US embassy cable - 05PARIS1573

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001573 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, FR, YI, RU 
SUBJECT: (C) MFA OFFICIAL RETHINKS PUTIN'S ABILITIES, URGES 
DISCRETION ON OPTIONS FOR KOSOVO 
 
REF: A. PARIS 1527 
 
     B. PARIS 1528 
     C. 2/22 KUJAWINSKI-ALLEGRONE E-MAIL 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR JOSIAH ROSENBLATT, FOR REAS 
ONS 1.4 B/D 
 
1. (C) Summary and comment: Jean-Francois Terral, 
A/S-equivalent for Russia, the former Soviet space, and the 
Balkans, discussed a full range of related issues March 8 
with POL M/C, with a particular focus on Russia and Kosovo. 
On Russia, Terral appeared more positive than expected on 
relations with the EU, and more negative than expected on 
President Putin and domestic Russian issues.  Regarding 
Kosovo, he urged that Contact Group members state publicly 
that all options except a return to the past are on the 
table, in order to ensure Serb participation.  He emphasized, 
though, that this was a question of tactics, and that France 
fully understood the direction the Quint was taking on 
Kosovo.  Discussions on the ICTY indictment of Ramush 
Haradinaj and the March 18 France-Germany-Russia-Spain 
meeting are reported at reftels A and B, respectively.  End 
summary and comment. 
 
FRENCH ANALYSIS OF RUSSIA 
 
2. (C) Terral began discussion of Russia by stating that 
French and American analyses of Russia are not very 
different, notwithstanding disagreements on nuances.  The 
Russian transition to democracy was a very long process, he 
said, and Russia was starting from very far back. 
Furthermore, the Russian people were more interested in 
personal security and their country's influence than 
democratization.  Russians believe their country is in a 
position of weakness internationally, an opinion that has 
only deepened following the events in Beslan and Ukraine. 
France's Russia specialists discuss Russia regularly with 
counterparts in Germany and the UK, said Terral, and would 
like to engage in similar conversations with the U.S.  Terral 
said he raised the idea of a U.S.-France conference on Russia 
in May with the MFA's Policy Planning-equivalent, and he 
hoped that such exchanges might occur regularly. 
 
3. (C) Turning to domestic events in Russia, Terral said 
France was concerned that Putin was becoming increasingly 
authoritarian and paradoxically, that his power was at the 
same time weak and ineffective.  Initially, France had not 
been overly uncomfortable with the Yukos affair, said Terral, 
because the French are sympathetic to the idea that the state 
should exercise control over its natural resources.  As an 
aside, though, Terral said the latest moves by the Russian 
government to dismantle Yukos were becoming less 
comprehensible, and smacked of "irrationality."  Terral said 
that France, with its history of strong central control over 
its regions, also understood Putin's decision to appoint 
regional governors instead of submitting them to elections. 
Despite this tendency to "understand" recent Russian actions, 
French policymakers have become "a bit hesitant" regarding 
their analyses since Putin's handling of Beslan and the 
Ukraine election, said Terral.  With regard to Ukraine, the 
Russians "acted like imbeciles."  In the Caucasus, Russia is 
"behaving very badly."  Although the French, said Terral, do 
not see an alternative to Putin, they have begun to wonder 
whether Putin is capable of managing his responsibilities. 
(Comment: The clear sense given by Terral that the French 
establishment was shocked by Putin's recent missteps and is 
rethinking their confidence in his abilities was echoed March 
9, when Poloff attended a conference on Russia sponsored by a 
prominent think tank with very close ties to the GOF.  The 
packed hall, filled with generals, prefects and other 
government elites, asked the same types of questions that 
Terral raised, specifically mentioning Russian blundering in 
Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.  End comment) 
 
4. (C) Despite concerns that Putin and his government were 
beginning to act irrationally, Terral said he was "not 
fundamentally pessimistic" regarding Russia-EU relations. 
The French were pleased that the Russians had accepted the 
right of the EU to discuss common concerns involving states 
that border Russia and the EU.  On Chechnya, the French 
believed that Russia was moving in the right direction with 
the acknowledgment that the conflict there was not purely a 
security issue.  Most important for Russia-EU relations, said 
Terral, was conclusion of negotiations on the "four spaces" 
of cooperation before the May 10 Russia-EU summit.  The 
"education/culture" space was completed, the "economic" space 
was nearly completed, the "justice/interior" space still had 
significant problems, and the most problematic remained the 
"external security" space, said Terral. 
 
5. (C) POL M/C asked Terral for President Chirac's analysis 
of Russia, especially following the dinner between Presidents 
Bush and Chirac, where Chirac advanced a number of differing 
points regarding Russia and Ukraine.  Terral said it was no 
secret that Chirac cultivated a very close relationship with 
 
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Putin and was especially focused on Russia as the 
overwhelming influence in the former Soviet space. 
Furthermore, said Terral, Chirac does not follow issues in 
the region on a day-to-day basis, and he perhaps saw certain 
aspects of Ukraine's evolution that would prove problematic 
for Russia.  Terral added that Chirac does not inform the MFA 
of his thinking on Russia.  (Comment: As discussed reftel C, 
Chirac tends to see events in the former Soviet space through 
a Russia-centric lens, as Terral implied.  The French 
president's overarching goal remains the cultivation of close 
relations with Russia, and more specifically, with Putin. 
This focus tends to blur Chirac's vision when looking at any 
other countries in the former Soviet space.  Prominent French 
researcher on Russia and the former Soviet space Anne de 
Tinguy made a similar point during the March 9 conference, 
saying that historically, France focuses on Russia, and the 
"absence" of a French policy on Ukraine, for example, has 
been a great loss, especially in view of recent events.  End 
comment.) 
 
TERRAL URGES PUBLIC DISCRETION ON OPTIONS FOR KOSOVO 
6. (S) Terral began discussion of Kosovo by noting that, in 
the Quint, the UK, the U.S. and Germany appear to have 
accelerated their thinking regarding final status options. 
He said France firmly believed in "standards before status" 
and well understood that discussion was moving towards 
"conditional independence" for Kosovo.  France is not 
standing in the way of that outcome.  Nevertheless, he 
cautioned that, politically and symbolically, it was of vital 
importance to state publicly that all options regarding 
Kosovo's future are on the table, save only a return to the 
past.  Given Serbia's historic role as the "pillar" of the 
region, and its particular role regarding Kosovo, the 
international community "must get the Serbs to the table," 
Terral said.  The Serbs feel "beaten" and this, coupled with 
their historical grievances, make their inclusion all the 
more important.  Dangling EU membership to reward Serb 
behavior was not a "magic potion," said Terral.  Many Serbs 
are more focused on the past than on the future, given that 
the international community could not overly pressure the 
Serbs and expect success in Kosovo. 
 
7. (C) Regarding next steps, Terral said he understood USG 
reluctance to seize the UN Security Council on Kosovo, but 
that such a move was necessary to "keep the Russians with 
us."  If Russia didn't work with the Contact Group, said 
Terral, it would work against it.  When asked for Chirac's 
opinion on Kosovo, Terral reiterated what he had said before; 
namely, that Chirac often did not make his opinions known to 
the MFA.  However, the MFA had received signs from the 
Presidency to go slow on final status discussions, and to 
make sure that all options remained on the table.  That being 
said, Terral said Chirac had not focused on Kosovo.  However, 
Terral noted that Kosovo was moving to the front burner of 
intra-EU and French inter-agency discussions. 
Leach