US embassy cable - 05PARIS1559

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001559 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY (FRANK); BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; 
AF/PA; EUR/WE (DEBORAH MENNUTI)/P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA 
(BERBENA); INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE 
HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA 
(ANN LUZZATO); USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA; 
BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - GREATER MIDDLE EAST - IRAQ - 
LEBANON - SYRIA 
PARIS - WEDNESDAY, MARCH 09, 2005 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
GREATER MIDDLE EAST - IRAQ - LEBANON - SYRIA 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
FRONT PAGES AND EDITORIALS ARE FOR THE MOST PART DEVOTED TO 
DOMESTIC SOCIAL ISSUES SUCH AS DEMONSTRATIONS BY RESEARCHERS 
TODAY AND STRIKES SCHEDULED FOR TOMORROW. LEFT-OF-CENTER LE 
MONDE IS THE EXCEPTION, WITH THE HEADLINE: "THE MIDDLE EAST IS 
CHANGING: SHOULD WE THANK BUSH?" THE UNSIGNED EDITORIAL TITLED 
"ARAB SPRINGTIME" GRANTS PRESIDENT BUSH'S POLICY PARTIAL 
CREDIT FOR THIS CHANGE. IN HER ANALYSIS, CLAIRE TREAN 
DESCRIBES PARIS'S STANCE VIS-A-VIS THESE CHANGES: "FOR PARIS, 
THE WAR IN IRAQ IS NOT THE DETONATOR OF THIS VIRTUOUS CHAIN OF 
EVENTS." (SEE PART C) 
 
THE SITUATION IN LEBANON IS ALSO A MAJOR STORY. MOST 
COMMENTATORS NOTE THE SUCCESS OF YESTERDAY'S HEZBOLLAH-LED 
DEMONSTRATION. "THIS HUGE DEMONSTRATION PROVES THAT PRO-SYRIAN 
MOVEMENTS ARE VERY WELL ORGANIZED. IT ALSO PROVES HEZBOLLAH'S 
NEWLY ACQUIRED CLOUT." (THOMAS DE ROCHECHOUART IN FRANCE SOIR) 
IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO, COMMENTATOR ALEXANDRE ADLER 
ANALYZES THE CHANGES OPERATING IN LEBANON AND ASKS: "IS IT NOT 
A FACT THAT THE MIDDLE EAST IS EXPERIENCING THE PLEASURE OF 
VIRTUOUS CIRCLES?" (SEE PART C) 
 
SEVERAL REPORTS NOTE JOHN BOLTON'S NOMINATION AS AMBASSADOR TO 
THE UN. FOR LE FIGARO, "THE NOMINATION MARKS THE LIMITATIONS 
OF GEORGE BUSH'S MULTILATERALISM." LE MONDE QUOTES JOHN 
KERRY'S REACTION, WHILE LIBERATION TITLES ITS REPORT: "BOLTON, 
AN AMERICAN HAWK FOR THE UN." 
 
THE ASSASSINATION OF ASLAN MASKHADOV IS WIDELY REPORTED AND 
NOTED AS "AN IMMENSE VICTORY FOR PUTIN." BUT COMMENTATORS WARN 
AGAINST "A NEW CYCLE OF VIOLENCE IN THE REGION." 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
GREATER MIDDLE EAST - IRAQ - LEBANON - SYRIA 
 
