US embassy cable - 05AMMAN1859

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 001859 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2015 
TAGS: PREL, ECON, MARR, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR KING ABDULLAH'S VISIT TO U.S. 
(MARCH 14-22) 
 
Classified By: CDA David Hale for Reasons 1.4 ((b), (d) 
 
1.  (S)  King Abdullah is very pleased to be returning to the 
U.S. after his most recent visit in December 2004.  The King, 
who sees his strategic interests as intertwined with our own 
regional agenda, remains committed to supporting our efforts 
to stabilize Iraq, advance Israeli-Palestinian peace, combat 
terrorism, and promote regional reforms.  Now six years on 
the throne, the King remains the driving force of what is a 
top-down reform process.  Impatient with the pace of his 
cabinet's and parliament's action on the reform agenda, but 
apparently not yet ready for another cabinet change, the King 
recently went around them by appointing two royal 
commissions.  One will study the establishment of regional 
assemblies with devolved powers, and the other brings a range 
of civil society representatives together to "establish a 
national agenda." 
 
2.  (S) While some activists question the King's motives, 
seeing the commissions as a device to deflect calls for more 
democratization, the King is insistent that he sees these 
commissions as essential and irreversible steps toward 
grass-roots democratization.  With successful and credible 
elections having occurred in January on two sides of his 
kingdom, the King is also keen to keep Jordan's own 
home-grown reform momentum going, and to garner international 
credit and support for doing so.  The ouster of the Lebanese 
government by a popular movement, and the Egyptian 
announcement of multi-candidate presidential elections, have 
reinforced the King's determination to appear in the vanguard 
of political reform in the region.  Jordan welcomes 
opportunities to host regional G8/BMENA/MEPI events, examples 
including a meeting of Arab justice ministers in February, 
and recent investment and corporate governance conferences. 
On the margins of the May 2005 Dead Sea WEF Jordan will host 
a G8/BMENA ministerial focused on educational reform. 
 
3.  (S) On Iraq, the King is heartened by news that President 
Bush has secured European commitments to help more.  He will 
reiterate his own readiness to play any supportive role we 
and the Iraqi authorities identify, although he may be 
receiving inconsistent signals from different arms of the USG 
(as well as from Iraqi officials) on how (or whether) Jordan 
should help encourage more Sunni Arab leaders to join the 
political process.  The King has begun to adjust to the 
reality that he will be dealing with a representative and 
democratically elected government in Baghdad, meaning one in 
which Shi'a take their fair share of power.  In private, he 
will reiterate concerns about the importance of including 
credible, untainted Sunni leaders in the political process as 
well as his fear of Iranian efforts to manipulate political 
opportunities now available to Iraq's Shi'a. 
 
4.  (S) The King and Foreign Minister have been blunt with 
the Syrian leadership, reinforcing our message on the need 
for fundamental changes in Syrian behavior.  Their 
admonitions, both in public and in private, on the need for 
immediate and full Syrian compliance with UNSCR 1559 have 
been among the most direct and assertive in the Arab world. 
However, Foreign Minister Mulki has advocated that in 
addition to the sticks now being applied on Syria, a small 
carrot is in order, by way of encouraging us and the Israelis 
to at least give Damascus a hearing on what it may have to 
offer in the Syrian-Israeli peace track.  A frank assessment 
of our own and Israeli views on Syrian offers in this 
direction would be helpful.  Jordan and Syria recently signed 
an agreement settling a long-running border dispute, but the 
King and his senior advisors remain skeptical of Syrian 
promises to try to intercept the flow of terrorists and their 
material across that border. 
 
5.  (S) The King will repeat his December, 2004 pledge to the 
President to "stick his neck out" for the U.S. on Iraq, 
Israel-Palestine, and regional reform, and he will repeat his 
argument that Jordan needs extra help because pressure from 
regional security problems put extra pressure on him.  He is 
grateful for the Administration's request for supplemental 
assistance, but had naturally hoped for more.  The King 
visited Riyadh March 6 to lobby for a renewal of the Saudis' 
oil grant which, along with similar cash and oil support from 
the UAE and Kuwait, has been keeping Jordan's economy afloat 
since March, 2003.  The Foreign Minister delivered similar 
messages in Abu Dhabi and Kuwait in February. 
 
6.  (S) Jordan merits our warm thanks for its work on behalf 
of our common interests and readiness to take domestic 
political flak on issues ranging from the return of a 
Jordanian ambassador to Tel Aviv to the December 2004 signing 
of the article 98 agreement.  The issues on the Jordan/Israel 
agenda -- highlighted by Foreign Minister Mulki's recent trip 
to Israel -- are the on-again, off-again proposals for a 
visit to Jordan by FM Shalom, and related Jordanian calls for 
the release of at least some Jordanian prisoners held in 
Israel for pre-peace treaty crimes.  We should encourage 
these two partners to work out their issues together. 
HALE