US embassy cable - 05ABUDHABI1002

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ABU DHABI 001002 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ARPI, NEA/PI, AND DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2015 
TAGS: KDEM, PGOV, KMPI, TC 
SUBJECT: DISCUSSION OF POLITICAL REFORM IN UAE STARTS TO 
PERCOLATE 
 
REF: A. ABU DHABI 908 
     B. 04 ABU DHABI 3210 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Summary: The UAE is now the only state in the Gulf 
without elected bodies.  However, discussion is starting to 
percolate in the UAE media and in private settings about the 
potential for political reforms in the country, including the 
possibility of holding elections at the local and federal 
levels, and allowing women to serve in a strengthened federal 
representative body.  Information Minister Sheikh Abdullah 
bin Zayed told the Ambassador on March 2 that the Federal 
Supreme Council (composed of the rulers of the seven 
emirates) would in the near future discuss representational 
government.  In February, the Ruler of the emirate of Sharjah 
appointed municipal councils and announced that these 
councils could one day be elected.  Ajman emirate is 
considering establishing a consultative council, though it 
has not gone as far as suggesting that it would be elected. 
Some observers believe these developments in Sharjah and 
Ajman could be a prelude to eventual changes at the Federal 
National Council (FNC), which remains an appointed body 
without real legislative power. 
 
2. (C) Summary continued:  Elections in Iraq, the West Bank 
and Gaza, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman have 
contributed significantly to the current discussion about 
reforms in the UAE.  However, UAE nationals are adamant that 
change is unacceptable if imposed by outsiders.  Federal 
elections, if and when they occur, would almost certainly not 
affect senior posts, such as president, vice president, and 
prime minister, all of which are held by members of Abu 
Dhabi,s and Dubai,s ruling families.  End Summary. 
 
CALLS FOR REPRESENTATIVE GOVERNMENT... 
-------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) In the past few weeks, there has been a lively public 
discussion, widely reported in the media, about the need for 
democratic reforms in the UAE.  Led by newspaper columnists 
and academics, and even live talk shows on Dubai TV, the 
debate about reform is being fueled by political developments 
elsewhere in the region, including democratic elections in 
Iraq, the West Bank and Gaza, and the Gulf, and growing 
opposition to Syria,s continued military occupation of 
Lebanon.  &With elections being held in Saudi Arabia, the 
UAE will be the only country in the region that does not have 
elections,8 Saeed Hareb, vice chancellor for community 
affairs and law professor at the UAE University in Al Ain, 
told Pol Chief on February 28.  &It is strange that Iraqis 
were registering and voting in the UAE for their country,s 
election, and yet UAE citizens do not have the right to 
vote,8 Hareb said.  A constitutional scholar, Hareb said he 
often reminds his law students and others that the 
introduction to the UAE Constitution makes clear the UAE 
founding fathers, commitment to democracy (the Constitution 
preamble states that the Constitution should be used to 
&move forward toward comprehensive democratic parliamentary 
governance, in an Arab Islamic society free of fear and 
worry8). 
 
4. (C) In the midst of this debate about political reform, 
Sheikh Sultan bin Mohammed Al Qasimi, the Ruler of Sharjah 
emirate, announced February 22 the formation of nine 
appointed municipal councils in Sharjah, and added that these 
councils were a prelude to direct municipal elections (Dubai 
septel to follow).  Within days, Ajman emirate announced it 
was considering establishing a consultative council. 
&Sheikh Sultan threw a stone in the lake and now we are 
seeing the waves,8 Dr. Sulaiman Al Jassim, an Abu Dhabi 
academic and political observer, told Pol Chief February 28. 
Brigadier Saeed Juma Al Qasimi, former director of the Al Ain 
Civil Defense Department, praised Sharjah,s ruler, calling 
the decision to have municipal councils in Sharjah &a good 
step, whereas having them via elections in the future 
reflects the Ruler,s vision and wisdom.8  Brig. Al Qasimi 
said he hoped the other emirates would follow Sharjah,s 
initiative. 
 
