US embassy cable - 02HARARE1019

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001019 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR GURNEY 
PARIS FOR NEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, ZI, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: POLITBURO MEMBERS QUIETLY CONSIDER POST-MUGABE ERA 
 
 
Classified By: Political Section Chief Matt Harrington.  Reasons:  1.5 
(B) and (D). 
 
Summary 
-------- 
 
1.  (C) In an April 24 conversation with political section 
chief, ZANU-PF deputy political commissar Sikhanyiso Ndlovu 
said Politburo members are, for the first time, quietly 
discussing ways to ease President Mugabe out, but few are 
willing to confront the Zimbabwean President directly. 
According to Ndlovu, any solution must contain a "safe 
package" for Mugabe which protects him from prosecution and 
allows him to remain in Zimbabwe.  ZANU-PF heavyweight 
Emmerson Mnangagwa is not well-liked by his senior ruling 
party colleagues, but Defense Minister Sydney Sekeramayi 
enjoys broad Politburo support as a potential Mugabe 
successor.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (C) Political section chief met on April 24 with ZANU-PF 
deputy political commissar and Politburo member Sikhanyiso 
Ndlovu, at the latter's request.  As in previous 
conversations with us, Ndlovu described himself as a voice of 
moderation on the Politburo who regularly tries to restrain 
the worst excesses of party hardliners.  He claimed that, now 
that the election is over, he spends much less of his time on 
politics, concentrating instead on running his private 
educational institutes around the country.  He did not 
inquire whether he had been placed on the list of those 
targetted by U.S. sanctions. 
 
Talk of the post-Mugabe era 
--------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Ndlovu reported that, for the first time since he 
joined the Politburo two years ago, members are talking 
openly among themselves about what comes after Mugabe, and 
how to ease the Zimbabwean president out.  The Politburo is 
full of &aspiring8 individuals who want their own chance at 
the top job, Ndlovu pointed out.  Two options have been 
discussed informally among like-minded members.  The first is 
to somehow invoke the section of the draft constitution 
rejected in 2000 creating the position of prime minister. 
Creation of such a post, giving it executive powers, and 
making the presidency a largely ceremonial position would be 
one way to preserve Mugabe's ego.  Ndlovu stressed several 
times it was important to provide Mugabe with a &safe 
package8 which protects him from prosecution and allows him 
to live out his remaining years in Zimbabwe.  The second 
possibility under informal consideration is to engineer the 
appointment of two young, vigorous vice-presidents, who 
gradually are able to become the primary decision-makers. 
 
No Support for Election Re-Run 
------------------------------ 
 
4.  (C) Polchief emphasized to Ndlovu that the USG did not 
consider Mugabe to have been legitimately elected, and we had 
come to the conclusion that the best way to restore 
legitimacy is via a transitional mechanism that leads to an 
opportunity for Zimbabweans to choose their leader in a 
genuinely free and fair process.  Not surprisingly, Ndlovu 
replied that there is no support whatsoever on the Politburo 
for a rerun of the election, and certainly not one which is 
internationally supervised.  He insisted that Zimbabweans are 
sick of the politicking and violence which accompany 
elections, and just wanted to move forward. 
 
Hardliners vs. the moderates 
---------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Ndlovu urged the USG not to paint everyone in ZANU-PF 
with one brush.  The party includes moderates like himself 
who are trying to push for positive change from within.  The 
problem is that the hardliners have the upper hand, and the 
moderates are not willing to stick their necks out.  The one 
prominent exception is retired general Solomon Mujuru, who 
recently asked Mugabe during a Politburo meeting when he 
planned to step down.  Mugabe respects and fears Mujuru, 
Ndlovu said, because the former armed forces chief still 
retains the loyalty of many senior military commanders. 
Mujuru is also now independently wealthy, which gives him a 
freedom for maneuver that those whose livelihoods depend on 
ruling party beneficence do not have.  Even Mujuru, though, 
is careful not to push too hard.  Asked why Politburo members 
who disagreed with ruling party policies did not resign, 
Ndlovu seemed surprised by the question, and said one was 
appointed to the Politburo.  Anyone who tried to resign, he 
said, would face very negative &consequences.8 
6.  (C) Ndlovu described Speaker of Parliament -) and 
ZANU-PF Secretary for Administration -- Emmerson Mnangagwa as 
a ruling party hardliner &through and through8 who has 
little Politburo support, due primarily to his ruthlessness. 
  Asked whether there was anyone the Politburo would endorse 
as the next President, Ndlovu named Minister of Defense 
Sydney Sekeramayi. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7.  (C) It is noteworthy that Politburo members are beginning 
to speak openly about the post-Mugabe era and even discussing 
means of nudging out the Zimbabwean president.  It is 
unclear, however, whether those involved in such discussions 
have the capacity or gumption to translate talk into action. 
Ndlovu and his like-minded colleagues apparently have focused 
exclusively on how to prolong the ruling party's hold on 
power, minus Mugabe; forging a genuine reconciliation with 
the political opposition has apparently not figured in their 
calculations. 
 
8.  (C) Ndlovu, an Ndebele and a youthful-looking 65, is a 
shameless self-promoter whose soliloquies on his 
contributions to Zimbabwe,s nation-building and educational 
system are painful to endure.  (He previously served as 
Deputy Minister of Higher Education and founded a number of 
adult education institutes around the country.)  It is 
unclear how much influence Ndlovu wields among his Politburo 
colleagues, but his key position as deputy political 
commissar and willingness to reach out to us make him worth 
staying in touch with.  He is fond of the United States, with 
which he has longstanding connections -) he earned his 
doctorate in education at Syracuse in the 1970,s, and 
several of his children live in the U.S.  At least one child 
is a U.S. citizen who served in the Marine Corps and who, 
Ndlovu likes to  recollect, got married in the Pentagon mess. 
 
 
9.  (C) Both of Ndlovu's succession scenarios are 
problematic.  The move to ceremonial president does not 
address the issue of whether the autocratic Mugabe would 
continue to dictate policy behind the scenes.  Nomination of 
two young vice presidents can occur only if Mugabe concurs, 
and would face strong resistance from Mnangagwa and other 
hard-liners unless they were the anointed successors. 
Ndlovu's scenarios sound to us more like wishful thinking 
than the likely way ahead. 
 
SULLIVAN