US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK1528

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001528 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/BCLTV, S/CT. US PACOM FOR FPA (HUSO) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PTER, TH, Southern Thailand 
SUBJECT: THAILAND: SOUTH DEVELOPMENTS UPDATE, MARCH 2, 2005 
 
REF: BANGKOK 1375 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Clarke.  Reason: 1.4(d) 
 
1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  The Thai Government has moved rapidly 
away from Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's controversial 
plan to allocate economic assistance based on the color coded 
security ratings of villages in the southern border 
provinces.  In the face of broad condemnation of the zoning 
scheme, and with serious violence still occurring on a daily 
basis, Thaksin is now focusing on creation of a National 
Reconciliation Commission (NRC), headed by former Prime 
Minister Anand Panyarachun.  Separately, 25 Members of 
Parliament, tasked by Thaksin to seek solutions to the 
southern crisis, made a one day visit to the south.  Southern 
Muslims are skeptical about the purposes of the visit. 
Finally, a public speech by Privy Councilor Prem, during 
which he urged the government to follow a "royal approach" to 
the south, appears to have gotten Thaksin's attention.  END 
SUMMARY 
 
NO "ZONES" IN THE SOUTH AFTER ALL, INSTEAD "RECONCILIATION" 
 
2.  (SBU)  Prime Minister Thaksin appears to be retreating 
quickly from his February 16 announcement that the RTG would 
cut off government funding for "red" zone villages which the 
government believed were supporting militants because of a 
high level of violence in surrounding areas.  The plan has 
been roundly criticized in Thailand for its potential to 
further alienate the local population in the deep South.  In 
an apparent attempt to back away from the announced program 
Thaksin's spokesman, Jakrapob Penkair, told the media on 
February 25 that the allocation or denial of assistance funds 
based on the classification of villages into green, yellow 
and red zones was merely a "concept," and not yet a policy. 
3.  (U)  The zoning scheme dropped out of the news when the 
Thaksin administration sharply shifted its focus to creation 
of a National Reconciliation Commission (NRC) to look for 
ways to address the conflict in the south.  On February 28, 
Thaksin announced that the government was establishing a 
30-member commission to examine long-term solutions to the 
crisis.  Thaksin tapped former prime minister Anand 
Panyarachun to lead the commission.  (Note: Anand is one of 
the most respected public figures in Thailand.  He was twice 
appointed interim prime minister in 1991-92 during the 
political crisis stemming from the 1991 coup. He recently 
chaired a UN High-level Commission on Reform.  End Note.) 
Thaksin said he wanted a diverse group of participants on the 
commission, even naming several of the most vocal critics of 
his southern policy as possible members. 
 
4.  (U)  Anand is now recruiting commission members.  The 
panel will reportedly include representatives from state 
agencies, academia, NGOs, politicians (including members of 
the opposition Democratic Party) and religious leaders. 
Anand will serve as the NRC Chairman with Bavornasak Uvanno, 
a close Thaksin confidant and current cabinet secretary 
general, serving as the NRC's secretary-general.  Other 
possible commission members who have been discussed include 
the noted social critic Dr. Prawase Wasi; Phiphop Thongchai, 
a prominent human rights activist; and Surichai Wankaew, 
Chairman of the NGO Campaign for Popular Democracy. 
 
5.  (SBU)  The opposition Democrat Party (DP) has taken a 
cooperative stance towards the creation of the commission. 
Abhisit Vejjajiva, who has taken the reigns of the party 
following the DPs drubbing at the polls during the February 6 
nationwide elections, confirmed that his party would be 
willing to cooperate with the NRC.  Abhisit told visiting NIO 
Dr. James Shinn and Poloff on March 2 that he expected former 
Prime Minister Anand would play an important role in solving 
the southern problem and said that he was looking for more 
details on the commission's structure, membership, and 
mission.  Former Prime Minister and DP elder statesman Chuan 
Leekpai also welcomed the commission, offering his 
cooperation. 
 
PARLIAMENT TAKES ON THE SOUTH 
 
6.  (U)  Thaksin also dispatched 25 Thai Rak Thai (TRT) MPs, 
under the leadership of Deputy Prime Minister Suwat 
Liptaphanlop, to the southernmost provinces of Yala, Pattani, 
and Narathiwat for a one-day fact-finding trip on February 
28.  The Thaksin plan assigns one MP to each of the 25 
districts in the deep south so the MP can learn in depth 
about local concerns of the populace in his assigned 
district.  Locals have greeted the visit of the MPs with 
skepticism.  In a typical reaction, Mimanase Sama-ari, Vice 
Chairman of the Young Muslim Association of Thailand, called 
the one-day southern trip a publicity stunt and a waste of 
time. 
 
7.  (U)  Meanwhile, a Thaksin spokesman confirmed that a 
extraordinary joint session of the House of Representatives 
and the Senate (reftel) will take place March 30-31.  The 
rare session, which will focus exclusively on the South, has 
been welcomed by pro-democracy activists as an opportunity to 
publicly discuss the government's policy. 
 
PRIVY COUNCIL TAKES PUBLIC ROLE ON SOUTH 
 
8.  (U)  During a February 28 conference at the prestigious 
Thammasat University General Prem Tinsulanonda, president of 
the Privy Council and former prime minister, called for the 
government to follow the King's advice on dealing with the 
south.  Prem urged the Thaksin government to follow the rule 
of law, and called for better understanding of the southern 
population.  Privy Councilor Kasem Wattanachai also spoke at 
the same conference, echoing Prem's remarks.  Kasem called on 
the government to head the King's advice, and work on 
improving the lives and livelihoods of the people in the 
south.  On March 1 Prime Minister Thaksin had a closed door 
50 minute "courtesy call" meeting with General Prem.  Thaksin 
did not comment on the specifics of the meeting, saying 
publicly that he and the Privy Councilor had only discussed 
general issues, and had not focused on any specific issues. 
 
9.  (C)  Comment:  It is not surprising that Thaksin is 
backing away from his ill-conceived plan to punish or reward 
"zones" in the south given widespread condemnation of the 
idea.  Once again, he is demonstrating how agile a politician 
he can be in the face of opposition.  However, it remains 
unclear whether these latest replacement initiatives are just 
maneuvering or amount to a real attempt to consider different 
options for the South.  Despite the selection of former Prime 
Minister Anand, one of the most respected public figures in 
Thailand, to head the National Reconciliation Commission, the 
prospects that the Commission will come up with anything too 
new or original for the South are mixed.  Anand himself has 
said his views on how to end the violence do not differ 
greatly from the government's.  And Thaksin loyalist 
Bavornask Uvanno is in the other NRC leadership position. 
Nevertheless, if the NRC final membership is extended to real 
critics of Thaksin's southern strategy, they may be able to 
force a new consensus.  Local southern skepticism over the 
involvement of outsider members of parliament in the South 
seems warranted.  It is unlikely that the 25 TRT MPs, the 
majority of whom come from the majority Buddhist north of the 
country, will be able to relate sufficiently rapidly and 
sincerely to the culture and concerns of southerners.  Their 
expressed desire to help is already being dismissed by many 
Southerners as a political gesture.  Of greater interest are 
the public statements by the two members of the Privy 
Council.  Prem's comments in particular deserve attention as 
they likely represent direct concern from the Palace over the 
government's hard-line southern policy.  End Comment. 
BOYCE