US embassy cable - 05PARIS1401

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 001401 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2014 
TAGS: PREL, IZ, FR, SY, LE 
SUBJECT: FRENCH HOSTAGE VIDEO RAISES SPECULATION ON A 
SYRIAN CONNECTION 
 
REF: A. 04 STATE 9098 
     B. 04 STATE 7316 
 
Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, reasons 
1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (SBU) The March 1 release of a videotape showing missing 
French journalist Florence Aubenas pleading for assistance 
from a pro-Syrian French MP has plunged the GoF into its 
second Iraq hostage crisis in recent months and sparked 
widespread French press speculation of a Syria hand in 
Aubenas' kidnapping, in retaliation for French pressure for 
Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon.  The MP in question, Didier 
Julia, is reputed to sympathize with the SARG and the former 
Iraqi regime and is notorious for his failed, apparently 
fraudulent effort to secure the release of former Iraq 
hostages Christian Chesnot and Georges Malbrunot (ref b) in 
October 2004.  Julia and two associates face an ongoing GoF 
judicial investigation "for involvement with a foreign power" 
in pursuing their earlier hostage release scheme, which was 
carried out from Damascus and coincided with the same period 
in which the U.S. and France pursued adoption of UNSCR 1559. 
Aubenas' employer, the French daily "Liberation," speculated 
March 3 that her kidnapping had originally been a criminal 
act, but was "politically hijacked" to pressure President 
Chirac for his insistence on Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon. 
 Meanwhile, UMP Deputy and former GoF anti-terrorism judge 
Alain Marsaud told reporters of his personal conclusion that 
the Aubenas affair represented an "enormous manipulation" on 
Syria's part, and that a Syrian connection to the 
hostage-takers would not be surprising. 
 
2. (SBU) Since Aubenas' disappearance in Baghdad January 5, 
the GoF had been handling her case in a discreet manner,  in 
sharp contrast to the high-level French diplomatic and media 
mobilization which followed the hostage-taking of journalists 
Chesnot and Malbrunot in August 2004 (ref a).   The new 
linkage to Julia has put the GoF on the defensive with few 
other leads to pursue, as press reports suggest the GoF has 
not received any communication or demands from the 
hostage-takers.  Complicating matters further, MP Julia has 
declared his readiness to help secure Aubenas' release if the 
GoF gives him "liberty of action," while adding that he 
"probably knew the hostage-takers," and that they likely 
appreciated his views.  French PM Rafarrin, speaking before 
the National Assembly March 2, called upon Didier to share 
all relevant information on the Aubenas case with the French 
DGSE (CIA-equivalent) and ruled out "parallel diplomacy" on 
anyone else's part.  Rafarrin also confirmed that the March 1 
video was the second tape of Aubenas which the GoF had 
received, said the GoF had been unable to determine the time 
of creation of either tape, or whether images had been 
fabricated.  Rafarrin's public appeal for Didier's 
cooperation has generated some criticism among the French 
Socialist opposition, who assailed the French PM for allowing 
the wayward MP to derail GoF efforts. 
 
3.  (C) Comment: There is no proof of a Syrian connection to 
the Aubenas case, though the Didier Julia angle, lack of 
information on the kidnappers, and timing of the video 
release all raise serious questions.  French officials have 
been tight-lipped on the Aubenas case, referring us to FM 
Barnier and PM Rafarrin's public statements and claiming 
ignorance on further details, particularly the Syria 
connection.  At the same time, we find the same MFA officials 
are being more open than before in describing Syria's 
destabilizing role in Iraq; the MFA DAS-equivalent for 
Iraq/Iran told us March 2 that he had underestimated the 
degree of cooperation between Syrian and Iraqi intelligence 
and the extent of cross-border tribal connections prior to 
the fall of Saddam's regime, and assessed that Syria was 
involved in most of the insurgent activity taking place in 
the western al-Anbar province, "from the border to Ramadi." 
While the Aubenas case means a new headache for the GoF, we 
do not see signs that it is having an effect on the GoF's 
insistence on a full, immediate Syrian pull-out from Lebanon 
or slowing GoF engagement in Iraq, in the way that French 
relations with the IIG were strained by the four-month 
Chesnot/Malbrunot hostage saga.  On the contrary, the Aubenas 
case appears to be further hardening French attitudes towards 
Syria, amid widespread public sympathy and support for the 
"Cedar Revolution."  End comment. 
 
4. (U) Baghdad minimize considered. 
Leach