US embassy cable - 05KINGSTON640

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINGSTON 000640 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR (BENT) 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD AND J7 (RHANNAN) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2015 
TAGS: JM, PGOV, PREL, election 
SUBJECT: A "NEW VISION" FOR THE JLP 
 
REF: A. KINGSTON 00386 
     B. KINGSTON 00253 
 
Classified By: P/E Geoffrey Siebengartner, Reason 1.4(d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (U) Emboffs met on February 24 with James Robertson, 
Deputy Chairman of the Jamaica Labor Party (JLP), and jointly 
on February 25 with Ken Baugh, Leader of the Opposition, and 
Karl Samuda, JLP General Secretary.  Robertson shared his 
thoughts on the outgoing leader, Edward Seaga, and the JLP,s 
plans to close the chapter on the man who led the party for 
30 years.  Baugh and Samuda laid out the JLP,s vision for 
the future, and the platform they will take into the upcoming 
general election. 
 
Robertson on Seaga: The King is Dead 
------------------------------------ 
 
2. (C) Poloff, Pol/Econ Chief, and visiting INR analyst met 
with James Robertson, Deputy Chairman of the JLP, on February 
24.  Robertson opened the conversation by reflecting on the 
previous weekend,s JLP annual conference at the National 
Arena, during which Bruce Golding was elected to lead the 
party (septel).  Robertson shared his frustration with, and 
even disdain for, Seaga,s actions surrounding the 
conference, which he characterized as childish.  Robertson 
offered that Seaga had originally announced that he would 
boycott the conference when he was deeply offended by its 
theme: "New Leadership, New Vision."  Following that 
announcement, however, Seaga made a surprise appearance at 
the event.  Robertson was clearly angered by the decision, 
which he called selfish and dangerous.  While he professed 
concern that the aged leader might have been injured in the 
standing room-only crowd of thousands of unruly supporters 
(many of whom appeared intoxicated), it was clear that 
Robertson's primary objection was to Seaga's showmanship at 
the event.  Robertson added that Seaga,s timing, which had 
him arrive after Golding, was intended to undermine the newly 
elected leader,s authority.  Robertson continued that Seaga 
did not want to step aside, but had been forced out by 
factions within the party.  As such, Seaga's appearance at 
the conference was not entirely unexpected, according to 
Robertson. 
 
3. (C) Robertson, who was a leading member of the reformist 
pro-Golding faction that pushed for Seaga,s departure, said 
that he once enjoyed a good relationship with the former 
leader.  However, the two have fallen out due to what 
Robertson described as his tendency to disagree with Seaga in 
a very direct manner, which caused confrontations of a sort 
to which the former leader was not accustomed.  Said 
Robertson, Seaga had come to expect more &respect8 in his 
dealings with party members.  (Note: &Disrespect8 allegedly 
shown to him by the JLP members has often been the subject of 
public comments made by Seaga.  End Note.) 
 
4. (C) On a more respectful note, Robertson admitted that 
very few leaders would ever achieve the kind of admiration 
and fierce loyalty that Seaga commanded from his West 
Kingston constituents in the 43 years during which he 
represented them as a Member of Parliament.  However, 
although they very much admire him as a father figure, 
Robertson insisted, Seaga's supporters would almost certainly 
not vote for him again if Seaga wished to stay on as MP. 
Robertson made the analogy of a child who reveres but does 
not obey a parent. 
 
5. (C) When asked about the overwhelmingly enthusiastic 
reception that Seaga received when he entered the arena at 
the annual conference (Note: cheers for the former leader 
were much louder than for the new leader, Golding.  End 
Note.), Robertson offered two observations.  First, he said 
that most of the people in the National Arena were the 
general public, many from Seaga's West Kingston constituency, 
and not voting delegates.  Second, he likened the event to a 
"Circus Maximus," where spectators cheer the loudest just 
before the gladiator is killed.  Robertson added, "the king 
is dead, long live the king." 
 
