US embassy cable - 05TEGUCIGALPA454

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEGUCIGALPA 000454 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/EPSC, EB/TPP, DRL/IL, and INR/IAA 
STATE PASS USTR 
STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAM 
DOL FOR ILAB 
GUATEMALA FOR AGATT SHUETE 
TREASURY FOR DDOUGLASS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ETRD, ECON, PGOV, ELAB, HO 
SUBJECT: With Primary Elections Over, CAFTA-DR Goes to 
Honduran Congress for Ratification 
 
REF: 04 Tegucigalpa 2757 and previous 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  With national primary elections over, the 
Maduro administration is pushing for a quick ratification of 
CAFTA-DR by the Honduran Congress.  According to the 
Congressman in charge of the CAFTA-DR special commission, 
CAFTA-DR is on the legislative agenda for the afternoon of 
Tuesday, March 1, though it could be days or even weeks 
before it comes to a vote.  President Maduro has said 
privately that he hopes ratification will take place this 
week, but is sure that it will happen at the latest by the 
end of the month.  The winning presidential candidates in 
the two main parties (National and Liberal) both support 
CAFTA-DR.  End summary. 
 
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CAFTA-DR on the Legislative Calendar for March 1 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
2. (SBU) As reported reftel, the Maduro administration 
submitted a decree for approval of CAFTA-DR to Congress in 
late October 2004, and then pushed for ratification during 
the year's final Congressional session in December. 
However, Congressional leaders strongly resisted bringing 
the agreement to a vote, principally because many 
Congressmen did not want to have to vote on CAFTA-DR so soon 
before the February 20 national primary elections.  No push 
was made to bring CAFTA-DR to a vote in the last weeks of 
the 2004 legislative year (which stretched into January 
2005) or in the first few weeks of the 2005 legislative year 
(January or February). 
 
3. (SBU) According to Roberto Contreras, the National Party 
Congressman who heads the Special CAFTA-DR Commission in 
Congress, discussion of CAFTA-DR is currently scheduled for 
2 p.m. on the afternoon of March 1.  At that time the 
Special CAFTA-DR Commission will present its report on the 
importance of the agreement to Congress, and Dr. Mario 
Contreras, Executive Director of the Pan-American School of 
Agriculture at Zamorano, will also speak on the benefits of 
CAFTA-DR for Honduras.  (Comment: The strongest opposition 
to CAFTA-DR in Honduras has come from those who fear that 
the agreement will be bad for poor Honduran farmers.  Labor 
unions are also united in their opposition.  End comment.) 
 
4. (SBU) Any bill normally goes through three readings in 
Congress before it can be brought to a vote, to allow 
Congressmen to propose changes and amendments.  Since CAFTA- 
DR cannot be edited or amended, officials have told us, the 
administration might seek to dispense with the first and 
second readings and instead proceed directly to a third 
reading and a vote. 
 
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Maduro: Hopefully This Week, Definitely This Month 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
5. (SBU) Speaking with A/DCM on February 26, President 
Maduro said that he is optimistic that the Honduran Congress 
would ratify Congress this week (February 28 to March 4), 
and that it would certainly do so before the end of March. 
He expressed the hope that the U.S. Congress would ratify 
CAFTA-DR this spring, hopefully in April, and that Honduran 
ratification would lend some momentum to the process of U.S. 
ratification.  He stressed that CAFTA-DR is a key to 
Honduras' economic development, and a major component of the 
broad strategy of regional economic integration toward which 
his administration has been working. 
 
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Comment: This Time We Mean It 
----------------------------- 
 
6. (SBU) Comment: If the past is any guide, President Maduro 
is perhaps being too optimistic at the speed with which the 
Honduran Congress will act on CAFTA-DR.  After all, in early 
December 2004, Maduro announced publicly to an international 
audience at an event in Miami that the Honduran Congress 
would ratify CAFTA-DR before the end of the year, and he was 
wrong -- CAFTA-DR did reach the floor of Congress for one 
day of discussion in December, but then was promptly 
shelved.  This time, however, with the most significant 
political impediment (the primary elections) in the past, 
and the winning presidential candidates in the two main 
parties (National and Liberal) both supporting CAFTA-DR, a 
vote in the near future seems increasingly likely.  (In 
fact, the victorious National Party presidential candidate, 
Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo, is the President of Congress.) 
Despite the delay in bringing the approval decree to a vote, 
administration officials continue to confidently predict 
that there is sufficient support in Congress to ratify the 
agreement.  End comment. 
 
Palmer