US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI934

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000934 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CH, TW, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: ANTI-SECESSION LAW REACTION: IMPATIENTLY WAITING 
 
REF: TAIPEI 819 
 
Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: Political and media focus is growing over PRC 
plans to enact an Anti-Annexation Law during the March 
National People's Congress (NPC) session.  The Democratic 
Progressive Party (DPP) will hold an anti-annexation rally in 
Taipei on March 6, the same day as the Taiwan Solidarity 
Union (TSU) organizes a larger event in Kaohsiung.  DPP 
Chairman Su Tseng-chang will announce his party's intention 
to hold another large scale rally in April if Beijing 
proceeds with its proposed law.  The ruling and opposition 
Legislative Yuan (LY) caucuses also agreed on March 4 on a 
resolution urging Beijing not to approve the draft 
Anti-Annexation Law.  Despite the frenzied media and 
political atmosphere, Chen administration officials say they 
plan to maintain a low-profile in the period leading up to 
the announcement of the PRC's law text.  Officials warn, 
however, that if the PRC law is strongly worded, Taiwan could 
witness protests on the scale of the 2003 Hong Kong 
demonstrations over revisions to Article 23 of the Basic Law. 
 One veteran DPP moderate assessed to AIT, however, that the 
tone and scale of Taiwan's public reaction may be determined 
largely by how President Chen Shui-bian decides to interpret 
the "severity" of the PRC law once it contents are revealed. 
End Summary. 
 
Dueling Legislatures 
-------------------- 
 
2. (C) The Taiwan media and political world are increasingly 
focused on PRC plans to pass an Anti-Secession Law at the 
upcoming NPC session.  On March 4, LY President Wang Jin-pyng 
announced that the ruling and opposition LY caucuses had 
agreed to pass a resolution urging the NPC not to take action 
an Anti-Secession Law.  Although the full text of the 
resolution has not yet been released, Wang said the parties 
will state their shared commitment to the "sovereignty of the 
Republic of China" and urge Beijing not to destroy the 
positive recent atmospherics across the Taiwan Strait. 
Representatives from the LY's four party caucuses met several 
times on March 3-4 to work out a compromise text that could 
gain unanimous support.  On March 4, the TSU provided AIT a 
copy of its draft resolution (faxed to EAP/TC).  (Note: In 
doing so, however, the TSU violated a prior agreement to keep 
their meeting with AIT out of the press.  End Note.) 
 
Rallies to Start Out Small 
-------------------------- 
 
3. (C) In addition to the joint resolution, the TSU and DPP 
plan to hold separate public rallies in Taipei and Kaohsiung 
on March 6 to protest the PRC's legislative moves.  DPP 
central party officials tell AIT that their Taipei rally will 
employ less provocative themes than the TSU's event.  DPP 
Kaohsiung City Chairman Chao Wen-nan, however, told the AIT/K 
Branch Chief that local DPP officials, including Acting Mayor 
Chen Chi-mai, have agreed to attend the March 6 TSU rally in 
exchange for a pledge that speakers not criticize President 
Chen or the DPP.  Former President Lee Teng-hui, who has 
repeatedly lashed out at Chen and the DPP over Chen's 
February 24 meeting with opposition leader James Soong 
(Septel), will lead the TSU's Kaohsiung rally (Comment: given 
the TSU's failure to fulfill its promise to keep the media 
away from its March 4 meeting with AIT, we are skeptical over 
Lee's willingness to hold his fire against Chen based on an 
informal agreement with the DPP.  End Comment.).  Executive 
Yuan (EY) Research, Development, and Evaluation Council 
(RDEC) Vice Minister Chen Chun-lin told AIT that the DPP 
rally will likely be sparsely attended, since the party will 
not activate its mobilization machinery.  TSU Secretary 
General Chen Chien-ming, on the other hand, told AIT his 
party does plan to bus in supporters from around southern 
Taiwan to ensure a respectable turnout. 
 
4. (C) Presidential Office aide Lin You-chang told AIT that 
the Chen administration will keep distance from political and 
NGO activities, but is continuing to review options for how 
to respond when the NPC takes formal action on the proposed 
law.  Lin asserted that a referendum is now off the table 
(Reftel), but he added that some form of Anti-Annexation Law 
is still under consideration, especially if the contents of 
the PRC law are judged to be particularly egregious. 
Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Chief Secretary Jan Jyh-horng 
told AIT that if the government does support an 
Anti-Annexation Law, its contents will be considerably less 
provocative than the draft put forward by the TSU.  Lin 
confirmed Premier Frank Hsieh's recent public announcement 
that the government will temporarily halt further economic 
opening measures due to Beijing's moves over the 
Anti-Secession Law (Septel).  Lin said the timing of 
Beijing's Anti-Secession Law is unfortunate, since the 
political atmosphere in Taiwan supporting cross-Strait 
economic liberalization is the best it has been for many 
years. 
 
All Eyes on President Chen 
-------------------------- 
 
5. (C) Veteran DPP Legislator Hong Chi-chang dismissed 
assertions that there is an outpouring of popular anger over 
the PRC law.  Hong told AIT on March 3 that Taiwan's public 
reaction to the Anti-Secession Law will be largely shaped by 
how President Chen decides to play the issue once the draft 
law's contents are revealed.  Hong cautioned that, based on 
exchanges with authoritative PRC interlocutors during a 
recent (unpublicized) visit to the Mainland, the 
Anti-Secession Law is likely to contain elements that Chen 
could choose to interpret as provocative. 
 
6. (C) National Security Council (NSC) Senior Advisor Lin 
Jin-chang contacted AIT on March 4 on instructions from 
President Chen to report that DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang had 
just informed the President that Su will announce on March 6 
that the DPP will conduct a major anti-annexation rally in 
April if the PRC passes its draft law.  According to Lin, Su 
wanted to announce that the President would attend the DPP's 
April rally and was told that, for the time being, the 
President would prefer not to commit publicly on the issue. 
However, Lin added that if the PRC produces a strongly-worded 
draft, Chen "will have no choice but to respond to the voices 
of the people."  Lin warned that a DPP-led April rally could 
see turnout on the scale of the 2003 Hong Kong anti-Article 
23 demonstrations.  When pressed, Lin said that President 
Chen is likely to lead such an event. 
 
Comment: Rolling Start 
---------------------- 
 
7. (C) TSU mobilization efforts notwithstanding, the March 6 
rallies are likely to be limited in size.  Nevertheless, both 
the Pan-Green parties are clearly gearing up for a sustained 
public campaign against Beijing's proposed law, despite the 
President's instructions for a low-key public posture during 
the period leading up to the NPC debate.  There remains a 
clear divide among Chen's advisors, with some counseling a 
moderate reaction, especially if the PRC law is not overtly 
provocative, and others urging a strong response to any 
movement on the legislation.  Thus far, Chen has managed to 
straddle the fence.  Once the contents of the PRC law are 
revealed, however, Chen will have come down on one side or 
the other, and his decision is likely to guide the tenor and 
volume of Taiwan's response. 
PAAL