US embassy cable - 05PARIS1412

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001412 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY (FRANK); BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; 
AF/PA; EUR/WE (DEBORAH MENNUTI)/P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA 
(BERBENA); INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE 
HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA 
(ANN LUZZATO); USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA; 
BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - LEBANON AND SYRIA - ISRAEL 
AND PALESTINE - IRAQ: FORMATION OF A NEW GOVERNMENT 
PARIS - FRIDAY, MARCH 04, 2005 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
  1.   LEBANON AND SYRIA 
2.   ISRAEL AND PALESTINE 
3.   IRAQ - FORMATION OF A NEW GOVERNMENT 
 
(B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
ISSUES SURROUNDING FRENCH HOSTAGE FLORENCE AUBENAS HELD IN 
IRAQ AND PRIME MINISTER RAFFARIN'S DECISION TO KEEP PARLIAMENT 
MEMBER DIDIER JULIA FROM NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE HOSTAGE TAKERS 
MAKES THE FRONT PAGES OF A MAJORITY OF DAILIES. 
 
SERGE JULY, PUBLISHER OF LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (AUBENAS' 
EMPLOYER) PENS AN EDITORIAL IN WHICH HE PRAISES RAFFARIN FOR 
HIS FIRM LINE THAT WILL PREVENT THE HOSTAGE-TAKERS FROM BEING 
ABLE TO "PLAY THE FRENCH EMISSARIES AGAINST EACH OTHER WHICH 
RESULTS IN INNUMERABLE COLLATERAL DAMAGES." THE EDITORIAL IN 
RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO STRESSES THAT "NATIONAL UNITY IS THE 
BEST DEFENSE FACED WITH THE HOSTAGE TAKERS." 
 
POPULAR RIGHT-OF-CENTER DAILY FRANCE SOIR CARRIES AN INTERVIEW 
WITH ANTOINE BASBOUS, DIRECTOR OF THE OBSERVATORY OF ARAB 
COUNTRIES, UNDER THE SUB-HEADING: "THE U.S. IS CAPABLE IF 
BOMBING IRANIAN NUCLEAR INSTALLATIONS." BASBOUS GIVES AN 
OVERVIEW OF THE VARIOUS "HOT SPOTS" IN THE MIDDLE EAST. HE 
CALLS THE SITUATION IN LEBANON "VERY PROMISING. THANKS NAMELY 
TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S INVOLVEMENT AND PARTICULARLY 
THANKS TO THE FRANCO-AMERICAN ALLIANCE THAT HAS UNDERTAKEN TO 
FREE LEBANON FROM SYRIAN OCCUPATION." (SEE PART C) REGARDING 
IRAN, BASBOUS INSISTS THAT THE NEGOTIATIONS UNDERTAKEN WITH 
IRAN BY THE FRENCH, GERMANS AND BRITISH WILL PROVE IN THE LONG 
RUN "THAT THE EU DOES NOT HAVE THE POWER NECESSARY TO DISSUADE 
TEHERAN. I AM AFRAID THAT THE LIMITS OF DIPLOMACY WILL QUICKLY 
BECOME EVIDENT." 
 
"FOUR YEARS TO CHANGE THE WORLD. BUSH'S AMERICA 2005-2008" THE 
LATEST WORK BY BRUNO TERTRAIS, RESEARCHER AT THE FOUNDATION 
FOR STRATEGIC RESEARCH IS REVIEWED IN LEFT-OF-CENTER 
LIBERATION. TERTRAIS WRITES: "EUROPE MUST ACKNOWLEDGE THAT 
BUSH'S AMERICA POSES LEGITIMATE QUESTIONS CONCERNING WORLD 
GOVERNANCE, INTERNATIONAL LAW AND THE USE OF FORCE. [EUROPE] 
HAS THE CHOICE OF EITHER PROMOTING CHANGE IN THE WORLD 
ALONGSIDE THE U.S. OR WATCHING THE WORLD CHANGE WITHOUT IT." 
TERTRAIS ALSO CALLS FRENCH DIPLOMACY'S PENCHANT FOR 
MULTIPOLARITY "ILLUSORY" AND PROMOTES A FORM OF DIPLOMACY THAT 
WOULD BE MADE UP OF "TWO THIRDS BLAIR AND ONE THIRD CHIRAC." 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
LEBANON AND SYRIA 
 