5. (C) Information Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed told 
the Ambassador on March 2 that the Supreme Council, which 
comprises the seven rulers of the emirates and is the highest 
federal authority in the UAE, would be meeting in the near 
future to discuss representational government.  The rulers of 
Fujairah and Ajman have paid calls on President Khalifa bin 
Zayed in recent days, a pattern similar to what we saw ahead 
of last November,s Cabinet reshuffle.  These consultations 
with the other emirates could be a sign that Abu Dhabi,s 
ruling Al Nahyan family is launching the slow process of 
building a consensus on opening up the political space. 
 
...GO BACK THREE DECADES 
------------------------ 
 
6. (C) The idea of electing public officials is not new in 
the UAE.  In the 1970s, Ajman emirate had several councils 
whose heads were elected by the general public.  Before his 
father replaced him as his heir apparent in June 2003, Ras Al 
Khaimah Crown Prince Sheikh Khalid bin Saqr Al Qasimi had 
openly suggested that UAE citizens be allowed to vote for FNC 
members.  (Note: Some analysts believe that Sheikh Khalid,s 
outspoken support of the idea of political liberalization was 
a factor in his father,s decision to remove him from the 
succession line.  End note.)  Nevertheless, Sheikh Saud, who 
replaced Sheikh Khalid as Crown Prince, told Ambassador 
February 28 that he and his elderly father (Sheikh Saqr bin 
Mohammed Al Qasimi) were not opposed to the idea of municipal 
elections, and viewed the need to broaden the political space 
in the context of the new generation of Emiratis.  Sheikh 
Saud said he believed it was a good idea to allow smaller 
emirates like Ajman and Sharjah demonstrate first what &they 
could do8 with elections.  Elections of FNC members will be 
held one day as well, he predicted, without suggesting a 
timeframe.  In April 2003, Dubai had announced its intent to 
establish elected district councils, but, as reported Ref. B, 
Dubai,s Al Maktoum leadership quietly dropped the idea amid 
concerns about the possible effect on stability that a direct 
election, even a local one, might have.  Mohammed Al Abbar, 
CEO of Dubai,s top real estate development company, told DCM 
February 20 that the Dubai leadership had not laid the 
groundwork for elections )- either within Dubai or with Abu 
Dhabi. 
 
CHANGE IS NEEDED, BUT IT TAKES TIME 
----------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) &This talk of elections in our country is not new,8 
said Dr. Yousef Al Hassan, director of the Institute for 
Diplomatic Studies at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told 
Pol Chief February 23.  Al Hassan, who supports the idea of 
opening up the political space as long as it is not done in 
haste, encouraged USG officials to raise democracy in their 
ongoing dialogue with UAEG officials, but in the context of 
what is happening elsewhere in the region.  &Don,t impose 
anything on the UAE.  Just talk to the rulers about what,s 
taking place in Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, and they 
will get the message,8 Al Hassan said.  Academic Al Jassim 
agreed with this approach.  &We love our rulers.  They take 
care of us.  And they want change.  But all of us want the 
change to be homegrown so that we can take ownership of it,8 
he said. 
 
8. (C) UAE University,s Saeed Hareb also counseled against 
pressing too rapidly for reforms.  &It,s like medicine. 
You have to give it in small doses.8  At the same time, the 
UAE leadership would be unwise to prevent political reform, 
since that would risk forcing any opposition &underground.8 
 The rulers of the UAE also know that if they grant people,s 
wishes too quickly, the citizens will demand even more, he 
said.  He stressed the importance of offering civic education 
not only to school students but to community groups as well. 
&It is important to plant the seeds of democracy at an early 
age8 as a way to prepare Emiratis to assume their 
responsibilities, Hareb added.  Writing in the 
semi-government Arabic daily Al Ittihad on February 16, 
journalist Mohammed Al Hammadi makes the case that while the 
sheikhs may be taking care of the population today, everyone 
needs to think about, and prepare for, the future.  Elections 
can be a vehicle for ensuring the broadest possible 
representation in society, he said, and should not be viewed 
as a &forbidden8 activity.  &It,s better to arrive late 
than not at all,8 he writes.  The UAE can learn from the 
experiences of other countries.  When Pol Chief commented 
favorably to Al Hammadi on February 28 on his weekly column 
in which he discusses democratization, Al Hammadi replied 
that he writes what he wants -- except for criticism of the 
ruling families. 
 
