US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI997

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000997 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, TW 
SUBJECT: KMT LEADERSHIP RACE TAKES SHAPE 
 
REF: TAIPEI 00632 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: The KMT will announce the rules for its 
chairman race and set May 28 as the election day at the March 
16 Central Standing Committee meeting.  While most observers 
expect KMT Chairman Lien Chan to resign from his position to 
allow for generational change in the party leadership, Lien's 
vague statements have prompted other observers to claim that 
he will not resign.  Supporters of Taipei City Mayor Ma 
Ying-jeou told AIT that Ma was deliberating keeping low 
profile, confident that he was ahead in the opinion polls. 
While Legislative Yuan (LY) President Wang Jin-pyng has yet 
to announce his candidacy for the position, KMT insiders 
expect Wang to declare soon.  Many KMT members believe that 
while Ma is the party's best hope for success in the 2008 
presidential race, he might not necessarily be the ideal 
party chairman.  How Ma runs his chairman campaign in next 
few months will determine whether his election as KMT 
chairman results in a divided Pan-Blue in the immediate 
aftermath of his ascension.  End Summary. 
 
KMT Slowly Sets Election Timetable 
---------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Local media reported March 8 that the KMT will 
finalize its chairman election timetable during the Central 
Standing Committee (CSC) meeting on March 16.  The KMT is set 
to announce on March 21 an election for the chairman 
position, finalize on April 28 all registered candidates, and 
hold the vote on May 28.  KMT Overseas Affairs Director Ho 
Szu-yin told AIT that since Taipei City Mayor Ma's February 
14 candidacy announcement, the KMT Organizational Development 
Committee has been meeting busily trying to organize the 
election according to the party charter.  Ho said this will 
be the first real chairman election in KMT history and no one 
quite knows how it will play out. 
 
Lien: Replaying the Same Message 
-------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) While Ma and his most likely rival for the chairman 
position, LY President Wang Jin-pyng, continue to prepare 
their campaigns, some political observers question whether 
Chairman Lien Chan will actually step down.  Lien remains 
vague about his plans.  Prior to Ma's announcement, Lien had 
made a number of statements encouraging generational change 
in the KMT leadership.  Upon his return from his European 
vacation, Lien met with the KMT LY caucus and renewed his 
commitment to encourage new blood taking charge of the party. 
 However, Lien has not definitively stated his intention to 
depart. 
 
Recasting Ma's Image 
-------------------- 
 
4. (C) Since declaring himself a candidate, Ma has kept a low 
profile, and he has even made some remarks that have led 
political observers to question his commitment to stay in the 
race.  Two days after declaring his intention to seek the 
job, Ma stated that he would withdraw from the chairman race 
should his candidacy result in dividing the party.  Ma's 
aides, however, assured AIT that this statement was a only 
show of humility to the KMT party members and that Ma intends 
to remain in the race.  Ma spokesman Jack Yu told AIT that in 
light of media polls currently showing Ma leading over both 
current Chairman Lien Chan and Legislative Yuan President 
Wang Jin-pyng, it is important that Ma adopt a humble posture 
and remain low key.  Defending Ma against critics who called 
him an upstart, Lai Shyh-bao, KMT/New Party Legislator and 
longtime Ma advisor, pointed out to AIT that Ma had already 
shown proper respect to Lien by waiting until Lien had called 
for leadership change twice before making his announcement. 
 
5. (C) Ironically, until recently, both Ma's supporters and 
detractors were criticizing Ma for being too timid and 
unambitious.  KMT Legislator Shyu Jong-Shyong told AIT that 
he is constantly worried that because Ma was too polite he 
would allow events to overtake him.  Jack Yu said that before 
entering the chairman race Ma knew that his greatest weakness 
was the public perception that he was gutless.  In an attempt 
to counter that perception, Yu said, Ma's advisors had urged 
him not to delay his announcement until Lien's return from 
Europe. 
 
6. (C) Equally ironic for many political insiders, Ma 
announced his intention to seek the KMT chairmanship exactly 
two years from the date Lien and People First Party (PFP) 
Chairman James Soong had announced the KMT-PFP alliance.  Yu 
asserted that it was a coincidence.  Whether or not Yu is 
correct, many observers here see the "coincidence" as a 
pointed reminder of Ma and Soong's mutual antagonism. 
 
