US embassy cable - 05WARSAW1126

UNCLAS WARSAW 001126 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINR, PL, Polish Elections 
SUBJECT: POLISH PREMIER WEIGHS JOINING NEW PARTY, PREDICTS 
JUNE ELECTIONS -- STATEMENT POSSIBLE MARCH 3 
 
REF: WARSAW 1081 
 
1. (SBU) In an interview published March 2, Polish Prime 
Minister Marek Belka signaled that he is considering an offer 
to join a new, centrist political party (the "Democratic 
Party," or PD) being formed by the liberal Freedom Union 
(UW), disaffected politicians from the governing SLD, and 
other centrists.  Belka suggested that he is leaning toward 
such a decision, which he allowed would add to a "domino 
effect" already underway that could alter Poland's political 
landscape in advance of upcoming parliamentary and 
presidential elections.  Belka reiterated his determination 
to hold parliamentary elections in June, in defiance of his 
(nominal) party's leadership, whom he characterized as 
pursuing a strategy of "waiting for death."  Belka indicated 
that he would prefer to avoid forcing early elections through 
resignation (with no majority support in parliament for him 
or any other potential PM candidate, Belka's resignation 
would set in motion futile rounds of voting that would 
ultimately trigger new elections), although this is clearly 
an option should the parliament not agree to dissolve itself 
at a scheduled May 5 vote. 
 
2. (SBU) Belka stated that he will give himself six weeks to 
make a decision (precisely the time PD founders have allowed 
themselves to launch their new party), but already pressure 
is building on him to clarify his position, with SLD leader 
Jozef Oleksy insisting publicly on a clear "yes" or "no" from 
the prime minister.  Belka is widely expected to address his 
plans at a speaking event March 3 (his spokesman announced 
that Belka will make "an important political announcement" at 
that forum), but the prime minister remains 
characteristically cautious, and he is not likely to make any 
definitive pronouncements before he feels he needs to do so. 
With others in the SLD poised to break ranks as well (Belka 
all but predicted that Parliamentary Speaker Wlodzimierz 
Cimoszewicz will form yet another leftist formation, perhaps 
in collaboration with the SLD-breakaway SdPl) and SLD members 
determined to hang on to their seats for as long as possible, 
the SLD may not wish to press the issue if Belka decides to 
bide his time. 
 
3. (SBU) Comment: Belka will almost certainly leave the SLD, 
and, with his implied threat of resignation, prospects for 
June parliamentary elections are now much stronger.  What 
remains less certain is the eventual appeal (or even 
feasibility) of a union of liberals and disgruntled social 
democrats, to what degree Belka will associate himself with 
that party, and how these new formations (e.g., the PD, a new 
leftist group, and possibly even a new, far-right Catholic 
party) will affect the outcome of parliamentary elections, if 
significantly at all.  From Belka's perspective, 
disassociating himself from the SLD and keeping his options 
open make good political sense, particularly if -- as is 
assumed -- he harbors presidential ambitions. 
ASHE