"ARAB SPRINGTIME" 
LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE IN ITS UNSIGNED EDITORIAL (03/09): 
"EVENTS THESE LAST FEW WEEKS IN THE MIDDLE EAST ARE PROVING 
WRONG TWO PREVIOUS ANALYSES: FIRST, THE ONE SUPPORTING A 
`SHOCK BETWEEN CIVILIZATIONS' BECAUSE THE ARAB WORLD WAS 
DEEMED IMPERVIOUS TO DEMOCRATIC CHANGE.; THE SECOND, PUT FORTH 
BY POLITICIANS CLAIMING TO BE `REALISTS' AND WHO CONTINUED TO 
SUPPORT AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES, FOR THE SAME REASONS INVOKED BY 
THE PROPONENTS OF A `SHOCK BETWEEN CIVILIZATIONS...' A NUMBER 
OF EVENTS (ELECTIONS IN IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN, PALESTINE.) ARE ALL 
SIGNS THAT THE PEOPLE OF THE MIDDLE EAST WANT TO TAKE THEIR 
DESTINY IN HAND. WHILE IT BEHOOVES US TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS, THE 
FACT IS THAT THIS `ARAB SPRINGTIME' MUST BE ENCOURAGED. 
PRESIDENT BUSH'S MERIT LIES IN THAT HE HELD TO THIS APPROACH 
IMMEDIATELY AFTER 9/11. HE DEVELOPED THE IDEA THAT THE PEOPLE 
IN THE ARAB MUSLIM WORLD HAD THE RIGHT TO FREEDOM, DEMOCRACY 
AND PROSPERITY. HE DID NOT SAY THIS ONLY BECAUSE HE IS 
ALTRUISTIC, BUT BECAUSE HE IS CONVINCED THAT SUCH AN EVOLUTION 
IS IN THE BEST U.S. INTEREST. MUST WE THEN SAY THAT BUSH AND 
HIS NEO-CONS CAN TAKE CREDIT FOR EVERYTHING THAT IS HAPPENING 
IN THE MIDDLE EAST? CERTAINLY NOT. NEVERTHELESS, THE 
EUROPEANS, WHO LOOKED ON THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST PLAN WITH 
MISTRUST, CANNOT LEAVE TO THE AMERICANS THE MONOPOLY OF 
DEMOCRATIC RHETORIC. WHILE THE EUROPEANS ARE RIGHT TO SAY THAT 
WITHOUT A SOLUTION TO THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT THERE CAN BE NO 
LASTING MODERNIZATION AND DEMOCRATIZATION, IT WOULD BE A 
MISTAKE TO MAKE IT A CONDITIONAL PREAMBLE. THE TWO MUST GO 
HAND IN HAND." 
"FRANCE REFUTES THE `DOMINO THEORY'" 
CLAIRE TREAN IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE (03/09): "FRENCH 
LEADERS NATURALLY DO NOT SHARE THE IDEA THAT THE WIND OF 
CHANGE BLOWING IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS EXCLUSIVELY DUE TO 
PRESIDENT BUSH'S POLICY. NO ONE IN PARIS DENIES THE INFLUENCE 
WHICH WASHINGTON HAS OVER THE REGION, OR THE PRESSURE ITS 
MILITARY PRESENCE IN IRAQ CAN HAVE ON OTHERS. BUT THE IDEA 
THAT THE WAR IN IRAQ WAS THE DETONATOR OF A VIRTUOUS CHAIN 
REACTION OF EVENTS, IS CATEGORICALLY REFUTED." 
 
"CLARIFICATION ON LEBANON" 
ALEXANDRE ADLER IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (03/09): "IN THE 
SPACE OF A WEEK, THINGS HAVE BECOME MUCH CLEARER, NOT ONLY IN 
LEBANON BUT IN THE MIDDLE EAST IN GENERAL. THE MOST CLEAR-CUT 
DECISION IS THE IRREVERSIBLE ONE TAKEN BY SYRIA TO EVACUATE 
LEBANON. IN SPITE OF ASSAD'S TACTICS OF A PULLOUT IN TWO 
PHASES. IN EFFECT, LEBANON IS TRULY FREE TO ORGANIZE 
DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS, AFTER IRAQ AND PALESTINE. ONE OTHER 
IMPORTANT FACTOR IS THAT IRAN, THE NEW REGIONAL HEGEMONY, IS 
NOT REALLY OPPOSED TO LEBANON'S INDEPENDENCE. UN RESOLUTION 
1559 INCLUDES NOT ONLY SYRIA'S WITHDRAWAL FROM LEBANON, IT 
DEMANDS THE DISARMING OF HEZBOLLAH. BUT WHY CHANGE APPROACHES, 
ONE FOR THE PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES, ANOTHER FOR LEBANON? WHY 
NOT THE SAME STEP-BY-STEP POLICY FOR BOTH: FIRST TRULY FREE 
ELECTIONS THAT WILL ERADICATE SYRIA'S SUPPORTERS, AND LATER, 
MUCH LATER, DISARMING HEZBOLLAH COMPLETELY." LEACH