Waging a Campaign without Money 
------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Robertson described Golding's candidacy and rise to 
power as an opportunity created entirely by Golding's 
supporters.  As a result, Golding has used up so much 
political capital that his supporters now hold him 
&captive.8  The next 18 months, Robertson continued, will 
be Golding's only chance to win an election to lead the JLP. 
Robertson added that, while he and his team supported 
Golding's ascent, they are not in Golding's "kitchen 
cabinet," because the new leader fears them.  (Note: 
Robertson is part of a pro-Golding JLP faction, which 
includes Senator Horace Chang, commonly referred to as the 
"Young Turks." End Note.)  Robertson explained Prime Minister 
Patterson's historical record of timing general elections so 
that opposition candidates would deplete their campaign 
funding entirely, to be left with an unsustainable campaign 
in the crucial last leg of the effort.  Robertson continued 
to say that the JLP is currently "broke," and will have a 
particularly difficult time waging a sustainable campaign 
against the PNP.  As a result, Robertson said, his party is 
planning a very conservative and grassroots effort to keep 
Golding in the public view as much as possible over the next 
18 months. 
 
The JLP Platform Defined 
------------------------ 
 
8. (C) On February 25, Poloff, Pol/Econ Chief, and visiting 
INR analyst met with Ken Baugh, Opposition Leader, and Karl 
Samuda, JLP General Secretary.  In a discussion of the timing 
of the upcoming general election, which must be called by the 
Prime Minister by October 2007, Baugh and Samuda said they 
would be happy if the People,s National Party (PNP) 
government called an election right now, but ideally they 
would like six months to prepare Golding and strengthen his 
position.  In coming months, Samuda explained, Golding will 
present his platform as he tables discussions on structural 
reform in government, including republicanism, term limits, 
and fixed election dates.  The initiatives, all of which 
Golding championed when he separated from the JLP to form his 
own National Democratic Movement (NDM) party in 1995, are 
designed to wrest some power from the sitting government. 
Baugh pointed out that the small size of Jamaica's government 
 causes the Westminster system of Parliament not to work very 
well.  It favors the incumbent because the executive is such 
a large part of the House of Representatives and can easily 
dominate debates and win votes. 
 
9. (C) Samuda continued by describing the JLP as very much 
aligned with the U.S. Republican Party, favoring smaller 
government and business-friendly policy.  He asserted that 
the PNP government has grown from 70,000 to 120,000 employees 
during its reign.  Samuda added that he modeled the party,s 
annual conference after the 2004 U.S. Republican National 
Convention.  In addition to structural reform, Samuda spoke 
passionately about pro-business policies that would stimulate 
community-level business as the key to ending poverty and 
crime.  When asked about the promise of Chinese investment in 
the region (ref A), Samuda replied that there is a lot of 
opportunity in such a relationship.  However, he is not as 
enthusiastic as many of his countrymen, and believes that it 
will take some work for Jamaica to benefit from the 
relationship.  He thinks that the real value to Jamaica will 
be to learn the value of Chinese productivity. 
 
Comment 
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10. (C) Following a raucous but generally positive annual 
conference, and with a new leader in place, the JLP seems to 
be presenting a unified front and exploring a &new vision.8 
 In each discussion, our interlocutors contrasted the 
party,s current forward momentum with its backsliding in 
2004, caused by internal wranglings that were made public in 
the news media (ref B).  It was clear from our meetings with 
these top party officials that, despite the obstacle of 
financing, the JLP is encouraged by its new direction in 2005 
and is looking forward to a competitive campaign in the 
run-up to the general election.  On the issue of the Young 
Turks, some JLP insiders, including Seaga himself, have told 
us privately that Robertson and Chang are of concern less for 
their acknowledged political savvy and ruthlessness than for 
their strongly suspected involvement in illicit activities. 
This may be part of why Golding wants to keep them at arm's 
length.  End Comment. 
ROBINSON