US embassy cable - 05MANILA1056

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANILA 001056 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/PMBS 
NSC FOR GREEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2015 
TAGS: MOPS, MARR, PREL, PTER, RP 
SUBJECT: FURTHER PROGRESS IN COUNTERTERRORISM SCENARIO 
STAFF TALKS 
 
REF: MANILA 286 
 
Classified By: (U) Political Officer Paul O'Friel 
for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY.  The second in a series of USG-GRP staff 
talks on the development of counterterrorism cooperation 
scenarios produced progress, with a notable "climate change" 
on the RP side in the wake of the February 14 terrorist 
bombings in Manila and Mindanao.  The two sides reached 
consensus on a maritime and land scenario, and will focus on 
developing detailed mission analyses in the next round of 
talks, scheduled for mid-March.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (C) February 21-25 counterterrorism scenario discussions 
between US Pacific Command and Armed Forces of the 
Philippines (AFP) and Department of National Defense (DND) 
staff counterparts built upon January 12-14 working-level 
meetings (reftel).  Leaving aside -- for the moment -- the 
legalistic concerns of the earlier session, the thirty-plus 
GRP participants -- ranging from DND Undersecretary for 
Policy Antonio Santos to the AFP "J" and service staffs -- 
came fully prepared and ready to focus on practical maritime 
and land scenarios.  Acknowledging the impact of the February 
14 terrorist bombings on his government, DND Assistant 
Secretary for Policy Melchor admitted, "the climate has 
 
SIPDIS 
changed." 
 
3.  (C) In identifying realistic options, the USPACOM and GRP 
staffers developed a matrix that listed: activities both 
sides considered "legal" and acceptable; activities that the 
AFP considered "borderline," but still feasible; and, 
activities that would "test" the limits for either the USG or 
GRP, e.g., Filipino pilots flying US aircraft or US aircraft 
flying close air support for Filipino forces. 
 
4.  (C) Philippine Navy and Marine officers discussed in 
detail the concept of an "operational box" in the AFP's 
Southern Command area of Mindanao, out of which US Navy 
elements could stage for combined operations with Filipino 
units in Philippine national waters.  Undersecretary Santos 
separately commented toward the end of the discussions that 
this realistic examination of legalities, training resources, 
and popular perceptions demonstrated that the United States 
and the Philippines had "come a long way in three years." 
However, Philippine Navy participants expressed concern about 
the legality of any maritime scenario unless both sides 
clearly defined and agreed upon the nature and extent of 
Philippine territorial waters. 
 
5.  (C) Looking ahead, both sides agreed the next step is to 
develop detailed mission analyses for the maritime and land 
scenarios.  The DND suggested participation in future talks 
should broaden to include the Philippine Coast Guard and the 
Philippine National Police.  Undersecretary Santos also 
advocated development of a information campaign to educate 
public opinion about USG counterterrorism support for the 
Philippines.  He noted public opinion surveys indicated that 
80-percent of the Philippine population supported the USG 
presence and help with GRP counterterrorism efforts.  The 
information campaign would have to address the vocal 
20-percent minority, as well as pockets of resistance even 
within the AFP, he noted. 
 
6.  (C) COMMENT.  We are encouraged by the progress in the 
counterterrorism development talks and attribute much of the 
success to the leadership of Secretary of National Defense 
Cruz, who appears to have given clear direction to his team 
of where to go.  However, the devil will be in the details. 
The "legal" questions are sure to resurface in the near 
future, and we do not discount the power of bureaucratic 
inertia and latent misplaced nationalistic sentiment to 
derail any consensus, at least temporarily. 
 
 
 
Visit Embassy Manila's Classified website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/manila/index. cfm 
Ricciardone