US embassy cable - 02ABUJA1318

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001318 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON, EFIN, EAID, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: LITTLE PROGRESS TOWARD AN IPRSP 
 
 
1. Summary:  The World Bank invited GON officials and a small 
group of donors to an April 2-4 retreat with representatives 
of African countries that had successfully completed the 
Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) process.  The retreat 
was a limited success in reorienting Nigeria's approach to 
the PRSP and spurring progress in producing a useful Interim 
Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (IPRSP).  In an April 12 
meeting, international donors discussed the results of the 
retreat.  As of now, the process stands as follows: 
 
 
a) The PRSP process lacks strong commitment and an 
articulated vision from the highest levels of the Government. 
 Key GON officials needed to make this process work may not 
clearly understand PRSP.  Donors will identify and work with 
GON officials to 
fill this leadership gap. 
 
 
b) Participation by civil society and state and local 
governments is currently insufficient.  Donors will seek 
opportunities to broaden participation by these groups. 
 
 
c) The national political leadership is hesitant to reach out 
to civil society and grassroots organizations on reforms 
before the elections for fear of raising questions about why 
the current Administration has not effectively addressed 
these issues after three years in power. 
 
 
d) Donors agree Nigeria should not be pressured to complete 
the PRSP quickly if the result would be a paper exercise with 
little follow-through. 
 
 
e) The World Bank should write the President and Vice 
President articulating a common donor approach to the GON on 
PRSP matters.  This missive will form the basis for talking 
points to be used by individual donor diplomatic missions. 
End summary. 
 
 
2. Donors met April 12 to discuss Nigeria's progress toward 
an Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper.  Discussion 
focused on progress made during the April 2-4 retreat 
organized by the World Bank for representatives of the donor 
community and members of the GON National Forum.  The retreat 
was designed to educate the GON team on how successful PRSPs 
have been completed elsewhere and to raise awareness of 
poverty measurement techniques and the relationship between 
the macroeconomy and poverty reduction.  The National Forum, 
with 86 members including five members of the donor 
community, is to be reconstituted from the superceded 
National Core Team, which had approximately 35 members.  The 
mandate of the National Forum includes public outreach, 
consensus-building and drafting of the Poverty Reduction 
Strategy Paper.  The National Forum is working under the 
Guidance Committee, chaired by Festus Osunsade, Secretary of 
the Presidency's Economic Policy Coordination Committee. 
 
 
3. Approximately three dozen GON officials, including the 
President's Principal Secretary Stephen Oronsaye and 
Director-General of the Debt Management Office Akin Arikawe, 
attended the retreat, along with a handful of donor community 
members.  Representatives from Uganda and Ethiopia -- two 
countries that have successfully completed PRSPs -- presented 
their perspectives on the PRSP process. The group broke out 
into three working groups focused on: broad-based 
participation in the PRSP process, the relationship between 
macroeconomic policy and poverty alleviation, and data 
requirements for a successful PRSP. 
 
 
4. Donor community participants agreed that much work remains 
to be done before Nigeria will complete an Interim PRSP and 
that the GON should not be pressured to complete the PRSP 
quickly.  There continues to be a wide gap between donor and 
GON perceptions of what constitutes a good PRSP.  Some donors 
cited a lack of seriousness among GON officials and a sharp 
division between the few Nigerians who understand the need 
for a PRSP and the much larger group of those who lack this 
understanding.  The participants also noted strong 
institutional competition between GON officials involved with 
the various poverty programs, such as the NAPEP (National 
Poverty Eradication Program), the PAP (Poverty Alleviation 
Program) and the PRSP. 
 
 
5. One obstacle to achieving a comprehensive PRSP is the lack 
of high-level GON leadership and absence of a common 
objective.  It remains unclear who at the highest levels is 
responsible for the PRSP; although the Chief Economic Advisor 
to the President is tasked with this responsibility, his long 
absences from the country have kept him out of the loop and 
he has assigned the task to the EPCC.  Completion of a 
meaningful PRSP may depend upon one or more high-level GON 
advocates, or a small group of mid-level, but influential 
champions to push the process forward.  However, with 
national elections looming, the political leadership may be 
hesitant to tackle the PRSP, which implies a commitment to 
fundamental reform.  Many GON officials have commented that 
in the process of soliciting input from civil society, 
expectations will be raised that the government will deliver 
poverty alleviation programs.  No one wants to raise 
expectations at this time. 
 
 
6. The retreat revealed that some Nigerians view the PRSP 
solely as a mechanism to obtain debt relief while others 
focus on the personal political benefits the resources given 
to poverty alleviation can bring.  The donors agreed that 
Nigeria must develop and articulate a clear vision and 
purpose for the Poverty Reduction Strategy and felt that it 
would be up to the Economic Policy Coordination Committee 
(EPCC) to fulfill this need. 
 
 
7. The donors agreed upon the following next steps: 
 
 
-- Donors need to elevate efforts to include a wider range of 
stakeholders, including state and local governments and civil 
society groups.  To do this, however, all agreed that 
Nigerian civil society must be educated on how to carry on a 
positive and constructive dialogue with the GON. 
 
 
-- Donors must identify a small group of influential GON 
officials who can effectively champion the PRSP process. 
Some proposed names included Stephen Oronsaye, Principal 
Secretary to the President; Akin Arikawe, Director-General of 
 
SIPDIS 
the Debt Management Office; and Bola Illori, National 
Planning Commission. 
 
 
-- Donors will continue to communicate to the GON the 
importance and reformist nature of the PRSP in a variety of 
ways, including through diplomatic channels. 
 
 
-- Donors should continue work with the EPCC to better 
articulate the GON's objectives and vision for the PRSP and a 
deadline for the IPRSP. 
 
 
-- The World Bank will draft a letter to the President and 
Vice President outlining donors' views and prepare talking 
points as a common agenda for the donors' use in bilateral 
discussions with the GON. 
 
 
8. Comment.  Progress on the IPRSP has been excruciatingly 
slow because the GON has not gotten its act together.  The 
absence of a high-level GON advocate for the PRSP, combined 
with the lack of a clear vision and articulation of what the 
PRSP means for Nigeria, continues to frustrate the donor 
community.  There is a growing recognition among the donors, 
however, that Nigeria should not be pressured into completing 
this process too quickly, as this would probably result in a 
document that pays mere lip service without providing a 
realistic and achievable action plan to alleviate poverty. 
Moreover, with elections fast approaching, the GON may not 
want to raise public awareness of the PRSP for fear of 
evoking expectations of significant resources and improved 
social services ) neither of which is likely in the 
near-term.  A viable IPRSP will also commit the GON to a 
course of responsible macroeconomic management, budget 
re-prioritization, and transparency that it is not willing to 
undertake at this point.  In short, Nigeria's PRSP will 
remain a long-term objective of the donor community.  How and 
whether donors can support a PRSP process under these 
conditions remains unclear.  Decisions about what 
implications there might be for donor assistance in support 
of programs growing out of a PRSP will not be taken soon. 
End Comment. 
 
 
JETER