A FAVORITE TARGET: THE FEDERAL NATIONAL COUNCIL 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
9.  (C) When academics and journalists talk about reforming 
the UAE Government and introducing elections, the FNC is the 
institution they most focus on.  The FNC,s 40 members are 
appointed by the Rulers of the seven emirates, with numbers 
allocated in proportion to their population, to serve 
two-year terms.  This federal institution has little more 
than a consultative function, since it can review and amend, 
but not block legislation proposed by the federal Council of 
Ministers.  However, as we have witnessed firsthand, 
ministers can be called before the FNC for questions on their 
performance.  For some older generation Emiratis like Awad Al 
Otaiba, a senior official in the Ministry of Energy, the very 
fact that FNC members can grill ministers is proof enough 
that constituents have a voice.  &We already have 
democracy,8 he asserted to Pol Chief February 24.  But most 
academics and journalists expressing their views about the 
FNC of late believe the existing &parliament8 does not 
represent the public at large. 
 
10. (C) Ali Jassim Ahmed, an FNC member from Umm Al Qaiwain 
emirate, told Pol Chief March 1 that there had been six draft 
proposals for amending the UAE Constitution to change the way 
FNC members were selected, but that there were &certain 
parties,8 including conservative elements in UAE society, 
who were not in favor of change.  &It is good to start 
talking about elections.  We hope that this will succeed.8 
He was one of several FNC members and staff who traveled to 
the United States last September on a Special International 
Visitor program to observe democratic bodies at the state and 
federal level.  Academic Sulaiman Al Jassim said that the 
role of the FNC should be strong and effective in order for 
federal institutions to be stronger than local ones. 
 
11. (C) The FNC was established in 1972, and its members are 
distributed as follows: Abu Dhabi and Dubai ) 8 members 
each, Sharjah and Ras Al Khaimah ) 6 members each, Umm Al 
Qaiwain, Ajman, and Fujairah ) 4 members each.  The UAE 
Constitution states that the selection of members is up to 
each ruler.  None of our contacts, whether journalists, 
academics, or FNC members themselves, believes that 
individual emirates will step out of line and start selecting 
members in a manner different from the other emirates.  &You 
can,t fly with one wing,8 said UAE University,s Hareb. 
The consensus is that the FNC either will remain an appointed 
body, or it will become an elected body with the consent of 
all the rulers.  Federal elections, if and when they occur, 
would almost certainly not affect senior posts, such as 
president, vice president, and prime minister, all of which 
are traditionally held by members of Abu Dhabi,s and 
Dubai,s ruling families. 
 
12. (C) In a February 22 op-ed in Al Khaleej newspaper, UAE 
University professor Dr. Abdulkhaleq Abdullah described the 
current practice of appointing FNC members as 
&anachronistic.8  He criticized the FNC for failing to 
adapt to changes and for not representing public sentiments 
adequately (ref A).  The FNC comes under fire even from 
within its ranks because it cannot propose a law.  Its role 
is to discuss draft laws submitted to it; the government can 
pass any law even if it is rejected unanimously by the FNC. 
Dr. Habib Al Mulla, an FNC member from Dubai, called for the 
FNC to have the power to propose laws and discuss public 
issues without permission from the Cabinet, according to 
quotes attributed to him by the Gulf News.  (Al Mulla 
subsequently told CG Dubai that he had been embarrassed by 
the article;  he declined to elaborate further.)  Mohammed 
bin Ali Al Nagbi, an FNC member from Ras Al Khaimah, told 
Khaleej Times newspaper that he was against the idea of an 
election, but he said he would support it as long as the idea 
came from within and was not imposed in response to external 
pressure. 
 
