organized 
around thematic workshops in which resolutions were debated 
and selected to advance to the main convention floor, with 
some Priority Resolutions going directly to the general 
debate.  Most of the resolutions that made it to the floor 
were not bold statements about new or controversial policy, 
and this lends some credence to media complaints that the 
substance of the convention was simply boring.  Among the 
policy positions adopted were: 
 
--    expanding the definition of marriage to include same 
sex couples; 
--    a commitment to ensure clean, publicly managed drinking 
water in the developing world; 
--    meeting Canada,s Kyoto target; 
--    increased support for Canada,s peacekeeping 
initiatives; 
--    changes to employment insurance; and 
--    the development of a national child care program. 
 
Civil marriage caused a brief and heated debate but the 
debate over a resolution to mandate 50% participation of 
women in executive levels of the party and government was 
even more contentious. 
 
6. (SBU) Also of note, the Priority Resolution against 
Canadian participation in Ballistic Missile Defence was 
dropped.  Wendy Wright, an executive member of the Young 
Liberals of Canada, which sponsored the resolution, told 
POLFSN that this was because the Liberal government had 
already made this resolution a real policy so it was moot. 
Media commentators speculate, however, that they did it to 
avoid embarrassing debate with anti-American overtones on the 
convention floor.  Several delegates were visibly annoyed by 
the withdrawal of the resolution because they wanted the 
policy on the Liberal books for the record regardless of what 
the government decided earlier.  They suspect that the issue 
will return and they want their opposition firmly entrenched 
as official Liberal policy. 
 
YOUNG LIBERALS PROMINENT 
------------------------ 
 
7. (SBU) Of the various convention groupings, the Young 
Liberals of Canada stood out.  The Young Liberals 
demonstrated high levels of technical organization and 
enthusiasm while actively advancing their left of center 
agenda.  They functioned as the largest single organized 
group at the convention, which was most clear in the Justice 
and Constitutional workshop where they successfully sponsored 
resolutions on legalizing marijuana and sex worker rights. 
Using cell-phones and text-messaging technology the YLC let 
their members know when their resolutions were up for debate 
and vote, and vehemently defended their legalization of 
marijuana resolution, only to abandon it at the priority 
stage in favour of a resolution on sex workers rights. 
 
8. (SBU) Comment: The efforts by party organizers and leaders 
to convey the appearance of unity and enthusiasm, regardless 
of the problems that lie under the surface, have prompted 
some observers to call the gathering a pre-election 
convention, following on the heels of a pre-election budget 
(reftel A).  While Martin has reiterated that he is not 
seeking an election, the endorsement of his leadership now 
gives him a mandate to lead the party into a second election, 
whenever it occurs.  Meanwhile the Conservatives did not 
receive the bounce they were hoping for from a Liberal 
meltdown, and are faced with the difficult job of outshining 
the Liberals when they hold their first ever policy 
convention in Montreal March 17-19.  The PM expressed more 
reality than spin when he said of his Conservative foes:  &I 
don't envy them, first they,ve got to figure out who they 
are and what they stand for, and once they figure out what 
they stand for, they,ve got to figure out how to conceal it 
from the Canadian people.8  There was also some value in 
going first, and the Liberals simply had an easier product to 
sell, which they did effectively.  End Comment 
 
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CELLUCCI