US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI956

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000956 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, CH, TW, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: ANTI-SECESSION LAW: CONTENTS TO DEFINE TAIWAN'S 
REACTION 
 
REF: A. TAIPEI 865 
 
     B. TAIPEI 934 
     C. TAIPEI 877 
     D. TAIPEI 773 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: The Chen administration is preparing two 
responses to the PRC's Anti-Secession Law, depending on the 
PRC draft's contents.  Officials say that if the law includes 
ambiguity about "one China," and no reference to the use of 
"non-peaceful" means to resolve the Taiwan Strait issue, they 
will simply reiterate Taiwan's position on the sovereignty of 
the "Republic of China" and restart efforts towards dialogue. 
 If, however, the PRC law outlaws Taiwan independence 
activities, asserts that Taiwan is a province of the PRC, or 
states conditions for using force, Chen administration 
officials say they will respond sharply.  Democratic 
Progressive Party (DPP) Chairman Su Tseng-chang told a crowd 
on March 6 that one reaction to a toughly-worded law would 
include an April 500,000-plus person anti-annexation rally 
led by President Chen Shui-bian.  Observers say that the 
contents of the PRC law could also undermine the Chen 
administration's attempts to forge a working relationship 
with the People First Party (PFP) and perhaps even the DPP's 
broader recent shift to the political center.  All of this 
underscores that Taiwan domestic politics will be an 
important determinant in how the DPP government reacts.  End 
Summary. 
 
Preparing for Better or Worse 
----------------------------- 
 
2. (C) National Security Council (NSC) Senior Advisor for 
cross-Strait affairs Chen Chung-hsin told AIT on March 7 that 
the government has reached an internal consensus on its 
response to a PRC announcement on the contents of the 
Anti-Secession Law.  Chen said the government hopes that the 
PRC law would be light on substance, but is preparing for the 
worst.  Chen stated that a law that referred to Taiwan simply 
as "part of China" (vice the PRC), urges "peaceful 
unification," and contains other ambiguous formulations would 
elicit from Taiwan a restatement of its position that "the 
Republic of China is a sovereign and independent country, it 
belongs to the 23 million people of Taiwan, and any change to 
its sovereign status will require the agreement of the Taiwan 
people."  After making such a pro forma response, Chen said 
the government should be able to resume recent initiatives to 
reopen an economic and political dialogue with Beijing. 
 
3. (C) Chen expressed concern, however, that the PRC law may 
yet contain language that Taiwan has defined as "harsh," 
despite the mild commentary by PRC leaders over the weekend. 
Chen said that the government has narrowed its definitions of 
a "severe" law to: 1) statement that Taiwan is a Province of 
the Republic of China; 2) reference to conditions under which 
"non-peaceful means" would be used to resolve the Taiwan 
issue; 3) definition of "Taiwan independence activities" as 
illegal.  Chen warned that "we would be under immense 
pressure from our Pan-Green supporters" if Beijing's law 
included one or more of these formulations.  At the very 
least, Chen stated further economic liberalization and 
efforts to bridge the "1992 consensus" (Ref A) gap would be 
put on indefinite hold.  Chen added that a reference to "one 
country, two systems" would not be welcomed, but may not, on 
its own, be considered grounds for a strong Taiwan reaction. 
 
Warning (Loudly) of Consequences 
-------------------------------- 
 
4. (C) Chen acknowledged that DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang's 
March 6 warning that President Chen Shui-bian would lead more 
than a half a million people to protest the Anti-Secession 
Law is among the responses to a perceived "harsh" text under 
active consideration.  Su made the announcement during a 
DPP-organized anti-annexation rally in Taipei, despite 
assurances given to AIT from the NSC on March 4 (Ref B) that 
Su would not mention the President's participation at the 
proposed April march.  At the same March 6 venue, Premier 
Frank Hsieh warned that PRC leaders would have to take full 
responsibility for the reaction in Taiwan if they proceed 
with action on the Anti-Secession Law. 
 
