US embassy cable - 02ABUJA1324

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001324 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958:DECL: 04/03/12 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA -- OBASANJO WILL RUN IN 2003 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY DCM ANDREWS. REASONS 1.5 (D). 
 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: President Obasanjo April 25 announced 
he would seek reelection in 2003 under the PDP banner. 
Before a throng of several thousand people, comprised 
mainly of PDP partisans drawn from near and far but 
including curiosity seekers and a smattering of Abuja 
denizens with nothing better to do, Obasanjo said he 
was offering himself to Nigerians for a second term. 
Obasanjo's speech was televised live and broadcast by 
radio. End Summary. 
 
 
2. (U) The cavernous International Conference Center 
was "jam packed," with scores of people relegated to 
sharing seats and many others left to stand where they 
could, sources tell us. People crowded the stairways 
and packed themselves elbow to elbow into the spacious 
lobby, using whatever they could to fan themselves in a 
hopeless effort to fight off the heat generated by this 
human congestion. A huge crowd milled outside the 
building, hoping for a glance at the large screens 
inside the lobby that were depicting the proceedings to 
those not lucky or important enough to have won seats 
inside the main hall.  Despite the crammed quarters, 
the mood was celebratory, bordering on "jovial" with 
singers and cultural dance troupes from different parts 
of the country plying their craft. 
 
 
3. (C) This event was the predicted denouement to weeks 
of feverish activity by Obasanjo's campaign 
strategists, headed by Works Minister Tony Anenih, to 
secure Obasanjo's support base within the party prior 
to the President going public with his intentions. The 
strategy had been to cajole or arm-twist as many 
elected PDP officials as possible to signal their 
support for Obasanjo before the grand finale. That 
strategy also involved giving a media spin to meetings 
Obasanjo held with PDP notables by characterizing these 
sessions as manifestations of support for the 
President's reelection. While PDP maverick and former 
Kano Governor Abubakar Rimi announced his candidacy and 
opposition to Obasanjo months ago, the President's 
political machine discounts Rimi as a hollow threat. No 
other credible candidate has emerged within the PDP 
yet, and this rally will make it far more difficult for 
one to do so. Obasanjo's strategists believe they 
control the party apparatus and thus can virtually 
assure Obasanjo's re-nomination. That the rally was 
organized by an ad hoc "Committee of Friends" comprised 
of Governors, Cabinet Ministers and many National 
Assembly members, reinforces the perception that 
Obasanjo's team hold the reins of the party's 
machinery. 
 
 
4. (U) Obasanjo spoke for roughly 45 minutes.  After 
stating that he would run in 2003, Obasanjo's delivery 
was interrupted by loud applause.  Evidently enjoying 
the decibel increase, Obasanjo twice repeated his 
statement with both iterations prompting energetic 
cheering. In an attempt to draw a distinction between 
2003 and the 1999 election, which many people 
complained was orchestrated by a small circle among the 
political elite, Obasanjo told the friendly gathering 
that he would make himself accessible to the people in 
the upcoming campaign. 
 
 
5. (U) While stating he would make his break with the 
past campaign, Obasanjo advised the people against 
breaking with the past three years of his governance. 
The overall theme of his speech and other statements at 
the event was continuity in government. While alluding 
that mistakes might have been made, Obasanjo and the 
others who took the podium exhorted the crowd to stay 
the course to promote stability. People in audience 
were heard echoing, "let the legacy continue." 
Consistent with previous statements that he was waiting 
for heavenly counsel before making a decision on 2003, 
Obasanjo began singing a Christian hymn as his 
peroration to what was inherently a most political of 
speeches. 
 
 
6. (C) During a brief meeting with Ambassador Jeter the 
day before, NSA Aliyu Mohammed had intimated that the 
rally was organized not only as a vehicle for Obasanjo 
to make his statement but also as a show of intra-party 
support.  Mohammed added that the rally was the 
beginning of an intensive two days of glad-handing and 
meetings between Obasanjo and myriad party notables, 
especially elected officials.  The clear implication 
was that the President would try to press the flesh and 
show charm to ensure the officials left Abuja with 
Obasanjo on their minds in a positive way. 
 
 
7. (C) House Speaker Ghali Na'Abba was conspicuously 
absent from the event although listed on the program. 
Na'Abba has been attempting to undermine Obasanjo for 
months. Mohammed Fadlallah, an influential Kano 
businessman, informed us that Na'Abba recently had 
confided his presidential ambitions to Fadlallah. 
Na'Abba avoided the event because his presence would 
have been seen as an endorsement. 
 
 
8.  (C) But now, Na'Abba and other PDP malcontents who 
have agitated against Obasanjo face a decision more 
profound than absenting themselves from Obasanjo's 
political self-christening. They will have to decide 
whether to formally challenge Obasanjo for the PDP 
nomination, or encourage others to do so.  Na'Abba 
faces special challenges. The PDP reportedly has 
decided to adopt "A4" style primaries.  A contestant 
for a seat in the House of Representatives must first 
win his ward and then his local government area before 
being considered.  Na'Abba has managed to annoy not 
only State House in Abuja, but also Government House in 
Kano.  Both will doubtless endeavor to stop his renewed 
candidacy during the primaries.  Although just as 
stubborn as Obasanjo, Na'Abba may decide to cut a deal 
to preserve his seat (if not the Speakership) and board 
Obasanjo's train. 
 
 
9. (C) Meanwhile, newspapers report the leadership of 
Arewa Consultative Forum is actively reviewing the 
names of over a dozen Northern political figures, 
including former Heads of State Buhari and Babangida as 
well as Speaker Na'Abba, in attempt to arrive at a 
consensus Northern candidate to oppose Obasanjo. Now 
that Obasanjo has announced formally, Arewa's efforts 
will take on greater urgency and generate increased 
media attention as well as speculation.  Arewa is not 
likely to challenge Obasanjo within the PDP; use of the 
APP or one of the new parties as its vehicle is more 
likely. 
 
 
10. (C) While some of his opponents may have hoped 
against hope that Obasanjo would not run, he ended up 
doing the expected. He will press forward with the 
tools of incumbency and apparently much of the PDP 
national machinery at his disposal. Now that Obasanjo 
has made his long awaited thrust, we await to see how 
his opponents will parry.  End comment 
 
 
JETER