US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI1546

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 001546 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/B 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, PINR, MOPS, KNNP, IN, PK, INDO-PAK 
SUBJECT: MEA CAUTIOUSLY UPBEAT ON INDO-PAK 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 1282 
     B. NEW DELHI 1480 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: In a February 28 conversation with PolCouns 
and Poloff, outgoing MEA Joint Secretary (Pakistan, 
Afghanistan, Iran) Arun K Singh was generally upbeat about 
short-term Indo-Pak rapprochement, and expressed cautious 
optimism about long-term sustainability of this trend.  After 
sharing impressions from his recent trip to Islamabad with 
Foreign Minister Natwar Singh, Singh sketched out a fairly 
ambitious but realistic diplomatic agenda for the Spring, 
which will culminate in a meeting between the two Foreign 
Secretaries in July.  Singh ticked off a short list of 
 
SIPDIS 
technical agreements that he predicted would be ready for 
signature then.  He added that the time was not yet ripe for 
redeploying medium-range missiles, and predicted that the 
PM's trip to Islamabad would probably happen not in March, 
but later in the year.  Singh was enthusiastic about the 
growth of Indo-Pak grassroots connections, the 
Srinagar-Muzaffarabad (and other proposed) bus links, and the 
upcoming India tour of Pakistan's cricket team.  He presented 
the Baglihar Dam impasse and Pakistani inaction against 
terrorist infrastructure as problems to overcome, but not as 
risks to the peace process.  This is also Singh's final week 
before he hands his office over to J/S (Establishment) Dilip 
Sinha and begins to prepare for his next posting as India's 
Ambassador to Israel.  Singh is one of the Indian Foreign 
Ministry's rising stars, and we commend him to Embassy Tel 
Aviv.  End Summary. 
 
Upbeat on the Indo-Pak Trajectory 
--------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Opening the February 28 discussion with PolCouns and 
Poloff with macro observations on Indo-Pak relations, J/S 
Singh was upbeat for the short term but cautioned that it 
would be "2-3 years" before he would say that the improvement 
was sustainable, stressing that "we need to make leaving the 
dialogue more difficult."  Pointing to the February 25-27 
Pakistan-India Peoples' Forum in New Delhi as the most recent 
people-to-people success, he noted that over 400 Pakistanis 
joined a like number of Indians for the weekend convention. 
 
Indo-Pak Agenda Remains Ambitious but Realistic 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
3.  (C) Turning to official interaction, Singh outlined an 
ambitious bilateral agenda for the Spring.  Dates for 
technical talks on nuclear and conventional CBMs, maritime 
CBMs, border security issues, and the Lahore-Amritsar-Nankana 
Sahib bus services would be set soon, he said, followed by 
the Composite Dialogue (Siachen, Sir Creek, Tulbul 
Navigation/Wullar Barrage, Terrorism and Narcotics 
Trafficking, Economic Cooperation, and Kashmir).  The pending 
round of talks would culminate with the Foreign Secretaries 
meeting in July.  Singh specified that the MEA would focus on 
a few items -- finalizing an agreement on pre-notification of 
missile tests and MoUs on maritime incidents and on 
accidental/unauthorized nuclear launches -- that had been 
targeted for Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran's signature in 
July.  When PolCouns asked about an agreement to move 
medium-range missiles away from border areas, Singh responded 
that it was too soon to discuss that level of CBM. 
 
4.  (C) Sharing his impressions of the "immensely successful" 
trip with Foreign Minister Natwar Singh, Singh described a 
gradual recognition in the Pakistani establishment that 
coming to closure on Kashmir would not be easy, and that 
progress would have to come incrementally.  He also observed 
that both governments had been constrained by their own past 
articulation of the issues, and were only now breaking away 
from old positions.  Asked for his impressions of the 
Pakistani political dynamic, Singh remarked that dissident 
voices remain, but there is a growing awareness that there is 
no alternative to a political settlement on bilateral issues. 
 
Keeping PM Visit in the Pocket 
------------------------------ 
 
5.  (C) Singh doubted that PM Manmohan Singh would accept 
Islamabad's invitation to visit in March, explaining that 
domestic politics would keep the PM occupied for at least the 
next several weeks.  He added that a PM visit would have to 
wait for the right timing, when it could "add to the 
process."  Singh concluded that a March trip would be too 
soon after the successful Natwar Singh visit. 
 
Srinagar Bus to Depart on Time, Others to Follow 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
6.  (C) Joking that the permits and logistical details (roads 
and bridges) necessary for the April 7 inauguration of the 
Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus were "driving me mad," Singh 
insisted that the bus would depart on time.  When asked about 
other proposed cross-LOC bus links, such as Jammu-Sialkot, he 
cautioned that the GOI would have to wait and see how well 
the first bus service goes before planning additional routes 
in Kashmir. 
 