"BUSH AND HIS VICTORIES" 
IVAN RIOUFOL IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (03/04): "THE SPREAD 
OF DEMOCRACY IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS REACHING LEBANON. WHICH HAS 
BEEN INSPIRED BY THE ELECTIONS IN IRAQ. INDEED THE COURAGE OF 
THE IRAQI VOTERS ON JANUARY 30, WHO DEFIED THE THREAT OF 
TERRORIST ATTACKS IN ORDER TO VOTE HAS PROMPTED THE LEBANESE 
TO BRAVE THE BAN ON DEMONSTRATING AND DEMAND THE WITHDRAWAL OF 
THE SYRIAN OCCUPIER. TODAY EVENTS PROVE THAT GEORGE BUSH'S 
POLICY WITH RESPECT TO TOPPLING TYRANTS THROUGH MILITARY MIGHT 
AND THEREBY CREATING A `DOMINO EFFECT' [IN THE MIDDLE EAST] IS 
JUSTIFIED. THERE IS A CERTAIN SATISFACTION IN SEEING THE 
EMBARRASSMENT THAT THIS CAUSES AMONG THE FRENCH ANTI-BUSHITES, 
WHO ABOUND AT THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND IN THE 
PRESS. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO MAKE A GENERAL ASSESSMENT 
OF THE RESULTS OF AMERICAN POLICY IN THE MIDDLE EAST. NONE OF 
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN LEBANON, IN IRAQ, IN PALESTINE OR IN THE 
NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES WOULD HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE IF THE 
AMERICANS AND THEIR ALLIES HAD NOT SET THE BALL ROLLING. IT IS 
HIGH TIME FOR FRANCE. TO GET ON BOARD." 
 
ISRAEL AND PALESTINE 
"DIPLOMACY BETWEEN WORDS AND DEEDS" 
THOMAS FERENCZI IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE (03/04): "EUROPEANS 
ARE ADAMANT THAT THEY HAVE A ROLE TO PLAY IN SETTLING THE 
ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT. THEY REFUSE TO LET AMERICA HAVE 
THE MONOPOLY IN DIPLOMATIC NEGOTIATIONS. BUT EUROPE'S 
POWERLESSNESS IS NOT THE RESULT OF INTERNAL DIVISIONS, IT IS 
DUE ON THE ONE HAND TO ISRAEL'S REFUSAL TO ALLOW EUROPE TO 
PLAY AN ACTIVE ROLE IN THE NEGOTIATIONS AND ON THE OTHER HAND 
TO ITS INABILITY TO BE AT THE SAME LEVEL, MILITARILY OR 
FINANCIALLY, AS THE U.S.. NEITHER THE ISRAELIS NOR THE 
PALESTINIANS ARE CONVINCED OF THE LEGITIMACY OF EUROPEAN 
MEDIATION. THE SETTLEMENT OF THIS CONFLICT REPRESENTS A REAL 
TEST FOR THE `EUROPEAN POWER.'" 
 
IRAQ - FORMATION OF A NEW GOVERNMENT 
 
"IRAQ: STILL UNCERTAIN" 
JEAN-CLAUDE KIEFER IN REGIONAL DAILY LES DERNIERES NOUVELLES 
D'ALSACE PENS AN EDITORIAL (03/04): "THE SHIITE AND KURDISH 
PARTIES SEEM INCAPABLE OF AGREEING ON A GOVERNMENT, WHICH, IN 
ANY CASE, WOULD HAVE NO REAL AUTHORITY.... A FULL MONTH AFTER 
THE ELECTIONS, THE SITUATION IS STILL CONFUSING.  KURDISH 
SEPARATISM IS A REALITY.  THE SHIITES ARE STRENGTHENING THEIR 
HOLD ON THE REST OF THE COUNTRY, RESULTING IN A STRONGER SUNNI 
REBELLION SUPPORTED BY AL-QAIDA-INSPIRED ISLAMISTS AND ALSO BY 
"SECULARS" FROM THE FORMER BAAS PARTY.  IN IRAQ, NOTHING IS 
SETTLED...EVEN IF PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH AND HIS SECRETARY 
OF STATE CONDOLEZZA RICE STRIVE TO MAKE US BELIEVE OTHERWISE." 
LEACH