US embassy cable - 05LAGOS365

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000365 
 
SIPDIS 
 
INFO AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2008 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIAN GOVERNOR: EXAMPLE OF GOOD GOVERNANCE BUT 
HOLD THE HALO 
 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Ogun State and its governor Gbenga Daniel 
have fared relatively well since the 2003 elections, which 
were manipulated in order to allow President Obasanjo to 
carry his home state by a wide margin.  Daniel, an Obasanjo 
protege, possibly could have won the elections without any 
tampering. In many ways, Daniel has done a solid job.  He has 
successfully wooed private investment, has improved 
transparency in state procurement and contracting practices 
and is extraordinarily accessible to his constituents.  The 
state boasts a high number of paved roads, relatively stable 
electricity, a growing mass transportation system, and an 
improving educational sector. 
 
2.  (C)  Summary Cont'd:  Once an Alliance for Democracy (AD) 
stronghold, Ogun State is now firmly PDP.  Daniel is close to 
President Obasanjo and in fact interrupted our meeting with 
him to receive a call from "Baba," concerning a local 
chieftaincy succession battle.  Daniel's performance is not 
without blemish.  He is accused of ignoring massive vote 
rigging in the state's 2004 local council elections. 
Although a rising star in the PDP, any national aspirations 
the governor may harbor will be handicapped by the fact that 
the South West region has had "its turn" under Obasanjo.  We 
expect Daniel's 2007 aspirations are for a second term as 
governor of Ogun State.  End Summary. 
 
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Wow....Look At These Roads! 
--------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU)  First-time visitors to Ogun state, Lagos's 
next-door neighbor, are usually surprised by the wide, paved, 
highway which ushers you into the state.  The road quality 
can only truly be appreciated by Lagosians and residents of 
South East Nigeria who routinely dodge potholes that could 
house a small country. When PolChief complimented the 
governor on this impressive entrance, he smiled knowingly, 
and replied, "Yeah, we get that a lot."  The state's road 
projects include intracity byways and rural access roads. In 
a short two years in power, Daniel's administration has 
rehabilitated over one hundred roads.  Work on each project 
is detailed in the state's budget.  For 2005, roads and 
electrification represent 21 percent of planned capital 
expenditures.  Other priority economic areas include 
developing an independent power plant (IPP), constructing a 
cargo airport focused on agriculture products, exploiting the 
state's mineral resources, and advancing the deep sea port 
and export processing zone project, which the state has 
embarked upon with its neighbor, Ondo state.  (Comment:  Some 
of these ideas may be overly ambitious.  However, at least 
Governor Daniel and company are thinking of ways to improve 
the state by strengthening the links between the state and 
the outside economy.  End Comment.) 
 
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Good Governance In Action 
------------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU)  We accompanied Daniel on a visit to local council 
areas.  Rather than ride in the official sedans, we, the 
governor and about 15 other state officials boarded a 
20-seater bus for the tour.  The itinerary included 
commissioning of various projects--schools, market stalls, 
health clinics, etc.  However, perhaps more importantly, it 
also included town-hall style meetings with community 
residents who commended the governor for projects well done, 
but also clearly communicated their expectations for further 
progress. 
 
5.  (SBU) Daniel visited all 200-plus constituencies during 
his 2003 campaign.  He conducts these multi-village tours at 
least quarterly.  In addition, he appears quarterly before 
the state legislature for a publicly open session entitled, 
"Question the Governor."  In a survey of the six southwestern 
states, conducted by the Center for Constitutional Governance 
(CCG), Daniel emerged the best regarded of the governors in 
the zone.  The survey's criteria included infrastructure 
development, improved social services, access to government 
officials, and employment generation. 
 
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Hold the Halo 
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6.  (C)  Kehinde Kolawole, Director of the Abeoukuta branch 
of the CCG, told us that the March 2004 local government 
elections in the state were "massively rigged" by the PDP. 
Kolawole maintained that coming on the heels of petroleum 
price hike, the population was angry and primed to vote for 
the opposition, i.e. the Alliance for Democracy (AD).  He 
said that CCG monitored the elections and witnessed 
widespread irregularities.  Kolawole asserted that Daniel 
"had to know about and consent to" the rigging.  He 
maintained, however, that this tacit complicity did not 
damage the governor's personal reputation and that the 
governor remains "tremendously popular." 
 
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Call from Baba 
-------------- 
 
7.  (C)  As pol-chief was sitting on the bus wondering 
exactly how close was the relationship between the Governor 
and President Obasanjo, as if on cue, "Baba" called.  Though 
Daniel switched to Yoruba soon into the conversation, Yoruba 
speaking econ-spec later translated.  The call concerned the 
installation of a new traditional king in Obasanjo's 
hometown, Owu.  Daniel assured Obasanjo that he had "taken 
care of it, without revealing his hand," and that the people 
would "wake up and find out that the chosen one had been 
enthroned."  A council of families elects traditional rulers. 
 The succession to the throne in Owu became controversial 
late 2004 when Obasanjo scuttled the ascension of the elected 
individual, after his preferred candidate lost.  (Comment: 
Outside observers continue to be astounded the President of 
the country meddles into such parochial affairs.  Traditional 
rulers have a pithy budget, limited power, and their 
relevance is almost exclusively cultural.  However, 
Nigerians, especially Yorubas, tell us that this is just 
another indication that Obasanjo believes that as President, 
he has become the foremost Yoruba personality.  As such, he 
has the right to control whomever else may come to some form 
of power in Yorubaland.  End Comment) 
 
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Comment 
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8. (C) Daniel, known as the "smiling governor" is extremely 
affable and engaging.  His hands-on style of governance is 
yielding good results in Ogun.  Some contacts have remarked 
that the governor would make a good choice for Vice President 
in 2007.  Though apparently professionally able, it would be 
very difficult for Daniel to gain the VP's office, since most 
view the south west as having been duly rewarded by 
Obasanjo's years in office.  Daniel likely will vie for a 
second gubernatorial term in Ogun.  If his performance 
continues on course, he should have few difficulties 
returning to office. 
BROWNE