5. (C) The DPP event was held on the same day as a public 
anti-annexation protest held in Kaohsiung, organized by the 
Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU).  Turnout at the DPP event was 
less than 1,500, while AIT/K observers estimate the Kaohsiung 
crowd at no more than 15,000.  Despite the modest turnout at 
the two March 6 rallies, observers tell AIT they expect a 
strongly-worded law to put enormous pressure on President 
Chen to pull back from his recent moderate line.  KMT ethnic 
Taiwanese faction (bentupai) leader James Chen told AIT that 
the timing for the PRC law could not have been worse.  "The 
TSU will ride this right into the May 14 National Assembly 
 
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(NA) election," he warned.  Chen added that if the TSU were 
to perform strongly on May 14, the fury of DPP fundamentalist 
anger at Chen's recent moderate line could dwarf their outcry 
over Chen's February 24 meeting with PFP Chairman James Soong 
(Ref C).  "Chen may be forced to abandon any attempts at 
compromise with the Pan-Blues just to quiet calls from his 
own base for his resignation," Chen remarked. 
 
6. (C) Presidential Office officials acknowledge this risk, 
and say they are urging Soong to stand side-by-side with Chen 
on the Anti-Secession Law once it is announced in order to 
demonstrate that the DPP is not selling out Taiwan in 
exchange for help from Soong.  Chen administration officials 
won a small victory towards this united front when the PFP 
signed on to a Legislative Yuan (LY) resolution opposing the 
Anti-Secession Law on March 4 (see para 8 for text). 
However, officials remain concerned that Soong may yet break 
ranks with the President over the PRC law.  Lin You-chang, a 
member of the Presidential Office-PFP working group, told AIT 
that Chen could tolerate Soong's low-key stance before the 
contents of the law are revealed (Ref D).  However, Lin 
warned that if Soong were to remain silent in the face of a 
"harsh" Anti-Secession Law text, future DPP-PFP cooperation 
on cross-Strait and other issues could be put in severe 
jeopardy. 
 
Comment: Two Choices 
-------------------- 
 
7. (C) On the eve of National People's Congress (NPC) 
deliberation, the Chen administration appears to have 
formally clarified its position over what would constitutes 
an "acceptable" Anti-Secession Law text.  Whether Beijing 
knows or cares about Taiwan's position, however, is unclear 
to officials in Taipei.  Officials remain equally uncertain 
over what exact steps -- protests, countervailing 
legislation, a referendum, or something else -- their own 
government may yet take if the PRC law does cross Taiwan's 
newly defined "red lines."  In the end, Chen's actions may be 
dictated more by the actions of his erstwhile "allies," the 
TSU and PFP, than any premeditated policy decision.  In 
 
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short, Taiwan domestic politics may be the decisive 
consideration in how the DPP government responds. 
 
8. Begin Informal AIT Translation of March 4 LY Resolution: 
 
On behalf of the nation's citizens, the Legislative Yuan 
offers the following response to Mainland China's efforts to 
enact an "Anti-Secession Law": 
 
1) Since its founding, the Republic of China has been a 
sovereign, independent country.  Any unilateral attempt to 
change or weaken this sovereignty will require the support 
and approval of the people of Taiwan and the international 
community. 
 
2) Peaceful development is not only the common value of the 
international community, it is also the desire of the people 
on both sides of the (Taiwan) Strait.  Since the Beijing 
authorities are preparing to enact an "Anti-Secession Law," 
we make the following solemn appeal: If the contents of this 
law violate the rights of the Taiwan people, it will incite a 
strong opposition from the Taiwan people.  Beijing should 
carefully consider this before proceeding. 
 
3) The recent positive atmosphere created by the Lunar New 
Year charter flights is the result of the common achievements 
of the governments on both sides of the (Taiwan) Strait.  We 
should use this spirit of consultation and respect to create 
mutually beneficial relations across the Taiwan Strait. 
 
4) All the party caucuses of this chamber endeavor to work to 
support policies that will allow for peaceful relations 
across the Taiwan Strait. 
End informal AIT translation. 
PAAL