HOW LONG WILL THE FNC REMAIN CLOSED TO WOMEN? 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
13. (C) Opinion is divided on the question of whether to 
allow women to become FNC members.  Some conservatives and 
Islamists do not support opening up membership to women. 
Moderate and liberal academics and journalists blame the 
conservatives for excluding women to date, despite repeated 
calls by Sheikha Fatima (the widow of the late President 
Sheikh Zayed) urging a greater role for women in the 
political arena.  That said, the stock answer we get from 
most quarters when asked when women will finally be admitted 
to the FNC is that &things take time8 in the UAE; in any 
event, the decision on whether to appoint women will lie with 
the individual rulers, some of whom have indicated that they 
intend to do so when the opportunity next arises.  Al Ittihad 
newspaper,s Al Hammadi, who covered the FNC for six years, 
said the institution is definitely in need of change, but 
acknowledged that change is likely to be slow in coming.  He 
predicted that women would have to wait at least another year 
before one of the emirates, rulers appoints them to a seat. 
 
14. (C) General Women,s Union director general, Noura Al 
Suweidi, has told us that about a year before Sheikh Zayed 
died, her organization had submitted a list of women 
candidates to him for his consideration.  There has been no 
action taken since.  The possibility of women being appointed 
to the FNC is still &talk, promises, and aspiration,8 
lamented Ahlam Al Lamki, director of research and studies at 
the General Women,s Union, when Pol Assistant asked her 
March 1 about the issue of including women in the FNC.  She 
said the women,s organization had hoped that women would 
have been appointed by the time the new session starts this 
spring, but that has not happened. 
 
15. (C) A number of our contacts spoke of a quota of FNC 
seats being set aside for women, with Hareb stating that he 
had heard that a one-third quota of seats might be under 
consideration.  A quota for women would guarantee them seats 
in the legislative body, something that the current system of 
appointments, or a potential general election, would not. 
The General Women,s Union,s Al Lamki told us that the 
organization had not heard of a proposal for a quota for 
women members.  (Note: Seven women serve on the Sharjah 
Consultative Council, which advises the Sharjah Ruler, and 
two women are among the 88 members of the new municipal 
councils.  Women do not serve on any of the other emirates, 
governing or consultative bodies.  End note.) 
 
16. (C) Our contacts told us that Sheikha Lubna Al Qassimi,s 
appointment last November as Minister of Economy and Planning 
was highly significant for women.  Besides providing a role 
model for other UAE women, Sheikha Lubna,s appointment paves 
the way for women who aspire to careers in government. 
&There are many Sheikha Lubnas out there,8 asserted Saeed 
Hareb of UAE University.  &At UAE University, 90 percent of 
my female colleagues are better than men,8 he added. 
Academic Al Jassim said that women and men should participate 
side by side.  Women are educated, and they have a 
ministerial position, so why shouldn,t they join the FNC as 
well as other federal institutions? he asked. 
 
Comment: 
------- 
 
17. (C) The pace of political reform in the UAE is slow.  We 
don,t expect change will happen soon.  Abu Dhabi Crown 
Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed told the Ambassador 
September 16 that the UAE had hired a U.S. consultant to 
explore ways the country could broaden the political 
participation of its citizenry.  The debate about political 
reform among academics and journalists is under way, and this 
first step is a positive development.  The government is 
doing the right thing by allowing broad )- and critical -- 
media coverage.  Post will seek to advance this nascent 
process and MEPI political reform goals through civil society 
support, NGO strengthening, legislative staff training, 
equipping women with skills and techniques to use in advocacy 
and electoral campaigns, developing an independent media, 
and, eventually, elections assistance. 
SISON