US embassy cable - 05OTTAWA663

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000663 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, CA, SNAR, MCAP, Missile Defense, Liberal Party 
SUBJECT: CANADA: MISSILE DEFENSE DECISION CLEARS THE WAY 
FOR CONSENSUS AT LIBERAL PARTY CONVENTION 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: Canada,s Liberal Party will hold its 
biennial convention in Ottawa from March 3 to 7.  It will be 
both a policy convention and a review of PM Martin,s 
leadership.  Martin is expected to handily survive the 
review, and with missile defense now out of the way, only the 
Same-Sex Marriage resolution is expected to provoke 
substantial debate.  A marijuana legalization item also made 
its way onto the bottom of the agenda, but is not expected to 
stir much controversy, and in fact beause it is so far down 
the agenda, may not even be discussed before time runs out. 
End Summary 
 
The Delegates 
------------- 
 
2. (SBU) The governing Liberal Party of Canada will hold its 
biennial convention in Ottawa between March 3 and 7.  Select 
riding association members, Parliamentarians, and Ex-Officio 
members of the Liberal Party may attend the convention as 
delegates.  Riding associations can send fourteen delegates, 
but media reports suggest that many have had trouble filling 
their slots due to a lack of interest and the high cost.  A 
Liberal Party official said this week that 2,000 of 5,000 
eligible participants will attend the convention, and 
insisted this was a good number for a convention that is not 
electing a new leader.  Media sources, however, cite Liberal 
insiders as saying the party will be lucky to attract 1,500 
people, and some commentators suggest that because of the 
expected small turnout, debate will be muted and 
uninteresting.  Prime Minister Martin and Liberal Caucus 
Chair MP Andy Savoy are reportedly engaged in a campaign to 
persuade MPs to encourage active participation. 
 
The Leadership Review 
--------------------- 
 
3. (SBU) One key piece of business will be a review of Prime 
Minister Paul Martin,s leadership.  Commentators believe 
that  elite, levels of the party have conspired to allow 
the PM to breeze through his first review by ensuring there 
are no viable alternatives.  National media have nonetheless 
suggested the names of potential leadership candidates, none 
of whom appear interested in interrupting Paul Martin,s term 
as Prime Minister by starting the kind of informal leadership 
campaign that Martin used to unseat Prime Minister Jean 
Chrtien.  Some media commentators take this free-pass 
leadership review as the reason why riding associations 
appear generally disinterested in the process. 
 
The Policy Element 
------------------ 
 
4. (SBU) An ambitious policy agenda features 88 items, but 
the only policy items that are expected to draw notice are 
the Same-Sex Marriage resolution.  There was a growing sense 
that the convention would put Liberal Party divisions on 
display, which is undoubtedly the reason why PM Martin felt 
it necessary to get the missile defense issue off the table. 
The structure of the convention is still somewhat in flux, 
but it appears there will be a series of 12 workshops to 
discuss the 88 items, some of which will receive focus as 
Priority Resolutions. 
 
5. (SBU) The resolution on same-sex marriage was co-sponsored 
by the Liberal Party,s Standing Committee on Policy 
Development, indicating that it came from high levels of the 
Liberal government and the Young Liberals of Canada.  There 
is still significant resistance to same-sex marriage in the 
Liberal caucus and the convention will be a rare opportunity 
for opponents of the plan to speak out against the 
legislation and garner some headlines before debate resumes 
in the House of Commons. 
 
6. (SBU) The Alberta wing of the Liberal Party sponsored a 
call for the complete legalization and taxation of marijuana. 
 National media reports that the University of Calgary Young 
Liberals forced this resolution through the provincial body. 
This resolution is not a priority item and is the last of 
five issues that the Justice and Constitutional Workshop must 
address in one and a half hours, so it is not likely that the 
resolution will pass and it may not even receive much 
attention.  It should be noted, however, that the leader of 
the Marijuana Party of Canada, Marc Boris St-Maurice, 
announced Monday that he would be quitting his party and 
joining the Liberal Party to attend the convention and will 
try to raise the profile of the marginalized resolution and 
marijuana bills before the house. 
 
7. (SBU) Comment:  The missile defense debate was shaping up 
to be a divisive issue in this convention that would have 
highlighted the fissures in the party while possibly leading 
to an embarrassing vote against Canada,s joining the 
program.  And it didn,t help that the most serious opponents 
of the missile defense program are from the Quebec wing of 
the party where Martin needs to make inroads if the Liberals 
are to regain a majority government.  Thus Martin felt he had 
to put this issue to rest before the convention.  This leaves 
only the same-sex marriage issue to underscore the party,s 
divisions, the debate over which will be filled with tension, 
but manageable.  If well-handled, it could even reduce the 
&democratic deficit,8 one of Martin,s key campaign 
promises.  Though media commentary suggests a disconnect 
between Liberal Elites and the party grassroots on the 
question of the leadership review, at the policy level it 
appears that the grassroots are active in promoting their 
agendas.  End Comment 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
CELLUCCI