US embassy cable - 02KATHMANDU768

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000768 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NP, Government of Nepal (GON) 
SUBJECT: ATTEMPTS TO OUST PM APPARENTLY ON HOLD 
 
REF: A. (A) KATHMANDU 731 
 
     B. (B) KATHMANDU 657 
 
Classified By: AMB. MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI.  REASON:  1.5 (B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  Ongoing attempts by former Prime Minister and Nepali 
Congress Party President Girija Prasad Koirala to topple the 
current Prime Minister, Sher Bahadur Deuba, appear to be on 
hold for the time being.  According to the Indian Ambassador, 
PM Vajpayee, Minister for External Affairs Singh, Home 
Minister Advani, Defense Minister Fernandes and the BJP 
President had each discouraged Koirala during his current 
visit from pursuing a no-confidence motion.  In an April 17 
meeting with Nepali Congress Party General Secretary (and 
Koirala cousin) Sushil Koirala, the Ambassador stressed the 
importance of a united political front to face down the 
threat from the Maoist insurgency.  Sushil Koirala seemed to 
take the message on board--albeit somewhat grudgingly--and 
did not raise the subject of a change in government. 
Although G.P. Koirala may be dissuaded for now, he can be 
counted on to resume his machinations against Deuba the next 
opportunity he sees.  End summary. 
 
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NEW DELHI SAID TO NIX KOIRALA CAMPAIGN 
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2.  (C)  Indian Ambassador to Nepal Singh told Ambassador 
Malinowski April 17 that Prime Minister Vajpayee, Minister 
for External Affairs Singh, Defense Minister Fernandes, Home 
Minister Advani, and the BJP President had each told former 
Nepali Prime Minister and current Nepali Congress Party 
President Girija Prasad Koirala, in New Delhi for a visit, to 
desist from efforts to topple his long-time rival, current 
Nepali PM Sher Bahadur Deuba.  Ambassador Singh said G.P. 
seemed to have got the unambiguous message that the Indians 
would not support a change in government at the present and 
expected him to stand down. 
 
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NC GENERAL SECRETARY CALL ON AMBASSADOR 
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3.  (C) On April 17 Nepali Congress General Secretary (and 
G.P. cousin) Sushil Koirala called on Ambassador Malinowski 
at the Residence.  Commending the April 15 all-party meeting 
that resulted in a unanimous decision to oppose the April 
23-27 Maoist general strike, the Ambassador stressed the 
importance of party unity at this time of national crisis. 
(Note:  Party leaders--including leaders of the Nepali 
Congress--had boycotted an earlier all-party meeting called 
by Deuba on March 27. End note.)  Of course all political 
parties have differences and disagreements, the Ambassador 
observed; thus it is especially heartening to see the parties 
overcome these differences and stand united on this important 
issue.  The USG fully recognizes the challenges before Nepal 
and wants to be helpful; the Embassy has asked for a package 
of security and development assistance to help Nepal overcome 
the threat from the insurgency.  While we are pushing to get 
this assistance in Washington, it is good to know the 
political parties are doing what they can to help their own 
country in its hour of need, the Ambassador concluded. 
 
 
4.  (C)  Koirala said the Nepali Congress has been the main 
target of Maoist aggression becaue it has always been the 
champion of democracy.  Only his party has organized all of 
the district party chairmen to oppose the Maoists, Koirala 
claimed.  Why then should the Army Chief single out only 
Deuba and "a few young ministers" as the only ones helping 
the Army to stand up to the Maoists (Ref B).  Koirala said he 
viewed the Army Chief's public comments as highly worrisome, 
especially in light of the Army's historical role in backing 
the Palace against the Nepali Congress in its early struggle 
to bring democracy to Nepal.  Did the Army Chief's comments 
signal some darker intention?  The Ambassador said both the 
military leadership, including the Army Chief, and the King 
had underscored to him on a number of occasions their respect 
for the Constitution. The Army has no intention of staging a 
coup, the Ambassador said; to do so would cost them not only 
the support of the Nepali public but of foreign donors as 
well.  In the continuing series of conversations with the 
Palace, government and security forces, the U.S. has always 
stressed the need for all to abide by the Constitution and to 
respect human rights. 
5.  (C)  Why are foreign donors so supportive of Deuba? 
Koirala asked, adding he could not recall any previous PM 
receiving similar support.  The Ambassador replied that 
friends of Nepal are committed to helping the country through 
this crisis.  Nepal's friends support the government's effort 
and commitment to overcome this crisis, rather than a 
particular individual.  He recalled during his previous 
tenure as DCM and Charge in Nepal the USG working closely 
with then-PM G.P. Koirala to give disaster relief assistance 
in the wake of  especially destructive and unprecedented 
flooding.  He also reminded Sushil Koirala of the help he and 
other foreign emissaries had provided G.P. in countering a 
series of violent bandhs in the early 1990s and in brokering 
a rapprochement between G.P. and the major opposition party. 
Neither the U.S. Embassy or the Ambassador himself is "for" 
or "against" any particular political personality, he 
emphasized; we support the democratically elected leader, 
whoever it is, attempting to lead Nepal out of this crisis. 
Koirala thanked the Ambassador for his views and left without 
raising a possible change in government. 
 
6.  (C)  The Ambassador went over the same ground he went 
over with Sushil Koirala in an April 18 meeting with Nepali 
Congress MP and former Minister of Commerce and Health Ram 
Krishna Tamarakar, a long-time G.P. ally.  Tamarakar, who 
also is very close to Sushil Koirala, had sought a meeting 
with the Ambassador, perhaps at the request of G.P. 
 
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COMMENT 
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7.  (C) The message should be crystal clear to Koirala and 
his cohorts by now that a move to change PMs would not be 
welcomed by the Palace; the Army; the donors; Nepal's 
neighbor and largest trading partner, India; and, probably, 
nearly half of the Nepali Congress Party.  (Sushil Koirala's 
visit to the Ambassador was preceded immediately by a call on 
the soon-to-be-departing British Ambassador, who, he told us, 
delivered a similar message in rather forceful tones.  This 
may in part explain Sushil's reticence during his 
conversation with Amb. Malinowski.)  India's input, if as 
reported, will likely prove critical in persuading G.P. 
Koirala to hold off on his campaign for now.  We don't, 
however, expect him to be dissuaded for long.  National 
crisis or not, at the earliest opportunity--and he always 
finds one--we expect G.P. to resume his chronic scheming to 
regain the post of prime minister. 
MALINOWSKI