7.  (C) Singh saw no obstacles facing the proposed 
Amritsar-Lahore-Nankana Sahib bus routes that would cross the 
international border, and he predicted that those proposals 
should be cleared during an April technical-level meeting. 
In the interim, two busses might be given special permission 
to cross the border before the official service begins: one 
on March 14 for the laying of the cornerstone for the 
connecting road, and one for the April 14 New Year festival 
of Baisakhi, which has added importance as the anniversary of 
the establishment of the present structure of Sikhism.  "The 
two Punjab Chief Ministers are successfully running their own 
foreign policy," Singh remarked lightly.  He was also upbeat 
on the Khokhrapar-Munnabao rail service starting on time in 
October, and conveyed that the Pakistanis he met in Islamabad 
were also optomistic. 
 
Cricket: The Best CBM 
--------------------- 
 
8.  (C) The best Indo-Pak CBM is cricket, Singh observed, 
reporting that three Indian visa officers camped in Lahore's 
Qadhafi Stadium had already issued over 3,000 visas to 
Pakistanis who purchased tickets for the upcoming Indian 
matches.  As a bonus, ticket-holders would be permitted to 
cross the Wagha border and then be given a free bus ride 
"that will run every five minutes" to the March 8-12 match 
site in Mohali, Punjab.  According to Indian press, 10,000 
anticipated Pakistani visitors are expected to begin arriving 
by March 5. 
 
Baglihar: Pak is Wrong, but We Will Respect Decision 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
9.  (C) Singh advised that the MEA planned to deliver to the 
World Bank its response to Pakistan's petition against 
Baglihar Dam (Ref A) on February 28.  He reiterated the 
standard GOI rebuttal that: (1) Baglihar complies with the 
Indus Water Treaty; (2) Islamabad's move to engage the World 
Bank dispute resolution process was "premature;" and (3) 
Islamabad's objections are "paranoia or political," not 
technical.  When asked by PolCouns why the MEA was not as 
politically active on this issue as the Pakistan High 
Commission, Singh responded that New Delhi is taking a "less 
aggressive approach" and "keeping the tone low."  He agreed, 
however, that if the dispute resolution process leads to a 
finding against the GOI, "we will comply."  Meanwhile, in a 
tangible vote of confidence for New Delhi's position, Finance 
Minister P Chidambaran announced that the 2005-06 Budget 
includes a line item of USD 70 million for Baglihar's 
construction and that adequate funds would be provided for 
the following year as well. 
 
Infiltration Down but Infrastructure Remains 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
10.  (C) Turning to the subject of cross-border terrorism, 
Singh shared with us the GOI assessment that infiltration 
remained low but there have been no GOP moves against 
terrorist infrastructure, reiterating that Indo-Pak 
rapprochement depended on Pakistan President Musharraf's 
"January 6, 2004 promise" not to permit terrorists to operate 
from Pakistan.  Singh pointed out that the February 24 
suicide terrorist attack in Srinagar targeted the Divisional 
Commissioner's office, which houses the Regional Passport 
Office -- the Indian agency that is to certify and issue 
entry permits for passengers on the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad 
bus.  To PolCouns' question of whether the GOI was concerned 
that terrorists would use the bus to infiltrate across the 
border (as the BJP has charged), Singh answered that it was 
not a serious threat, because the applications for entry 
permits require the same information that otherwise would 
have been used to obtain visas. 
 
Bio-Note: MEA J/S Dilip Sinha 
----------------------------- 
 
11.  (C) J/S (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran) Dilip Sinha 
assumed his current charge on March 1.  Born into an 
upper-caste Kayashta family in Bihar, one of his uncles is 
former Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha.  This connection has 
not hampered his career under the UPA government, as FM 
Natwar Singh appears to have hand-picked Sinha for his new 
posting, which is one of the most high profile in the Indian 
Foreign Service.  In his prior position as J/S 
(Establishment), he was responsible for preparing lists of 
assignments and promotions for the Foreign Secretary to 
approve, as well coordinating with the J/S (Administration) 
on running MEA's overseas Missions.  Sinha was reportedly 
tipped to replace Navtej Sarna as MEA Spokesman in July 2004, 
but that promotion fell through.  He has served in 
Bangladesh, Brazil, Egypt, Germany and Pakistan.  Career 
highlights include: 
 
-- 1978 Joined Indian Foreign Service 
-- 1986-90  First Secretary (Political), Islamabad 
-- 1991-95  Director, PMO (Chandra Shekhar/Narasimha Rao 
governments) 
-- late 1990s Posted to UN Mission/Geneva 
-- 2001-04 DCM, Dhaka 
-- 2004-05 J/S (Establishment) 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
12.  (C) This was Singh's last day Joint Secretary (Pakistan, 
Afghanistan, Iran).  His replacement, J/S (Establishment) 
Dilip Sinha, will overlap with him until mid-March and then 
Singh will prepare for his next post as India's Ambassador in 
Tel Aviv.  Singh seemed genuinely optimistic for the next six 
months of the Indo-Pak agenda, even when discussing the most 
contentious current issues such as Baglihar and cross-border 
terrorism.  Acknowledging that the process is neither 
complete nor self-sustaining, he clearly views the momentum 
of the relationship going in the right direction, especially 
when seen from the perspective of someone who worked the 2002 
near-war with Pakistan. 
MULFORD