Divided Loyalties 
----------------- 
 
7. (C)  Ma's presumptive rival for the chairman position, 
Wang Jin-pyng, has yet to declare himself a candidate.  Wang 
has indicated his interest in being KMT chairman only 
indirectly, saying most recently that he would run for 
chairman if Lien decided not to seek reelection.  While 
Wang's coyness has prompted several observers to predict that 
Wang would not join the race, most KMT officials say that it 
is only a matter of time. 
8. (C) The potential for a Ma-Wang match-up has already 
started to divide the KMT. James Chen (Chien-chih), leader of 
the bentupai (ethnic Taiwanese faction) who has been 
mentioned as a possible Secretary General in a Ma-led KMT, 
told AIT that he said flatly to Wang that he intends to 
support Ma as the person who is most determined to be 
chairman.  However, Ma might need more than guts and ambition 
to win the support of his party members.  Chen pointed out 
that while the leadership of the KMT are still predominantly 
Mainlanders, the majority of the party and its supporters are 
ethnic Taiwanese.  While many KMT members hail Ma as the best 
hope for meaningful party reform that will lead to electoral 
success, they are still painfully cognizant that Ma is a 
Mainlander.  Chen told Ma that he will have to shed his 
Mainlander advisors if he really wants to be president.  Alex 
Tsai, an ethnic Taiwanese KMT Legislator from Taipei City, 
 
SIPDIS 
told AIT that he was supporting Ma.  However, his supporters 
expect him to "pay the appropriate respect" to Wang, who is 
still the ultimate symbol of the bentupai. 
 
9. (C) Many KMT insiders have told AIT that they believe Wang 
would make a better party chairman, while Ma would be a 
better presidential candidate in 2008.  James Chen advised 
Wang that he should defuse that debate by stating clearly 
that he is determined to be an effective chairman, without 
making references to 2008.  Others, like KMT Legislator Lee 
Chuan-chiao, have been campaigning for U.S.-style system in 
which the party chairman is not automatically the leading 
candidate for presidential candidate. 
 
Whither the Pan-Blue? 
--------------------- 
 
10. (C) Another complication in the KMT leadership question 
is the party's deteriorating relations with James Soong and 
the PFP.  Whereas insiders had previously whispered about 
Soong's dislike of Ma, PFP members are now openly talking 
about it.  Moreover, PFP Legislator Diane Lee (Ching-an) told 
AIT that it is not just Soong who dislikes Ma, almost all PFP 
legislators and officials feel the same way.  All the PFP 
members who have spoken recently to AIT say that they believe 
Wang is the better candidate for KMT chairman.  James Chen 
acknowledged to AIT that many KMT members fear that a Ma-led 
KMT would be detrimental for Pan-Blue unity, and that this 
fear may be Wang's best hope of winning a majority.  In the 
same breath, however, Chen asserted that Ma is popular among 
rank and file PFP supporters, who have recently been angry 
with the party because of James Soong's meeting with Chen 
Shui-bian. 
 
Comment: The Dreaded Debated Ahead 
---------------------------------- 
 
11. (C) The long-anticipated Ma-Wang showdown appears finally 
to be taking shape.  The charismatic Ma would appear to have 
the edge in a pure popularity poll, but his fight for the 
chairman seat will be far from easy.  Many KMT insiders, even 
those who called themselves Ma supporters, believe Ma should 
be the 2008 Pan-Blue presidential candidate but not 
necessarily the party chairman.  These people believe that 
the KMT chairman should be someone who can build coalitions, 
resolve tensions, and achieve consensus, and that Ma does not 
have those abilities.  The KMT old guard and the PFP would 
prefer a Wang-led KMT precisely because they believe he has 
the skills necessary to hold the Pan-Blue alliance together. 
Ma might ultimately be able to unite the Pan-Blue voter bases 
for his 2008 presidential bid.  However, Ma must first be 
able to convince his party that his election as KMT chairman 
would not result in a divided Pan-Blue in the immediate 
aftermath of his ascension. 
PAAL