US embassy cable - 05KUWAIT991

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 000991 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/ARPI AND T 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KWMN, PARM, LE, KU, WOMEN'S POLITICAL RIGHTS, NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
SUBJECT: KUWAITI MP SAYS WOMEN WILL VOTE, ARTICLE 98 TO 
PASS, LEBANON'S HEZBOLLAH IN TROUBLE 
 
REF: KUWAIT 944 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Kuwaiti MP Mohammed Jassem Al-Sagr, chair of 
the Foreign Affairs Committee, expressed his tempered 
optimism that the National Assembly will approve the GOK's 
bill allowing women's suffrage. He added, however, that the 
GOK is nervous to pressure undecided MPs. Al-Sagr also 
predicted that Article 98 will pass out of his committee 
during a vote on March 12. On Lebanon, Al-Sagr said that the 
death of Rafiq Hariri served as the greatest blow to 
Hezbollah Secretary-General Nasrallah as Hariri had lobbied 
the international community discreetly to keep the terrorist 
moniker off the militia cum political party. Al-Sagr also 
shared his support for the GOK's forgiveness of outstanding 
Iraq debt. End summary. 
 
Women Will Gain Vote by Narrow Margin 
------------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Al-Sagr, a staunch supporter of Kuwaiti women's right 
to vote (reftel), stated during a visit March 9 meeting with 
the Ambassador that a bill granting voting rights "will pass, 
maybe by a couple of votes, but it will pass." If the GOK 
were more aggressive in its efforts, he added, the bill could 
pass by ten votes. Al-Sagr lamented that the GOK is hesitant 
to pressure eight to ten undeclared MPs whose seats the 
Islamists could win in the next elections if the MPs are 
viewed as vocal women's rights proponents. The draft bill 
will fail "unanimously" when the Interior and Defense 
Committee, which is "full of Bedouins and Islamists," votes 
on the matter, but that should not affect its chances before 
a full Assembly vote, according to Al-Sagr. (Note: 
Parliamentary committees only play a consultative role; the 
fate of any legislation lies with the full Assembly. End 
note.) 
 
3. (C) When Ambassador asked about a timeline, Al-Sagr did 
not have a definitive answer but warned that the longer the 
vote takes, the more time the Islamists will have for their 
counter-campaign. Al-Sagr said the vote should happen within 
three to six weeks, just in time for the proposed visit by 
Prime Minister Shaykh Sabah Al-Sabah to Washington. If the 
bill fails, Al-Sagr said "I don't think (the PM) can go if he 
doesn't get the vote." He also urged the Embassy to maintain 
a low profile on the subject as the U.S. position is widely 
known, and Islamists would portray U.S. support as 
interference. 
 
Article 98 Closer to Ratification 
--------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Article 98 remains with Al-Sagr's Foreign Affairs 
Committee, which is to vote on it March 12 as long as there 
are no surprises. He will not place the item on the 
Committee's agenda in advance for fear of Islamist rebuke. 
Al-Sagr added: "If I see a problem, I will pull it, but so 
far so good." The full Assembly will need to ratify Article 
98 following Committee action. 
 
Hezbollah in Precarious Position 
-------------------------------- 
 
5. (C) According to the MP, the greatest loser after Rafiq 
Hariri's death is Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah whom Al-Sagr 
described as charismatic and smart. According to Al-Sagr, 
Hariri quietly lobbied the international community to avoid 
labeling Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. With Hariri 
gone, Hezbollah is in need of Syria, one of its two patron 
countries, now more than ever. Should UN resolution 1559 be 
implemented, Al-Sagr added, not only would Syrian forces 
withdraw from Lebanon, but Hezbollah would also be forced to 
disarm its militia. It could just become a political force 
post-disarmament, but "they do not think in those terms," he 
said. Al-Sagr was planning to travel to Damascus to meet 
Syrian President Bashar Al-Asad, whom Al-Sagr believes is 
controlled by the "old guard," but has canceled his trip. If 
the Syrians fail to withdraw all of their forces from 
Lebanon, he predicted the Syrian regime would collapse with 
or without Al-Asad. As for the Lebanese, they are smart 
people who have had enough of wars, he added. The big 
question, however, is whether Syria will cause problems in 
Lebanon. 
 
Time to Forgive Iraqi Debt 
-------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Al-Sagr believes the GOK must deal with the new Iraq. 
Saddam is gone; the Iraq people are in control. It is now 
time to forgive outstanding funds that Iraq. His committee 
will take up the matter when the Government proposes it. 
Al-Sagr also mentioned that he was upset that Ayatollah 
Sistani's candidate, Ibrahim Jaafari, won January's Iraqi 
elections as he is influenced by Iran. Al-Sagr would have 
preferred current Prime Minister Iyad Allawi. 
LEBARON