US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV1277

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001277 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, KWBG, IS, GOI INTERNAL, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: LIKUD REFERENDUM DECISION STILL LEAVES SHARON 
SHORT ON BUDGET VOTES 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Several Likud MKs demanding that Prime 
Minister Sharon call a referendum on disengagement told 
poloff that the widely anticipated March 3 Likud Central 
Committee (LCC) vote to promote legislation needed to enable 
a referendum is not sufficient to secure their budget votes. 
They say Sharon agreed to hold the non-binding LCC vote on 
this compromise resolution -- which is expected to pass by a 
wide margin -- knowing that a Knesset majority does not 
currently exist for a disengagement referendum.  Knesset 
sources also told Poloff they believe that Sharon cannot 
count on support or abstentions from either Shas or Shinui in 
second and final readings on the budget now set for March 17. 
 Sharon, they say, will have to rely on a combination of 
abstentions and supporting votes from left-wing Yahad and the 
Arab parties to pass the budget if all 13 Likud disengagement 
foes vote against it.  Likud MK and coalition whip Gideon 
Sa'ar, himself a disengagement foe, told the Ambassador March 
3 that he believes the budget will "squeak by."  End summary. 
 
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Likud Rebels Stick to their Guns 
-------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Likud MKs Uzi Landau, Gilad Erdan, and Ehud Yatom, 
all members of the 13-MK anti-disengagement group known as 
"the rebels," told poloff separately March 2 that the 
expected LCC majority for a referendum resolution 
notwithstanding, they will not support the budget unless 
Sharon promises to actually hold a disengagement referendum 
before proceeding with his withdrawal plan.  They dismissed 
LCC action to introduce referendum legislation, saying that 
the legislation cannot win Knesset approval without Sharon's 
active support.  Yatom underlined with bravado that the 
number of Likud rebels will grow, not decrease, in the run-up 
to the budget vote, and called out to Poloff in the Knesset 
corridor that "(the rebels) will bring down (the 
government)."  Landau, nonetheless, equivocated when asked 
whether all of the 13 rebels would adhere to their pledges to 
oppose the budget absent a referendum. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Likud Referendum Resolution: So What? 
------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert downplayed the 
significance of the LCC vote to the Ambassador March 3, but, 
in a separate conversation, Likud MK and disengagement 
opponent Gideon Sa'ar told the Ambassador that "things could 
get interesting" after the LCC vote.  Sa'ar implied that the 
membership of the Knesset Constitution, Law and Justice 
Committee is such that the committee might opt to stir things 
up by quickly drafting referendum legislation that could 
reach the full Knesset for a first reading at the same time 
as the budget vote.  Sa'ar could not say for certain, 
however, whether advancement of such legislation would 
persuade Likud rebels to support the budget.  Despite any 
efforts that may ensue from the LCC vote to promote 
referendum legislation, pundits, Embassy sources -- and the 
rebels -- all agree that a Knesset majority currently does 
not exist for referendum legislation. 
 
4.  (C) Sa'ar also assessed that the budget will "squeak by," 
and noted -- without fully explaining his logic -- that 
Sharon cannot rely on a 61-vote majority, but rather should 
reach for 62-63 votes to withstand the numerous anticipated 
attempts to amend the budget. 
 
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Budget Date Set 
--------------- 
 
5. (C) The Cabinet March 3 set the second and third readings 
on the budget for March 17, with two days of Knesset debate 
before the vote.  Sharon can postpone the vote until the 
final, March 31 deadline for passage if he sees that he still 
lacks a majority.  Sharon can currently count on only some 53 
or 54 MKs to support his budget.  Sharon needs only a simple 
majority, so abstentions are almost as good as votes of 
support.  Shas and Shinui continue to say they will oppose 
the budget with their 11 and 14 votes, respectively, although 
Sharon's negotiators are working to secure either support or 
abstentions from both parties.  Yahad MKs Avshalom Vilan and 
Zehava Gal-On told Poloff March 2 that their party would 
support the budget with at least five votes if it appears, 
close to the vote, that Sharon will not have a majority. 
Several MKs, including Vilan, believe that one or two of the 
Arab parties will provide the remaining votes.  Others 
speculate that several of the Likud rebels will end up 
supporting the budget.  Fewer MKs today than several weeks 
ago are talking about Shinui or Shas coming to Sharon's 
rescue, although Shinui MK Ilan Leibowitch did not rule out 
Shinui abstaining to save disengagement.  Other MKs, such as 
ousted Shinui MK Josef Paritzky, indicated to Poloff that 
they just have a gut sense that Sharon will succeed, somehow. 
 
 
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